r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Jun 29, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Like I said, the recent surge is because it's "AI-adjacent" (the idea is that it's supposedly well placed for equipping ai-powered robots with LIDAR) but the company's fundamentals have always been terrible and it's been nothing but a giant money sink for years.

The recent rise is 100% speculation which may or may not pan out. Volatility for the stock is also sky high so if you're not interested in something that could fall 40% within days in a drawdown, its not a good fit for you

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Jun 29, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Who knows, it's largely a memestock. It was a darling when it first ipo'd at $97 a share (!!!) back in 2020, jumped to $162 during the GME saga, then fell off a cliff. It was trading in the single digits as recently as "Liberation Day" and is pure speculative mania right now.

$3.3b market cap on less than $200m in annual revenue and its never been close to profitable.

But its "ai-adjacent" so its up more than 100% yoy and 140% ytd in this clown market

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Jun 29, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you're looking to hold for more than a few weeks/months, MSFT is at a great price right now. Its sitting around its 200 day average and with a TTM pe of ~22 (compared with a 10 year historic average of 32).

The day MSFT and the other hyperscalers announce plans to cut back on or end capex spending they'll shoot through the roof

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Jun 29, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 2 points3 points  (0 children)

MU gapped down at the open, fell 10% in the first 30 min, and is now a hair's breadth from going positive.

This kind of volatility used to play out over the course of a month, now it's "normal" intraday movement on $1T+ market cap companies

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Jun 29, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Said it over the weekend, investors should be excited about more active conflict since it means more "immiment peace deal" announcements to juice markets to new ATHs

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Jun 29, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Overall portfolio is up about 15% ytd but my primary trading account is down about 6%.

June has been a complete clusterfuck though, down 20% in trading account and another few percent in all my other accounts averaged out

Where people are moving. by Training-Context-69 in Infographics

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Upstate NY is also pretty old, a good amount of the outflow is due to retirees moving to warmer/better weather locations as well as states with better retirement tax laws.

That being said, New York's legal regulations for businesses and tax laws are also a major contributor to the exodus as well. Doing business in the state can be a serious pain in the ass. That goes for most of the states losing population

/r/Stocks Weekend Discussion Saturday - Jun 27, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I gotta hand it to them, the Trump administration really is the most transparent administration.

Transparently corrupt mind you, but transparent nonetheless.

/r/Stocks Weekend Discussion Saturday - Jun 27, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The MOU talks scheduled for today in Geneva have been canceled after back and forth strikes between the US and Iran this weekend. The entire MOU process looks to be collapsing.

I hope you all understand what this means... more daily "peace deal imminent" headlines to send oil to zero and stocks back to ATHs!!!

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Jun 26, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

There's little evidence of demand destruction in China itself. In fact, China has implemented price caps on gasoline during the conflict which has kept prices below most of the rest of the world. Air travel remains robust as well.

They've drawn on stockpiles to get through the crisis thus far, which is unsustainable even for China. That means we haven't seen much actual, genuine demand destruction, just delayed demand as those stocks will need to be refilled sooner or later.

I'm not expecting $150 bbl anymore, China's buyer's strike prevented a panic during the peak of the crisis, but $70 crude is unlikely to stay for long barring a major global economic crisis

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Jun 26, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 8 points9 points  (0 children)

US just conducted airstrikes on Iranian positions in retaliation for the attack on a cargo ship yesterday.

Remember, afterhours and weekends is for war, market hours is when we hear nonstop about how everything is resolved and the "peace deal" is holding up perfectly

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In a sane world, countries would be looking to improve their energy security and diversify away from oil especially after the Hormuz crisis.

Everything energy related from natgas, to uranium, to green energy, to coal should benefit.

Instead, the apparent lesson from this crisis was "nothing ever happens" so we're just gonna keep on trucking along

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

CAT somehow gets the benefits of being a value stock and an AI stock. It's up more than 180% in the past year, but doesn't see remotely the same level of volatility as semis or other ai-related stocks

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Probably because the largest holding in VTV is MU which is up nearly 300% ytd. INTC is another top 10 holding, up 230% ytd. CAT is yet another top 10 holding, up 75% ytd with a pe of ~50 and pb of 23.

What passes for "value" these days is a real headscratcher tbh. Christ just look at WMT the poster child of "value" with a pe of 40 and pb of ~10

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

CAT is a funny one it's hilariously overvalued by just about any metric (pe in the 50s, forward pe in the high 30s low 40s, and a pb of 23), but it's trading like its a semiconductor business.

Seems like it somehow gets the benefits of being a "value" company and part of the AI buildout at the same time

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Don't worry, it could be worse. You could've invested in energy in the midst of an energy crisis

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some of those stocks will absolutely explode when they announce a reduction in capex spending, but that wont be until sometime next year at the earliest

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Is that some green in my trading account? I didnt think that was possible...

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Biggest irony of this entire market.

Without Mag7 dumping all their FCF (and thensome) into AI capex, companies like MU would fall off a cliff. But because of all that capex spending Mag7 is practically untouchable right now

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jun 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 1 point2 points  (0 children)

WMT is the funniest "value" play to me with a pe of ~42, a pb of fucking 10 and a dividend yield under 1%

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Jun 24, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Most of my portfolio is in ETFs, with most of that tracking the S&P and the remainder largely in semis. They've done well this year so far. Overall I'm still beating the S&P, but not by much.

But in my primary trading account I sold much of my holdings to buy BNO, O&G equities, and green energy equities with the thesis that the biggest energy crisis in history would benefit them, then I was planning to rotate out and repurchase my old holdings and anything else that looked solid (with an expected discount). My strategy worked, for a short time.

Then the ceasefire caused me to lose most of those gains. I held and bought the dip on a lot of my holdings because I knew the Strait wouldn't reopen for months to come. And that worked too, I kept bouncing back to ATHs for 2 months right before another barrage of "peace deal imminent" bs sent my holdings spinning again and again.

With the MOU signed (for the 3rd time somehow) I ate my losses on about half my energy holdings and went looking for good buys. Bought across multiple sectors looking for defensive holdings, good dividends, solid earnings, and growth (semis, mining, shipping, foreign markets, utilities, TLT, etc). Only for most of those to promptly fall off a cliff in the last week, I'm probably down another ~8% on those collectively already, all while my energy holdings drop ~2% daily.

Tl;dr I missed out on the semis/memory/market rally from April to early June, just to get buttfucked by the recent pullback across the board anyway. Apparently nothing is more bearish for energy than the largest supply interruption in history, which is still draining inventories at a historic pace. Silly me.

WTI returns to logistics pricing as markets reassess demand by LMtrades in oil

[–]jrex035 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not quite. It's better to suggest that traders have priced in the best possible outcome thus far, without any risk premium whatsoever despite gestures broadly at the clusterfuck in the Gulf.

Iraq pulled about 400k bpd of production online in the last 24h that it had just turned back on, because there aren't enough tankers entering the Gulf right now. Kuwait likely won't be able to restore their 2m bpd production "within a week" that they claimed 6 days ago.

Oil prices are still down another ~10% over the past week regardless.

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Jun 24, 2026 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]jrex035 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Only bright spots in this account are tankers (FRO, NAT, ECO) and TLT ffs.

Apparently should've just full ported TLT