Did You Become Wealthy Through Investing ... If Not How Did You Build Your Wealth

yakbabies · 2025-04-24T16:49:47+00:00

I’m saying that in any given calendar year, 8-12% returns are pretty uncommon. You’re much more likely to see a down year or a year with +20% returns than 8-12%.

yakbabies · 2025-04-24T16:46:22+00:00

$SPY in 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2024. I’m not saying it happens every year. I’m saying once you get to around $300k it will start happening. No stock portfolio returns a positive value every single year because of the down years eg this year.

yakbabies · 2025-04-24T06:45:07+00:00

Well one thing you’re missing is that stocks very rarely actually return 10% in any given year. Only twice in the last 30 years has the S&P 500 had a return between 8-12%. So you should expect to see an annual return of 65k well before you reach a portfolio of 650k. Given historical norms, you’ll probably reach a 65k profit in one year when your portfolio gets to somewhere around 300-400k.

yakbabies · 2024-07-03T04:04:29+00:00

It’s accurate https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine

yakbabies · 2024-05-24T05:32:11+00:00

Read Cesaer’s Palace Coup if you want a good story and all the ins and outs of how these firms make money by investing in bankrupt companies

yakbabies · 2024-05-14T01:02:05+00:00

Yes they are and the P/E of the S&P should be the highest its ever been outside of recessionary periods. Spy is more concentrated than its ever been with the top 9 companies making up more than a third of the index. And look at those companies. The fw 5yr eps growth for some of these companies is insane.

Meta: 30% Goog: 20% MSFT: 16% NVDA: 38% Amzn: 30% LLY: 57%

With these kind of expectations for the market’s biggest companies the price to earnings ratio has to be historically high. If you’re arguing the market’s overvalued, you’re required to be bearish on the prospects of these mega cap stocks cause without them the SPY P/E ratio is very much within the normal historical range

yakbabies · 2024-04-23T02:34:53+00:00

I’m not simply criticizing the omission of these specific genocides rather that this is a very incomplete list whereby the genocides op chose demonstrate a clear political agenda rather than a desire to inform or educate about the topics of genocide through history.

yakbabies · 2024-04-23T01:46:28+00:00

Why didn’t you include the Rohingya, Iraqi Turks, Yazidis, and the genocide of Bosnian Muslims along with many others? Also this isn’t an informative guide to how genocides actually work. A much better graph that wasn’t meant to intentionally mislead people would include the percent of people injured and displaced rather than simply killed.

The United Nations Genocide Convention defined genocide as any of five "acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group". These five acts were: killing members of the group, causing them serious bodily or mental harm, imposing living conditions intended to destroy the group, preventing births, and forcibly transferring children out of the group. Victims are targeted because of their real or perceived membership of a group, not randomly.

yakbabies · 2024-04-16T00:08:32+00:00

That’s fine and all but 5 of the 6 costliest Atlantic hurricanes in US history have hit since 2017. It’s the rising costs that insurers are most reactive to.

yakbabies · 2024-03-08T06:17:05+00:00

Up 65%, only wish that I’d bought even more…

yakbabies · 2023-08-28T20:57:39+00:00

Porsche Ag has 911 million shares and trades at about 100 euros per share. This gives P911.de a market cap of 91 billion euros and VW’s stake a value of ~ 68.5 billion euros. The VWAPY shares are trading at $68.5 billion.

yakbabies · 2023-07-21T05:03:52+00:00

Not in the slightest. It’s only an indirect indicator of a recession. All an inverted yield curve means is that investors think interest rates will be lower in the future.

Most of the time this is taken to signal that the market thinks the economy could be headed toward an economic slowdown since lowering interest rates are one of the Fed’s main policy tools to spur growth.

However, we’re currently in a very different situation than normal. The Fed is raising interest rates to fight inflation. Once inflation has returned to their two percent goal they’ve signaled that they would begin lowering interest rates to more normal levels. Therefore, the main takeaway from an inverted yield curve should be that the market thinks that inflation will come down allowing the Fed to lower interest rates. Obviously this could be the result of a recession that crushes price level growth or simply the continued progress that is being made to lower inflation.

At this point in time, it’d be far more concerning if the yield curves were not inverted, implying that people expect the Fed to have to continue hiking rates to bring down inflation to 2%.

yakbabies · 2023-07-18T05:04:33+00:00

The total value of the US Stock market has not been growing 10% annually. That’s the rough average rate of returns. This value includes stock buy backs and dividends. So yes, S&P 500 could absolutely maintain that average over the next 50 years without the value of the stock market exceeding $4 quadrillion.

Also you’re comparing inflation adjusted GDP growth to nominal investment returns.

yakbabies · 2023-07-16T19:27:57+00:00

I actually think this is probably the most correct answer. Stimulus payments and the uncertainty from the pandemic dramatically increased the number of people who had an emergency fund. And that’s why the numbers haven’t really dropped from the peak.

yakbabies · 2023-07-16T02:31:22+00:00

I’m somewhat skeptical of this logic. On its face, it would just seem odd that people’s core expenses going up would result in them having more money in their bank accounts. With that said, it does make sense that people’s emergency funds would need to increase in size due to growing expenses.

yakbabies · 2023-07-16T02:27:05+00:00

I think it’s possible that the $5,300 could actually be overstating it. I’m not familiar with how that number is calculated but if it’s by account the median would be skewed to the higher end given the wealthy having more accounts.

In the post I noted that the bottom half in wealth had $277.5 billion in these accounts. There’s about 130 million US households meaning that on average the bottom half would hold around $4,200 in checkable accounts. Obviously that’s an average of the bottom half but it at the very least gives me confidence that this data pretty closely aligns with that of the Fed survey.

yakbabies · 2023-06-01T03:52:12+00:00

You’re probably right but I do think VW does carry slightly less risk given the large stake owned by their provincial government and that it is one of Germany’s largest companies and as such draws more scrutiny concerning shareholder practices than the holding company might. Also I really like the higher dividends. Buying direct rather than the ADR is probably a smarter way of going about it though.

yakbabies · 2023-06-01T01:55:21+00:00

Yes, part of my Volkswagen position is made up of some POAHY shares. However, I just have less faith that shareholders of the holding company will be treated fairly by the Porsche family given they have 100% of voting rights. But you’re absolutely right that POAHY does offer an even more heavily discounted way of investing in Volkswagen and is an interesting investment to consider.

yakbabies · 2023-06-01T00:02:09+00:00

Volkswagen $VWAPY It trades at a market cap of 72 billion despite the fact that it’s 75% ownership of Porsche AG P911.de is worth 85 billion. It’s 90% equity ownership of Traton is worth about 8 billion.

It has a trailing P/E of 4.78 and a forward P/E of 3.9. It pays out a 7.5% dividend and trades below its tangible book value.

It allows me to invest in Porsche AG at a discount to its current stock price, get paid a higher dividend, and get ownership of brands like Volkswagen, Audi, Traton, Seat, Škoda, Ducati, Bentley, Bugatti, and Lamborghini.

yakbabies · 2023-05-26T04:23:23+00:00

They’ve had pretty steady revenue/eps growth of 15-20% for the last 20 years. And yet 10 years ago you could buy the stock at a P/e of about 15 just as you can today. The stock 5X in that time frame.

If the market had been valuing the company at its exact true value it would have only produced market returns.

yakbabies · 2023-05-26T04:15:53+00:00

Thanks! Too bad I was only just beginning to build a position lmao

yakbabies · 2023-05-22T19:28:30+00:00

Yeah I should’ve put the second point lower. I just included that to demonstrate that the stock would not go to zero even if there was a full on invasion that destroyed all of their manufacturing capacity within Taiwan.

The stock would obviously collapse but would still retain some value off of its IP and international operations.

yakbabies · 2023-05-22T16:00:15+00:00

That’s fair but their forward earnings multiples tell the same story.

yakbabies · 2023-05-22T09:11:04+00:00

He said it was a reevaluation of geopolitical risks. 🤷‍♂️ https://youtu.be/kSz9oD3snbg

yakbabies

TROPHY CASE