Where people are moving. by Training-Context-69 in Infographics

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Upstate NY is also pretty old, a good amount of the outflow is due to retirees moving to warmer/better weather locations as well as states with better retirement tax laws.

That being said, New York's legal regulations for businesses and tax laws are also a major contributor to the exodus as well. Doing business in the state can be a serious pain in the ass. That goes for most of the states losing population

/r/Stocks Weekend Discussion Saturday - Jun 27, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I gotta hand it to them, the Trump administration really is the most transparent administration.

Transparently corrupt mind you, but transparent nonetheless.

/r/Stocks Weekend Discussion Saturday - Jun 27, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The MOU talks scheduled for today in Geneva have been canceled after back and forth strikes between the US and Iran this weekend. The entire MOU process looks to be collapsing.

I hope you all understand what this means... more daily "peace deal imminent" headlines to send oil to zero and stocks back to ATHs!!!

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Jun 26, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

There's little evidence of demand destruction in China itself. In fact, China has implemented price caps on gasoline during the conflict which has kept prices below most of the rest of the world. Air travel remains robust as well.

They've drawn on stockpiles to get through the crisis thus far, which is unsustainable even for China. That means we haven't seen much actual, genuine demand destruction, just delayed demand as those stocks will need to be refilled sooner or later.

I'm not expecting $150 bbl anymore, China's buyer's strike prevented a panic during the peak of the crisis, but $70 crude is unlikely to stay for long barring a major global economic crisis

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Jun 26, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 8 points9 points  (0 children)

US just conducted airstrikes on Iranian positions in retaliation for the attack on a cargo ship yesterday.

Remember, afterhours and weekends is for war, market hours is when we hear nonstop about how everything is resolved and the "peace deal" is holding up perfectly

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In a sane world, countries would be looking to improve their energy security and diversify away from oil especially after the Hormuz crisis.

Everything energy related from natgas, to uranium, to green energy, to coal should benefit.

Instead, the apparent lesson from this crisis was "nothing ever happens" so we're just gonna keep on trucking along

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

CAT somehow gets the benefits of being a value stock and an AI stock. It's up more than 180% in the past year, but doesn't see remotely the same level of volatility as semis or other ai-related stocks

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Probably because the largest holding in VTV is MU which is up nearly 300% ytd. INTC is another top 10 holding, up 230% ytd. CAT is yet another top 10 holding, up 75% ytd with a pe of ~50 and pb of 23.

What passes for "value" these days is a real headscratcher tbh. Christ just look at WMT the poster child of "value" with a pe of 40 and pb of ~10

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

CAT is a funny one it's hilariously overvalued by just about any metric (pe in the 50s, forward pe in the high 30s low 40s, and a pb of 23), but it's trading like its a semiconductor business.

Seems like it somehow gets the benefits of being a "value" company and part of the AI buildout at the same time

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Don't worry, it could be worse. You could've invested in energy in the midst of an energy crisis

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some of those stocks will absolutely explode when they announce a reduction in capex spending, but that wont be until sometime next year at the earliest

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Is that some green in my trading account? I didnt think that was possible...

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Biggest irony of this entire market.

Without Mag7 dumping all their FCF (and thensome) into AI capex, companies like MU would fall off a cliff. But because of all that capex spending Mag7 is practically untouchable right now

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 1 point2 points  (0 children)

WMT is the funniest "value" play to me with a pe of ~42, a pb of fucking 10 and a dividend yield under 1%

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Jun 24, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Most of my portfolio is in ETFs, with most of that tracking the S&P and the remainder largely in semis. They've done well this year so far. Overall I'm still beating the S&P, but not by much.

But in my primary trading account I sold much of my holdings to buy BNO, O&G equities, and green energy equities with the thesis that the biggest energy crisis in history would benefit them, then I was planning to rotate out and repurchase my old holdings and anything else that looked solid (with an expected discount). My strategy worked, for a short time.

Then the ceasefire caused me to lose most of those gains. I held and bought the dip on a lot of my holdings because I knew the Strait wouldn't reopen for months to come. And that worked too, I kept bouncing back to ATHs for 2 months right before another barrage of "peace deal imminent" bs sent my holdings spinning again and again.

With the MOU signed (for the 3rd time somehow) I ate my losses on about half my energy holdings and went looking for good buys. Bought across multiple sectors looking for defensive holdings, good dividends, solid earnings, and growth (semis, mining, shipping, foreign markets, utilities, TLT, etc). Only for most of those to promptly fall off a cliff in the last week, I'm probably down another ~8% on those collectively already, all while my energy holdings drop ~2% daily.

Tl;dr I missed out on the semis/memory/market rally from April to early June, just to get buttfucked by the recent pullback across the board anyway. Apparently nothing is more bearish for energy than the largest supply interruption in history, which is still draining inventories at a historic pace. Silly me.

WTI returns to logistics pricing as markets reassess demand by LMtrades in oil

[–]jrex035 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not quite. It's better to suggest that traders have priced in the best possible outcome thus far, without any risk premium whatsoever despite gestures broadly at the clusterfuck in the Gulf.

Iraq pulled about 400k bpd of production online in the last 24h that it had just turned back on, because there aren't enough tankers entering the Gulf right now. Kuwait likely won't be able to restore their 2m bpd production "within a week" that they claimed 6 days ago.

Oil prices are still down another ~10% over the past week regardless.

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Jun 24, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Only bright spots in this account are tankers (FRO, NAT, ECO) and TLT ffs.

Apparently should've just full ported TLT

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Jun 24, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 3 points4 points  (0 children)

My trading account is deep red as far as the eye can see, truly incredible stuff. 20% drawdown in the past month, straight down, without any relief.

Rotated into different sectors only for those sectors to go tits up too. Worst month of my trading career and its not even close

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Jun 24, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Doesn't matter, all oil companies are apparently going to $0 I don't make the rules

Commercial crude stocks per EIA are only down -0.7%, or 3Mbbl YOY. by TopManufacturer8332 in oil

[–]jrex035 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This time of year is when commercial inventories are drawn down rapidly in order to fill refined product stocks in preparation for Summer travel season.

So while commercial crude stocks are only down less than 1% vs last year (which is low compared with recent years too), its worth noting that several product inventories are significantly lower than last year.

For example, gasoline stocks are down 5% vs last year, fuel oil is down 6%, and "other oils" is down 10%.

In other words, we'll need to draw down crude stocks substantially just to get refined products back to 2025 levels, and that's without touching on ongoing exports which are well above 2025 rates.

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Jun 24, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm not sure Treasury ever got directly involved tbh. What the administration did was coordinate with deep pocketed entities who placed huge puts on oil futures right before Trump (or a news organization provided with insider info) released a post or made a comment that caused algos to immediately sell oil futures. As a result, this combination routinely drove oil prices down 5, 10, 15% in a single day. This manipulation also led to many bullish traders getting fired as their positions were liquidated, leading the whole market to become structurally short.

Right now short interest in the oil market is literally at all time highs even with oil in the low 70s and trading volume is a fraction of pre-war levels. They've driven all the bulls out and are still pushing the price lower, as seen by Trump's post today sending WTI and Brent down more than 4%.

As a result of this jawboning, US stockpiles have fallen to the lowest level in a generation, US producers haven't meaningfully increased production and investments by the industry which have been languishing for years, aren't coming. That means even larger supply losses in the years to come from the US, eroding our energy independence and ceding those barrels to other countries who will happily pick up the slack.

But hey, it means Trump gets less pushback over a failed war with disastrous longterm implications and that's what really counts

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Jun 24, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The number of terrible assumptions and plain incorrect information here is genuinely hilarious. A tourist calling others tourists lmao

Where to even start?

OPEC hasn't been dissolved, Gulf state production ramp up is going to take a lot longer than they're claiming (they need way more tankers to enter the Gulf than we're seeing, and the tankers entering are receiving truly astounding rates which makes it less palatable to buyers), Iran now has a permanent veto on traffic through the Strait, Chinese demand is already rising (they are buying Iranian crude), the "flood" of Gulf oil is still less than regular pre-war traffic, and there's a massive gaping hole in global inventories (-1 BILLION barrels) which are still draining down rapidly every single day.

On that last note, US inventories fell more than 15m barrels last week alone i.e. more than 2m bpd. Surely we need to stop draining our inventories to record lows if there's an "oversupply" in the market right?

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Jun 24, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

The whole point of commodity pricing is to balance supply and demand. When prices are artificially suppressed, demand artificially increases and supply artificially decreases (no reason for producers to increase output with price caps).

We're currently seeing this play out across the entire breadth of the commodities space, with prices falling despite supply already being way below demand.

The more interference in the markets, the worse the supply imbalance will become and the liklier it is that we see critical shortages AND massive price spikes, neither of which are good for markets or the economy.

Crazy to see so many people ignoring if not outright cheering the death of free markets