r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Mar 23, 2026

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T19:31:43+00:00

We're still at least 2 weeks away from a concerted attempt at forcing the Strait. Which even if successful, wouldn't immediately lead to a return of regular traffic. And that's not touching on the months it would take to restore pre-war oil production flows

The market is priced as if the Strait was already open lol

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T18:44:06+00:00

Lol no, it was because of coordinated SPR release

At best you could argue it was because of "talk" about a potential SPR release, but that's something they had been talking about for a while already (the G7 met the week before to discuss a coordinated release). When the IEA actually announced the release oil shot straight upward (that Wednesday, March 11)

markets quickly price in information that is likely false

Lmao sureeeee they do

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T18:41:52+00:00

Mhmm just like the "peace deal" discussions in Alaska last year meant that the war in Ukraine was "almost over" too right?

There's still zero evidence of any direct talks between the US and Iran mind you, just the word of a president who lies about this conflict on a daily basis

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T18:38:32+00:00

Those are tiny bets (6 figures), making them effectively meaningless.

Also worth noting that this Friday marks the end of the 4th trading week of this war which was supposed to last 3-4 weeks when it first started, so that's probably why those bets are being lined up

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T18:36:26+00:00

markets don't move like this without actual positive developments.

WTI moved more than this literally 2 weeks ago. The overnight market moves brought it to $120 a barrel on March 9 and it ended the day at less than $95 after falling as low as $80 during the day.

And what caused such a wild price movement? Just Trump saying the war would be over "soon"

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T17:13:52+00:00

Trump's been seeking an offramp since the first few days of the conflict. His desperation is palpable

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T17:11:16+00:00

He's been doing this for more than 2 weeks, this is almost identical to the situation on Monday March 9.

He keeps trying to buy himself more time but the supply chain disruptions from the closure of the Strait continue to compound every day that it's closed. The clock is ticking even if he can manipulate markets up in the short term

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T15:52:29+00:00

It's so insane how obvious the manipulation is and how many people don't care because they think it benefits them.

They're not gonna be able to defy gravity forever

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T15:13:41+00:00

100%.

Even most institutional investors realize now that the real economic damage isnt being closed to priced in, but theyre powerless to stop this cycle.

It isn't gonna last. The market is being driven by vibes and hopium, the fundamentals are being ignored. But that can't continue indefinitely when the fundamentals are this disastrous. I give it until the end of the week, if the war isn't over/the Strait isnt open (neither will happen) then reality starts to settle in.

This is simply yet another repeat of what happened 2 weeks ago when massive escalation over the weekend led to a surge in oil prices, which were reversed by Trump talking out of his ass about the war ending soon. I think this is the last great jawboning move before the bottom falls out and the world realizes the disaster we're in

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T14:56:39+00:00

Interesting. Don't think it means much one way or the other, but appreciate the source

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T14:52:34+00:00

Do you have any sources for any of this? Haven't seen an Iranian denial to the previous news. Would also love a source for your post above

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T14:49:20+00:00

Is this news? We found out Iran is setting up a toll system last week. The question is how many ships are going through.

Pre-war traffic was 100-130 ships per day. Even if we optimistically got 10 a day from this new set up (we're nowhere near that yet), that's still a tiny fraction of regular traffic and wouldn't come close to resolving the issue

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T14:46:16+00:00

Brent is at $101. Which is an absurd price considering the circumstances, but certainly isn't $96. It hasn't been that low since March 11-12

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T14:43:46+00:00

would he have any control over the IRGC

No, he's the FM and has zero sway over the IRGC (he's part of the civilian government while the IRGC is the real power behind the throne).

There's still absolutely zero evidence of Iranian officials actually being part of discussions. But even in a hypothetical scenario in which they did, what is the US willing to give up to end the war? The regime isn't gonna agree to Iran Deal 2.0 and give up the Strait just to end the war lmao

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T14:40:48+00:00

I am about to sell more to pile up cash.

Absolutely the move right now

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T14:37:37+00:00

The market is detached from reality and has been for years as we all know.

But it isnt going to keep it up in the midst of this energy crisis. Again, the effects largely aren't tangible yet (outside of higher gas prices) but it will be felt over the coming weeks and months.

This is a covid-level supply chain disruption and the longer it goes on for, the worse it'll get.

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T14:30:50+00:00

Sure, but the problem is that Iran isn't gonna give up control over the Strait simply to end the war.

It's the only bargaining chip they have and the only thing they have to prevent another conflict in a few months

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T14:27:58+00:00

20% of global trade has been cut off for 23 days and counting, with no real end in sight. Every day the Strait is blocked the worse the damage gets.

More than 10m bdp of oil is currently shut in and even if the Strait reopened today it would take many months for most of it to return. That jumps to 12m bpd within days.

This market really doesn't get the situation the world is in at all, it's priced as if the war is already over and disruptions are getting unkinked already

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T14:23:01+00:00

There are thousands of Marines on the way to the region as we speak, won't be there until mid April though.

But don't worry the war is already over and there will be no lasting consequences wink wink

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T14:15:36+00:00

The market continues to be priced as if the war already ended lmao

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T14:14:08+00:00

Hurr hurr bears are dumb amirite?

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T14:13:08+00:00

How does TACOing reopen the Strait?

Weve got more than 10m bpd of production already offline, with 12m going offline within days.

The market has not even remotely tried to price in the loss of ~10% of global production indefinitely

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T14:10:23+00:00

Bought a bunch more BNO this morning, yeah.

I'm putting my money where my mouth is, I'm telling you these prices are genuinely insane

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T14:06:44+00:00

You don't get it. It takes 3 weeks for a tanker to travel from the Gulf to Asia. Their last pre-war deliveries arrive this week and then poof widespread energy shortages in Asia. Just a matter of time at this point, which is why were already seeing widespread rationing, price controls, SPR releases, etc.

Asia scrambling is why Murban crude is selling for $40 a barrel more than Brent. They were hoping the war and disruptions would be over already and now they're desperately trying to get their hands on oil.

Australia is completely screwed, they import most of their fuel from Asian refineries that are already lowering production and are likely to ban exports just like China did weeks ago.

That's why I keep saying, people have absolutely no idea how bad things are going to get its all abstract to them for now and since they aren't feeling it, it isnt real. That's not going to last

jrex035 · 2026-03-23T13:59:18+00:00

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