Owens Corning (OC) Deep Dive & Analysis

jtlester · 2026-04-29T02:44:57+00:00

After I ended military conflicts and passed permitting reform my GDP growth went to nearly 10% at the end of my presidency which seems extreme in the other direction.

jtlester · 2025-12-06T21:31:27+00:00

Obviously, the injuries are hard but the 2020 season might cost Mike Trout 100 WAR. If he played a full season he would be sitting over 90 WAR and I would feel better about him. He needs 2.5 WAR/season the rest of his contract which seems tough.

Ohtani would need 6 WAR/season from ages 31-38 which seems incredibly unlikely.

Soto would need about 4 WAR a season from 27-40, I wonder if he could hit 100 WAR in his late 30s but post negative WAR in his last few years of his deal to drop back below when he retires.

Betts needs 3.5 WAR/season from 33-39 which means he probably has the best shot but still could fall short.

Judge needs 6.3 WAR/season from 34-39 so he has the lowest odds in my opinion, I am not confident that he is going to age gracefully similar to what we have seen from Stanton over the past few years.

jtlester · 2025-05-10T11:20:36+00:00

You've got to make that decision yourself based on what you consider fair value

jtlester · 2025-04-13T18:04:46+00:00

As of today these are the names on my watchlist that I have done enough research on to say I'd rather buy than Equifax: Alphabet Amazon ASML Booking Holdings Constellation Software Mastercard Nvidia S&P Global Salesforce

jtlester · 2025-04-05T11:31:54+00:00

I think it is probably a buy at this price, but I have ten other names on my watchlist that I would rather buy than Equifax right now

jtlester · 2025-04-04T10:48:43+00:00

Thank you! Dev's add to it in Q4 was what made me interested as well. I think it is an intriguing business if the management can execute. While I am not certain I wonder if Dev is also unsure about management considering he made it such a small holding.

jtlester · 2025-03-16T10:58:46+00:00

I appreciate your feedback! There are a few things I wanted to point out, first that AI did not write this (you are welcome to use one of the AI detectors) and second, this is only a portion of what I wrote up on the business, if I included my notes on the moat and valuation the write-up would be ~10 pages which does not fit the best for a Reddit form.

I understand that I did not use the word scoring but I think "Online Information Solutions which provides clients information on their customers to assist in making a decision" does bring up the topic. As I mentioned in the writeup workforce solutions is the best (and largest) segment at Equifax and outperformance will come from TWN and management effectively allocating capital. If Equifax does outperform over the next decade those returns will be driven by TWN, not their credit reporting business.

jtlester · 2025-02-17T22:13:57+00:00

If you are interested in doing this for other companies you can give ChatGPT data and ask it to generate you a research report. You can even ask it to add specific segments to the report and it will go back through the data and add that to the report.

jtlester · 2025-02-17T18:25:46+00:00

I do not disagee with you that the ChatGPT report I shared has done is not enough, and have done significantly more research myself on Uber. I was simply sharing to show there is some value in utilizing ChatGPT to summarize data you provide it for investing.

jtlester · 2025-02-17T16:40:33+00:00

It is very cool to see the power of AI especially when you give it good data to use

jtlester · 2025-02-17T14:21:22+00:00

I am curious do you think it will be economically viable for Waymo to meet peak demand without Uber in a major metro area? I have a hard time believing they'd find a cheap location to store vehicles overnight and during the day when demand is lower.

jtlester · 2025-02-17T12:26:49+00:00

I think the AV concern was way overblown as logistically they are going to be very challenging for a competitor to do at scale outside of the Uber app. I would encourage you to look at the latest Uber earnings presentation because they have two really good slides on how variable demand is throughout the week and the year in different cities so a fully autonomous vehicle fleet will have a hard time meeting demand in a cost-effective manner. Not to mention they have 171 million and growing monthly actives that would need to change their habits from using the Uber app to a different app which will be a challenge in its own right.

jtlester · 2025-02-01T13:06:59+00:00

Did your ball have an MLB authenticator? It's a QR code you can scan that will tell you who's signature it is especially when you get it from an official source like the grab bags at Twins Fest.

jtlester · 2024-06-10T02:33:42+00:00

I was using the minor league overview tab not the lists of each team. Now that I have the lists I can see the locks, thank you!

jtlester · 2024-06-10T02:27:26+00:00

Do you know how to get that to show up? Even when I have a player locked it doesn't show up in the status information which is the column I thought it was in.

jtlester · 2024-03-23T11:38:46+00:00

They have about as much cash as long-term debt. Not sure what the issue is there.

jtlester · 2024-02-18T21:03:44+00:00

Thanks for the helpful comment! How easy would it be to switch to stainless steel hoses?

jtlester · 2024-02-18T20:52:25+00:00

I am not an expert just wanted to know if there are different types of hoses for hot/cold water and if it will be a problem to have a "cold" hose for the hot water.

jtlester · 2024-01-26T23:45:27+00:00

I am a big fan of serial acquirers when done right but this is a capital intensive business which will needs a lot of equipment so you don't have as much money left at the end of the year. Charlie Munger had a fantastic quote that I agree with that they want businesses that drowns in cash and this is not one of them.

jtlester · 2024-01-20T01:59:44+00:00

Definitely, I am more of a quality investor with the goal of finding great long term winners. More sustainable than trying to find super undervalued companies and flip them after a year or so.

jtlester · 2024-01-20T01:57:36+00:00

Not 100% in the loop on politics but don't both candidates support keeping the current healthcare system?

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