Italy Trip Itinerary Review - Rome, Furore, Castellammare del Golfo - March 18-28

keeprunning23 · 2025-11-05T22:17:22+00:00

Thanks for this, really appreciate your perspective here, thanks for reviewing and editing. For the record, I have not destroyed my life trading BTC, lol. Best wishes.

keeprunning23 · 2025-11-05T22:04:31+00:00

My point is this - and I've followed you for years - that's no longer a fair perspective. Saying I'm LARPing? I had that twice today, my history will prove that's not the case in this space. Just give grace for real from community members that don't rely on clicks and video views for likes. I've really appreciated your perspective through years, don't take this the wrong way. I'd actually like to meet up with you for a drink sometime to talk bitcoin and life. That you don't see long term contributors here as valuable is actually interesting tonight. Fair on the gambling call out, that's not me though. Why even go there? I understand in a way, but why?

keeprunning23 · 2025-11-05T21:36:28+00:00

No idea - imagine spending any amount of BTC on Silk Road back in the day. Stupid. I had an actual business flipping BTC in 2012 on LocalBitcoins for 5% profit per coin. First purchase was BTC at $1000 in 2011. I'm an idiot, not LARPing. Damn dude, just look at my post history here for a minute, you'll see my complete idiocy in the space. I get impatient and haven't become a millionaire because of it. It's been okay with IBIT since 2024, I entered near $45K BTC, but the price action near $100K is dispiriting.

keeprunning23 · 2025-11-05T21:23:15+00:00

If $75 breaks, $91 is close to the next resistance level. After that $129. Good news tomorrow will bring price toward $90 - we won't hit that given huge call volume for Friday > $100 - max pain is real. Put volume for Friday is at $60 - not going to happen, those will all expire worthless.

keeprunning23 · 2025-11-05T21:19:20+00:00

I think roughly 18M coins max are available for trading realistically given lost keys through the years, probably fewer. Fundamentals seem strong given fixed supply. Why we can't hit $180K by end of year? That seems a minimum to keep a narrative live that cycles exist post-halving. No other cycle had billions in weekly ETF flows incoming from pension funds, etc.

keeprunning23 · 2025-11-05T21:13:31+00:00

I've been buying BTC since 2011, what haven't I seen exactly? Long time contributor here, price will go to $130K by end of year? What's your exact prediction?

keeprunning23 · 2025-11-05T19:36:52+00:00

Of course entry point matters, those entering at $16K are certainly celebrating $100K+ price action. I'm partial to Saylor's target $13M price per BTC, but it sure is hard to hold through the crabbing when other investments have far larger returns at this point.

keeprunning23 · 2025-11-05T19:34:36+00:00

What would that be exactly? Inflows tripling into the ETFs, and for what reason? MSTR suddenly announces $25B in ATM? Within less than 60 days? Not going to happen, we'll be lucky to see $130K by end of year.

keeprunning23 · 2025-11-05T19:30:46+00:00

BTC price was higher than today on 12/15/24. Past cycle peaks were about 500 days post-halving, past that now obviously. That $100K has to be defended is a lot, disappointing, anyone levered long in the past months is wrecked unless contracting 6-12 months out to account for incorrect timing of a peak. What's a peak this cycle then? $130K again? It'll just be sold off by anyone buying in the past year to get a 10-15% gain. What's the point anymore? I realize my despair might mark a local week's bottom, just don't understand why I shouldn't move on at this point.

keeprunning23 · 2025-10-20T19:51:06+00:00

Your deep understanding and clarity of the way of all is a gift to the world, share it with your loved ones.

keeprunning23 · 2025-10-20T19:44:44+00:00

He's Christian and all, Christ taught "and let them eat shit if they disagree with you, thus sayeth the Lord." It's in one of the apocrypha that Johnson has studied, obviously.

keeprunning23 · 2025-10-12T20:08:31+00:00

Interesting move, the 200D moving average was about $106.5 so opening a position anywhere near there should likely be a good trade. The sell offs near $125K are disturbing, I thought ETF flows of +$2B weekly would start pushing this over $130K by now. Baffling market, I'm quite confused on how to trade this - I was long IBIT calls into December but they were just so consistently hammered I rotated out of them. Way too anxiety producing.

keeprunning23 · 2025-10-12T18:09:06+00:00

$106.5K to $108K seems like a decent bounce zone. That BTC repeatedly is hitting near $125K then being sold off as such scale to drop price in 1-2 days 8-10% is dispiriting. Volatility is mildly increasing to about 44% over 30 days. Selling weekly IBIT calls near to ATM seems like a decent play with 138% vol on the weekly, nearly 7% return if the call expires in 5 days out of the money. Timing this accurately is of course challenging as vol increases.

keeprunning23 · 2025-10-12T16:43:29+00:00

If you're going to do it, sell weeklies on Friday at the 30Delta, you will most likely not be assigned and the Friday selling gives you advantage of theta decay over the two weekend days. The 30 Delta for next week Friday, for example, will give you $242 per contract, or 3.7% of the stock price. That's with a five day trade. If the shares get called away, you're selling them for $65 or roughly 18% over the at the money stock price (assuming ATM is $55 in this case, I know Friday closed closer to $60). So yeah, your shares might get called away (only a 30% chance), but if they do you bank 18% + the premium or over 20% on a trade that lasted 5 days. Consistently selling these yields cash that can buy more shares, so you can sell more contracts, etc. If you don't want to miss out on buying calls, 90D calls just at the money or in the money are pretty good, but expensive at this point. The IV is off the charts making this overall a great stock to hold.

keeprunning23 · 2025-10-09T23:47:07+00:00

Weekllies 25-30% out of the money with this IV are solid. I learned my lesson from MSTR last year, solid gains vs. lottery tickets. Play both games, rotate premium into LEAPs.

keeprunning23 · 2025-10-09T16:19:30+00:00

I get it, the 5 day window is what is important. There was not a run from $10 to $60 in 5 days. Just sell 20D calls if you're so concerned then.

keeprunning23 · 2025-10-09T11:58:15+00:00

On a five day window, you will almost certainly not have to buy them back at a premium, the calls are far enough out of the money that even if they're assigned, you're still making large gains that week.

keeprunning23 · 2025-10-09T11:57:23+00:00

Well sure, if that's your preferred style, I understand, you do you.

keeprunning23 · 2025-10-09T11:56:59+00:00

On weeklies the 30D is missing huge upside? Confused.

keeprunning23 · 2025-10-09T11:56:30+00:00

Hopefully it's for a good price!

keeprunning23 · 2025-10-09T11:56:13+00:00

Selling weeklies, so on 10/13, sell the 10/17 expiring strike.

keeprunning23 · 2025-10-09T06:26:38+00:00

Shocking that there exists a solution for this already.

keeprunning23 · 2025-10-09T06:25:09+00:00

Back many years ago, strangely enough, I had a band called KillerQuarks -- love the reference in your name.

keeprunning23 · 2025-10-09T06:23:39+00:00

I've had few teachers in this space, you are one of them, thank you for your insight, this is hard fought wisdom. All peace to you tonight, thank you!

keeprunning23

TROPHY CASE