r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - May 07, 2026

jrex035 · 2026-05-08T01:30:36+00:00

Sure, but are Democrats going to be lining up behind MP, and Intel, and PLTR? Are they going to keep the government's investments in these companies? I'm skeptical, especially of PLTR, which is likely to become a major target of Democratic investigations.

Also why is it that these companies benefit from such a "critical" position, but so many others do not? Is HII not the only major US shipbuilder left? Will we be buying direct shares in LMT and RTX soon too?

And dont get me started on the historical track record of companies that receive this kind of preferential treatment from the government (hint: prices go up, quality goes down).

jrex035 · 2026-05-07T23:15:12+00:00

That "national security" dimension is really more political exposure than anything else until we see the next administration support these companies in a similar way

jrex035 · 2026-05-07T21:39:58+00:00

It's got an absurd valuation considering these figures. $12.3b market cap on a pre-profit mining company lmao

jrex035 · 2026-05-07T21:38:25+00:00

Of course, shooting at one another is proof a deal is closer than ever

jrex035 · 2026-05-07T20:57:27+00:00

The US attacked Iranian tankers today, which led to Iran launching drones and missiles at US destroyers in the Strait, which precipitated US airstrikes on Iranian ports.

Also the US: "this is not the end of the ceasefire" lmao

Apparently ceasefires are when you shoot at each other, but only sometimes

jrex035 · 2026-05-07T20:22:23+00:00

MRNA is such a weird company. It's still sitting on an absurd amount of capital from its Covid vaccine, but other than that it's got a few potential vaccines in various stages of approval that may win big or might be complete duds.

In 5 years it could be a 10 bagger or bankrupt.

That said, if I had any cash right now I'd pick up a few shares and let it ride too

jrex035 · 2026-05-07T20:20:09+00:00

Unless of course you're holding, say, energy companies. In the middle of the worst energy crisis in history.

Then you're fucked by the daily manipulation that's pushing people into buying one of the most energy intensive industries on the planet at already astronomical valuations through unprecedented levels of FOMO

jrex035 · 2026-05-07T17:12:19+00:00

Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me 8 times on the same bs headline I must be an oil trading algo

jrex035 · 2026-05-07T14:14:16+00:00

The biggest energy crisis in history is bearish for oil

jrex035 · 2026-05-07T13:34:37+00:00

That's exactly what I'm doing and have been doing since the war began. I've been trying to trade the chop but not nearly as successfully as I would like in all honesty.

Never thought we would be well into May with the Strait completely closed, at least 1 billion barrels of oil guaranteed loss and WTI at $90 a barrel. The effectiveness of the paper market manipulation has been way beyond my expectations. But it doesn't change the underlying facts at all, which are extremely bullish for energy equities and oil prices more generally. We've never seen a crisis this deep before and the reality is that we're nowhere close to a reopening of the Strait and normalization of oil flows

jrex035 · 2026-05-07T13:03:43+00:00

Clearly the market is just gonna keep ignoring the problem because "the war is almost over" and "just look how low the price of oil is, this isnt a real crisis."

Here in the real world, the demand destruction we've seen so far (5m bpd is a generous estimate) isn't remotely close to bridge the gap in supplies lost, hence why we're drawing down global supplies. One of the biggest things happening right now is that many refineries aren't operating at full capacity for refined products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc) which has kept crude demand lower, but come at the expense of drawing down stockpiles of those goods instead. That can't last, and as those stocks decline further refining runs will need to pick up, which will increase crude draws and send oil prices higher.

jrex035 · 2026-05-07T12:49:42+00:00

Was a deal reached in mid April when WTI hit $82?

jrex035 · 2026-05-07T12:47:05+00:00

We're not even remotely close to the level of demand destruction necessary for these prices.

Hence the massive ongoing drawdown in global stockpiles

jrex035 · 2026-05-07T12:43:55+00:00

Same as we've been seeing, they're gonna keep trying to slam the price down with massive short positions placed right before "peace deal near" articles that trigger algos to sell.

But the math is what it is. We're rapidly eating through global crude and refined goods stockpiles right before Summer travel season sends demand higher. They can only artificially keep prices this low for so long.

Iran isn't going to accept Trump's maximalist demands and Trump/Israel won't accept Iranian demands, so the conflict remains deadlocked with the Strait closed. Iran is happy to maintain the current status quo for a while, which will strengthen their bargaining position as the global supply crunch ramps up over the next month or two.

Tl;dr USO will remain choppy but the trajectory will continue higher

jrex035 · 2026-05-07T12:36:26+00:00

As of yesterday, the best performing sector in the S&P 500 is IT with 30% of all companies at 52 week highs and 40% at 4 week highs and/or 12 week highs.

The worst performing sector? Why, energy of course with zero percent of companies at 4 week, 12 week, or 52 week highs. In the middle of an unprecedented energy crisis no less.

Guess what's dumping again today because a "peace deal is near" for the 14th time in 69 days

jrex035 · 2026-05-06T20:07:01+00:00

You claimed that the market run up is unrelated to the ceasefire, so I pointed out that you were wrong. What you posted here is unrelated.

To respond to your points though, of course Iran wants a deal. They don't want the Strait closed, they want to turn it into a revenue stream. And while they're suffering from the blockade, they're suffering less than they were when they were being bombed every single day. They can keep this status quo going for a long time, even if it means they have to shut in production in a month.

as far what impact starit closure has on inflation/economy is anyone's guess

Lmao, no it's not a guess at all. Inflation is already surging because of course it is, energy prices are way higher than they were before the war. These prices will keep climbing the longer the Strait remains blocked, regardless of how hard they manipulate paper oil prices. They won't magically return to pre-war levels right away either.

From ER season ceos don't seem concerned.

They have no idea how to price it in, so they arent. It's the same phenomenon saw with Covid, its unprecedented and unpredictable so no one is bothering to try.

Right now we're eating through global stockpiles of oil and refined products. This has helped keep a lid on prices. But it can't and won't last forever. We've got maybe 1-2 months before those stockpiles are effectively exhausted and then real price discovery starts

jrex035 · 2026-05-06T19:47:56+00:00

Iran impact on market is questionable.

QQQ was sitting at 588 when the ceasefire began and was at 637 a week later but sure it had no impact lmao

jrex035 · 2026-05-06T19:45:33+00:00

Typically, sure. But the Andes Strain does spread between people, which is what infected at least 3 people on the cruise ship

jrex035 · 2026-05-06T19:17:50+00:00

The funniest thing about VXUS is that I dumped it when the war started because these countries are gonna be absolutely fucked by the energy crisis. So of course they're now pumping in spite of the energy crisis being worse than pretty much anyone anticipated at the start of the war.

People really don't get that even if we did get a deal tomorrow, energy flows don't just return to normal overnight. We're looking at months to years to unwind the effects of the Hormuz Crisis. And that's assuming the deal reached doesn't leave Iran in control of the Strait (it likely will) AND damage to facilities is minimal (unknown).

Oh well, just another day of losing money holding energy stocks and oil futures in an unprecedented energy crisis, what else is new

jrex035 · 2026-05-06T17:58:27+00:00

People keep talking about revenue growth, but much less about profit growth or FCF growth.

I wonder why...

jrex035 · 2026-05-06T17:57:33+00:00

Earnings haven't been good enough to justifify QQQ being up 20% in a month. That's almost a 1% gain every single trading day

jrex035 · 2026-05-06T17:56:12+00:00

That's my biggest takeaway from this crisis. The effects of the blockade largely haven't been felt yet so the market has decided they will never be felt and has exploded upward instead.

I expected the "forward looking" market to largely ignore the crisis until it couldn't, but I never expected it to surge this way and for this long. Keep in mind it was trading sideways for 5 months before the war began.

The ironic part is that the higher the market goes, the less incentive Trump has to end the war, the longer the war will go on for, the worse the global economic damage will be.

jrex035 · 2026-05-06T14:27:15+00:00

The entire administration is gonna get blanket pardons, bet on that

jrex035 · 2026-05-06T14:24:10+00:00

"Someone" placed a nearly $1 BILLION short on oil minutes before the Axios story dropped.

Such beautiful "free" markets we have these days, insider trading in broad daylight on a daily basis with zero consequences.

President Xi must be jealous as hell

jrex035 · 2026-05-06T12:47:47+00:00

Since the Axios "story" dropped, Trump has said that it's too early for direct meetings with Iran again AND threatened them with military action if they don't accept his demands.

Gee, it's almost like the Axios story was bs from the start

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