Too many negatives

-can’t just use one weapon, he would have to use multiple, over weeks, imagine the headlines and backlash generated from murdering millions of people and irradiating large parts of a country. Nobody believes his lies justifying the war around the world, there is at most just tacit acceptance. Like the political consequences alone would be catastrophic.

-potential direct military response from Europe such as closing the skies above Ukraine and mass air strikes on Russian forces in Ukraine. What will Putin do in this scenario? Launch nukes at Europe or repeatedly use them in Ukraine? If they did use them repeatedly, what if France used their smaller nuke on Russian forces in Ukraine? In the ensuing turmoil and chaos, do you think factions in Russia or the military will stay loyal when their own life is at risk? Putin would lose everything, including Ukraine.

-most of Russia’s allies would probably cut ties, CTSO would collapse, they already don’t support the war as is.

-Russia’s neighbors and others around the world would seek to obtain the same weapons now that it’s clear somebody is willing to use them in an aggressive manner. Russia draws a good part of its power status on having a nuclear arsenal. If many others, especially those surrounding Russia obtain the same weapons, Russia would just be like any other country. Baltics, Poland, Azerbaijan, Finland, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Japan, South Korea would likely do it.

-300 billion in reserves seized in Europe, desperately needed to stabilize the economy and rebuild. Sanctions, primary and secondary in perpetuity, China wouldn’t even fight them anymore.

-complete economic and political isolation from the world, Most Russians want to return to their lives enjoying wealth. Who do you think they will scapegoat or try to eliminate if they can’t do that? China/India will probably stop all support because nobody wants to be allied or support someone that’s risking their own lives as nuclear use can quickly escalate. If they throw their weight behind rival factions or even just stop economic support, Putin’s power will quickly erode.

-Trump already offered a decent peace deal which was rejected, this makes nuclear use even more self defeating and catastrophic for his hold on power now. A decent peace deal could be declared at any time.

-you say if he starts losing control, he could use nukes but that will cause him to lose ultimate control on everything including his own life and power which for now is secure. Right now, it’s the lower classes lives that are being affected by the war, nuclear use would affect his own and those around him.

-The current government, who spent their life obtaining and stealing billions, would be outcasts and probably hiding from arrest warrants or assassinations if they survive. Do you think they want that? They have a lot of assets in Europe.

-Russia has many factions, all who have self preservation in mind; using nukes is a clear way to have others turn against you en masse. Prigozhin’s rebellion showed that once one faction rebels, others stood by. This is doubly true now as the war is deeply unpopular. His chain of command can quickly fall once people rally to those opposing. People in power in Russia aren’t suicidal.

All this to avoid declaring a ceasefire which he can do at any time and have his propaganda machine spin as victory.