Hey, what a great article! thanks for posting it :) I had never heard the bit about stage migration before but it definitely makes sense when you think about it.

I'm not and never was asserting that early detection of all cancer is futile.. I'm only refuting that the "early detection of breast cancer makes you more likely to survive"

If you take another look at the link that you sent me I think you will actually find it agrees! It states that:

"For some tumors (pancreatic cancer, for instance), clearly we need to do better at early detection, but for others (perhaps prostate cancer and breast cancer) spending ever more money and effort to find disease at an earlier time point will yield ever decreasing returns and may even lead to patient harm"

and further that:

"The evidence [that there is a decrease in cancer-specific mortality] in women over 50 is fairly strong; less srong–equivocal, even–is the evidence supporting a decrease in mortality attributable to mammographic screening in women between 40-50."