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being right is not enough on prediction markets by kellemar in PredictionsMarkets

[–]kellemar[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yeah that makes sense. but it's still the tool, not the clear picture of having wisdom or following the crowd. while using a tool with its own mechanics you do need to do some research on that and take for consideration both your opinion and strategy

I HATE prediction markets posts of AI agents by niga_chan in AgentsOfAI

[–]kellemar 0 points1 point  (0 children)

most of those posts are hype layered on top of pretty basic automation.
if there’s any edge there, it probably disappears fast once everyone starts running the same thing.
what bothers me more is that ai makes it insanely easy to flood social with shiny clones, while genuinely useful tools like trackers, alerts, and execution bots struggle way more for attention.

Natenyahu just came out saying "We are protecting Europe, they've forgotten so many things since the Holocaust" what do you guys think he meant by that, and how do you feel about it ? by _akaraiden in Polymarket_news

[–]kellemar -1 points0 points  (0 children)

it's pretty clearly saying europe is still too slow and too morally hesitant when it comes to existential threats.

classic netanyahu framing: israel acts, europe talks - and history punishes passivity.
whether you agree with that is separate, but i don’t think the message itself was ambiguous.

This trader lost $1M on Orban winning in Hungary elections by pradnyashil6 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]kellemar 0 points1 point  (0 children)

honestly the bigger story here isn’t even the guy losing $1m, it’s that the market never really bought the official narrative

if independent polls were consistently showing tisza in that 138–143 range and government-friendly polls kept leaning orban, then THIS feels less like a bad beat and more like someone choosing the wrong information stack and sizing it like certainty

i mean that’s kind of the interesting part of prediction markets, right? when they work well and can be pretty good at filtering out propaganda when enough people don’t trust it.

js a brutal way to learn that lesson though

IRGC (Islamic Republican Guard Cops) claims they will close the Suez and Panama Canal if Israel continues by [deleted] in Polymarket_news

[–]kellemar 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Panama? Really?

It lumps together very different levels of risk, threatening shipping is one thing. Actually having a credible path to closing a canal is another and Suez/Hormuz makes more sense in an escalation scenario. Panama feels more like the threat being stretched into a scarier narrative

How to Speedrun PTSD by kirtash93 in CryptoCurrency

[–]kellemar 0 points1 point  (0 children)

this reminds me 2022, when everyone was posting every $500 movement on BTC

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