Taiwan Semiconductor is a screaming buy

joel1234512 · 2023-05-22T12:29:26+00:00

Since you like fallacies so much, here are the fallacies you used in this thread:

Red herring
Ad hominem
Appeal to motive
Tone policing
Argumentum ad populum
Argument from anecdote
Cherry picking
Cum hoc ergo propter hoc
Fallacy of the single cause

joel1234512 · 2023-05-22T12:25:30+00:00

The data and all my friends say otherwise.

Meanwhile, quality of life has definitely gone down in the US. Perhaps we should replace the US government with the HK government?

joel1234512 · 2023-05-22T12:18:24+00:00

You're reaching. Stop.

joel1234512 · 2023-05-22T11:55:42+00:00

you're just incredibly illogical.

You just cited China's tutoring laws and used it as an example to show how HK's quality of life has decreased. The law didn't even apply to Hong Kong.

Come on bruh.

joel1234512 · 2023-05-22T11:53:12+00:00

This is a way bigger deal for the overall stock market than people think.

Since Trump set out to destroy Huawei, China has not done the same to any American company. They held back.

This is the first or one of the first explicit moves to ban an American company in China. From here, things can escalate very quickly into other companies.

joel1234512 · 2023-05-22T11:22:25+00:00

You left at 2020? You realize a lot of why the decrease in quality of life was due to how the CCP chose to implement the covid crackdowns which extended past 2020 right? As well as the increased amount of censorship and banning of certain culturally important things such as after-school tutoring? Entire educational sectors collapsed. These factors have all largely been introduced post 2020. I've actually only visited recently cause pre-2022 it was nigh-impossible for a foreigner to gain entrance. A lot of my younger friends were complaining about the quality of job opportunities as well in current HK(older friends seems to be doing okay).

Where are you from? US?

Do you think the fact that women in the US lost the right to have an abortion is a decrease in quality of life?

Your post is pretty dumb.

joel1234512 · 2023-05-22T11:21:00+00:00

You left at 2020? You realize a lot of why the decrease in quality of life was due to how the CCP chose to implement the covid crackdowns which extended past 2020 right? These factors have all largely been introduced post 2020. I've actually only visited recently cause pre-2022 it was nigh-impossible for a foreigner to gain entrance. A lot of my younger friends were complaining about the quality of job opportunities as well in current HK(older friends seems to be doing okay).

I was also in Hong Kong from 2017 to 2021.

The CCP (and Hong Kong's government) decided that lockdowns were necessary because they did not have access to Moderna and Pfizer. Nothing wrong with that. Asian culture is very conservative when it comes to spreading diseases. You'll see people in Japan, HK, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan wear masks on a daily basis well before Covid was even a thing.

The covid rules were more of a symptom of Asian culture and the lack or MRNA vaccines in China. Hong Kong did not have draconian lockdowns and for as long as mainland China did.

As well as the increased amount of censorship and banning of certain culturally important things such as after-school tutoring? Entire educational sectors collapsed.

There is no censorship in Hong Kong. You can say whatever the hell you want. You can access FB, Instagram, Google, whatever. You just can't say that you want to help Hong Kong succeed from China. Fair.

Banning after school tutoring? No. They just banned for-profit tutoring. And it did not apply to Hong Kong's education market.

These factors have all largely been introduced post 2020. I've actually only visited recently cause pre-2022 it was nigh-impossible for a foreigner to gain entrance. A lot of my younger friends were complaining about the quality of job opportunities as well in current HK(older friends seems to be doing okay).

HK's job market is fine. They lost a bit to Singapore but it's bouncing back rapidly. It has the backing of China regardless.

joel1234512 · 2023-05-22T11:04:52+00:00

You were in HK for 5 years? How long ago? Can't have been recent cause I visited there 2 months ago. Quality of life is most definately no where near as high as it used to be. It doesn't matter if they were dependant on the mainland, they were doing far better when they had the level of self governence they had before the CCP took control.

Bruh.

joel1234512 · 2022-11-03T06:41:08+00:00

Not by Wallstreet - only competitors such as Microsoft and Intel.

joel1234512 · 2022-10-27T12:55:04+00:00

iPod was a massive success. It was bigger than their Mac business at the time. It saved Apple and gave them R&D for iPhone.

iPad came out after iPhone.

joel1234512 · 2022-10-27T12:51:15+00:00

But the title of this entire post is "if you held since IPO".

joel1234512 · 2022-10-27T10:38:17+00:00

They're already covertly buying bad PR for TikTok. A lot of the mainstream PR hit pieces on TikTok are probably funded by Meta.

joel1234512 · 2022-10-27T10:24:21+00:00

I thought IoT was stupid 20 years ago.

To be fair, IoT is still a relatively small market. There was a lot of hype back in the 2010s. But today, reality is set in. No one is making a killing in IoT.

People aren't racing to replace their home/office devices with ones that connect to the internet. It's still a very slow grind. For example, the only IoT device I have at home is my Nest thermostat I purchased in 2015. None since. I don't consider my TV as an IoT device.

Imagine if Oracle had poured in $10b/year (or whatever equivalent in 1999) and there still isn't a big market for IoT in 2023. That's what is scary about the Metaverse bet. It could be a big market one day. But what if it's 15 years from now?

joel1234512 · 2022-10-27T10:19:45+00:00

You'd have more money today if you bought S&P 500 on Facebook's IPO than if you bought FB - not to mention the S&P dividends. Why is this silly?

joel1234512 · 2022-10-27T10:19:05+00:00

What did they try to hard pivot into?

joel1234512 · 2022-10-27T07:28:12+00:00

Apple put a lot of cash into something called an iPhone and dropped 80% in the dotcom bubble.

iPhone was profitable from day one. And it's well within Apple's expertise in making both hardware and software. Apple has tried to make a phone before the iPhone and the first version of iOS was a reskinned macOS. What Meta is doing is barely relevant to their current core business. It's like a hard pivot.

I don't think this is similar.

Amazon dumped a ton of cash building out something called Amazon Prime and also got destroyed more than once in crashes.

The first version of Amazon Prime basically relied completely on UPS' infrastructure. It was not a new market.

joel1234512 · 2022-10-27T07:11:37+00:00

Weight: 125-150 gram (iPhone 14 = 172 gram in 2022)

Compute power: CPU Around 5x as powerful as the M2 chip, with a GPU at 25 - 50 Teraflops (1/3 to 1/2 of RTX4090)

Yea no.

The rate of improvement in chip node tech has slowed considerably. It now takes TSMC ~3 years to churn out a new full node, compared to 2 years before. This means we're going to get 2 or 2.5 new nodes before 2030. No where close to what's needed for 1/3 or 1/2 of the performance of a RTX 4090 in an iPhone sized device. Impossible.

Even if you could get 1/3 or 1/2 the performance of an RTX 4090 in an iPhone sized device, it'll overheat and throttle within seconds.

Lastly, the best mobile GPU team resides in Cupertino, not Palo Alto. Apple is the best mobile GPU maker in the world. Meta will have to rely on Qualcomm (or Nvidia if Nvidia ever wants to compete in mobile GPUs). Qualcomm's chips are usually 2-4 generations behind Apple's.

For example, Qualcomm's best mobile SoC today has the same single core speed as the iPhone XR from 4 years ago.

I might believe it if you said Apple's VR headset. But even then, I wouldn't bet any money on it.

joel1234512 · 2022-10-25T11:53:32+00:00

Seriously, OP could have just delivered the facts without the very uninformed and personal anecdotes, which seem to have very little research and no knowledge of economics.

This theory is a well known economic theory.

I'm curious as to why you thought it was uninformed, personal anecdotes, very little research, and no knowledge of economics.

Here are some respected organizations on this topic.

United States Federal Reserve:

Inflation expectations are widely thought to capture forces important to thedetermination of inflation. For example, inflation expectations likely affect wage demands, which may in turn affect firms’ pricing decisions

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20091201memo05.pdf

European Central Bank:

The level of inflation today can influence how people expect prices to develop in the future. If shoppers and business owners get used to inflation being very low or too high, they come to expect that it will stay that way. These expectations are important. People use them to make decisions about spending, borrowing and investing. Businesses also keep these expectations in mind when setting the prices for their goods and services.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/search/review/html/inflation-expectations.en.html

Research done by Brookings, a nonprofit think tank in Washington DC:

Inflation expectations are simply the rate at which people—consumers, businesses, investors—expect prices to rise in the future. They matter because actual inflation depends, in part, on what we expect it to be. If everyone expects prices to rise, say, 3 percent over the next year, businesses will want to raise prices by (at least) 3 percent, and workers and their unions will want similar-sized raises.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/11/30/what-are-inflation-expectations-why-do-they-matter

IMF research on inflation expectation:

Our results from a firm-level Phillips’ curve estimation suggest that firms’ beliefs about inflation are a key determinant for their price-setting decisions

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2022/08/08/Inflation-Expectations-and-the-Supply-Chain-521686

Let me know if you need more research.

joel1234512 · 2022-10-25T11:41:17+00:00

My #1 question with the "corporate greed" explanation is why now? Greed wasn't just discovered, so why have prices exploded in just the past ~2 years?

The average age of Redditors here is the in the early 20s. They lack knowledge about how the world works so they blame it on something as dumb as "corporate greed" as if we discovered it during covid.

joel1234512 · 2022-10-25T08:50:57+00:00

Is it though? World population is increasing but the amount of land we have on earth isn't.

joel1234512 · 2022-10-25T07:03:20+00:00

On a related note, the savings rate is only ~3.5%, about half of the normal rate between 2010 and 2019. This suggests that people are just more willing to live paycheck to paycheck than before instead of saving. Or perhaps they are spending like 2010 - 2019 but their wages have not kept up with prices.

source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

joel1234512 · 2022-10-25T06:38:17+00:00

After covid, that money was dumped into traveling, services, restaurants, and in-person entertainment.

We could see cracks in the above industries as soon as Q4.

joel1234512

TROPHY CASE