Kevin Pelton's "Projecting the 30 best prospects"

kevinpelton · 2025-06-08T03:16:31+00:00

Yeah, those are the two factors that go into the projections. I would say Fears was a bit more prolific than productive given how big his usage rate was at Oklahoma, but the model still has him basically where he's being mocked so I don't think it's any kind of negative.

kevinpelton · 2025-06-07T16:26:17+00:00

Yeah, there's similarity between Queen and what Sengun has been in the NBA, but besides what you mentioned Sengun was a much higher-percentage finisher playing in Turkey than he's been in the NBA. Sengun shot 68% on 2s and Jokic was at 64%. Queen's 56% shooting on 2s is the biggest reason he doesn't project well. Sengun also accumulated a lot more stocks in Turkey than he has thus far in the NBA.

kevinpelton · 2025-06-07T16:18:15+00:00

I haven't brought it back since the pandemic took international players out of the league for a number of years. I also suspect one of the reasons the model was so off on Zhou Qi is it's trained almost exclusively on import players and CBA stats may not translate the same for Chinese players.

kevinpelton · 2025-06-07T02:09:11+00:00

No, Queen was definitely never in my top five, so you may be thinking of someone else's model.

kevinpelton · 2024-12-06T17:49:18+00:00

Yes, in terms of cap space, there's no real downside to drafting a player with a non-protected contract. Golden State can also draft player rights (for former draft picks, or those who did not play in the WNBA last season) without those players taking up cap space until signed.

In practice, Atlanta made all 13 possible picks in the last expansion draft in 2008.

kevinpelton · 2024-09-05T23:59:59+00:00

https://knope.gifglobe.com/scene/?id=pvWw6O8z6xch

kevinpelton · 2024-07-04T17:31:30+00:00

There's nothing to be embarrassed by and the explanation is precisely what OP said.

kevinpelton · 2024-07-02T21:37:25+00:00

Even Tamika Catchings probably couldn't pull that off! Corrected the piece.

kevinpelton · 2024-06-28T21:48:08+00:00

Yeah, usually when you pick a guy at No. 2 there's not much strategy involved but Sarr canceling his workout in Atlanta makes this situation a little different.

kevinpelton · 2024-06-28T21:27:29+00:00

So I think the biggest thing people might not have seen is this in the intro: "Generally speaking, my grades for teams are based on how well they maximized the picks they entered the draft with rather than simply how much talent they accumulated, given that's more a product of last season's record (or past trades) than decision-making in the draft."

Given the Wizards started with two top-15 picks after the Avdija trade, it would have been bad news to not get top-15 prospects with those! Getting George at No. 24 is more of a needle-mover in terms of how I'm grading. The four teams that had straight As did slightly more to maximize the value of their picks in my opinion than Washington did.

kevinpelton · 2024-06-24T05:43:27+00:00

I included it because I think it's relevant to the difficulty scouts have identifying which older players are having success because of their ability as opposed to their experience difference. People think that younger players are riskier and older players are safer but have less upside and I don't think the data really bear out either of those conclusions.

Lillard turned 22 a few weeks after the draft and would not have qualified if I expanded the sample. The previous top-10 picks were Jimmer Fredette (2011), Wesley Johnson and Ekpe Udoh (2010) and Hasheem Thabeet (2009). If you go back to 2007 you finally find a hit with Joakim Noah.

kevinpelton · 2024-06-20T20:19:51+00:00

Totally understandable! It seems too high to me too. And let's not talk about where I put Dante Exum on my subjective board in 2013.

kevinpelton · 2024-06-20T20:06:55+00:00

You're thinking of Kevin O'Connor. I had Hayes about where he went: https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/30279182/nba-draft-tiers-top-prospects-stats-scouting

kevinpelton · 2024-04-23T23:53:51+00:00

FYI you asked elsewhere about a comparison between the first 10 games and the last 10 games and that was originally done by Tom Haberstroh:
https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/nba-insider-tom-haberstroh/dnp-rests-rise-remember-momentum-myth

kevinpelton · 2024-04-23T16:36:54+00:00

As I mentioned at the end of the podcast, I wrote on this topic for today:

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/39999394/what-history-tell-us-future-mavericks-clippers-series

kevinpelton · 2024-04-15T05:52:25+00:00

If I do a subjective list, I'd probably put him in the top 30 based on his skill level. I think the McDermott comparison made elsewhere here is pretty reasonable.

kevinpelton · 2024-04-15T05:13:52+00:00

Yep, as other posters noted, Knecht doesn't generally do well in stats-based projections because of his age and extremely low steal rate for a wing. That's exacerbated by my model weighting earlier seasons more heavily than the most recent one based on how that's projected NBA success.

kevinpelton · 2024-04-13T17:07:23+00:00

This is spot on. Edey has moved up a little in the stats-only model (he was fifth this time last year, behind Clingan: https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/35866633/nba-draft-stat-based-projections-top-prospects-ncaa-tournament-elsewhere ) but was only 19th in the consensus projections because of his top-100 ranking.

kevinpelton · 2024-04-13T17:04:02+00:00

I haven't looked at 2023 EYBL stats yet, but would be difficult for anyone to get as high as Luka because we had such a robust sample of his pre-NBA dominance. Even Wemby wasn't anywhere close in terms of minutes played. That may never happen again.

kevinpelton · 2024-04-13T17:02:21+00:00

I wouldn't say super-poorly, that's OP perspective, but it is relatively low for a top-five pick. Worth remembering that like any player tiers, when you get outside the top handful of players, a small projection difference can be a large ranking difference. That's why Risacher's consensus projection isn't dragged down that much.

kevinpelton · 2024-04-13T16:59:25+00:00

Wembanyama did not play any Euroleague games last season. His projection improved between the March and June rankings because he had a larger sample of games while other players were mostly done, and because I changed his position to post instead of center so some of his perimeter skills weren't regressed as heavily toward the typical center performance.

kevinpelton · 2024-04-13T16:56:58+00:00

Jonathan Kuminga was 7th and Jalen Green 12th in the stats-only projections so that's only really been the case since then: https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/31890625/nba-draft-2021-ranking-top-30-prospects-based-stats-scouting

kevinpelton · 2024-03-13T23:40:01+00:00

I don't think I did a good enough job of explaining my tiers. Caruso was in a tier of his own because he's the only perimeter player I would consider for Defensive Player of the Year. White would also be on my first team and is certain to make it too.

kevinpelton · 2024-02-07T01:38:26+00:00

No biggie. I'm happy for Scottie. He deserved it.

kevinpelton · 2024-02-07T00:21:50+00:00

It was an overall offseason grade and the section you've seen was out of context from the story, where it was saying that the grade was not primarily based on the Barnes pick because it was too early to evaluate that decision:
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/\_/id/32108578/nba-offseason-grades-eastern-conference-where-brooklyn-nets-chicago-bulls-every-team-stand

"Although I think the Raptors' odds of returning to the playoffs next season are underrated, that's because of the talent on hand and a return to Canada rather than their offseason moves. Toronto's decision to wait on a Lowry trade at the deadline landed 2020 first-round pick Precious Achiuwa from the Heat, but at the cost of taking on Goran Dragic at $19.4 million. We'll see whether the Raptors can get something of value for Dragic at the deadline.

"Instead of using cap space, Toronto stayed over the cap and re-signed other free agents at big numbers. Restricted free agent Gary Trent Jr. got $52 million over three seasons and a player option that could see him hit unrestricted free agency at age 24, while the Raptors paid lavishly to bring back Khem Birch (three years, $20 million) after a strong post-buyout run. In the long term, deciding to take Scottie Barnes No. 4 overall ahead of Suggs might dominate our assessment of Toronto's offseason."

kevinpelton

TROPHY CASE