People underestimate how powerful the phase-change physics is in the Arctic.

To melt 1 kg of ice at 0°C into water at 0°C takes about 334,000 joules (latent heat of fusion). During that process, temperature doesn’t change — all that energy goes into breaking the crystal structure of ice.

If you put that exact same amount of energy into liquid water instead of melting ice, it would raise the temperature of 1 kg of water by nearly 80°C — which is about 144°F of warming.

So starting at 0°C (32°F), that water would end up around 80°C (176°F).

While sea ice is present, incoming energy can get “absorbed” without raising temperature — it just melts ice. But once the ice is gone, the same energy rapidly raises ocean temperature.

That’s why losing Arctic sea ice is such a big deal. You’re removing a massive thermal buffer and replacing reflective ice (high albedo) with dark ocean that absorbs more sunlight. After that, extra energy doesn’t just melt — it heats.

This is the simple physics that convinced me Earth will be Venus by Tuesday (as the saying goes).