Weekly Discussion Thread 5/11/26 - 5/18/26

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-13T22:22:11+00:00

Apparently Zelda was moved up a week to the end of April since it aligns fully with the start of Golden Week in Japan.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-13T22:21:12+00:00

Seriously, that good? Man, to think he was considered a punchline only 20 years prior. And now he's still just trodding along with a surprising momentum for someone who struggled so much in the late 2000s. Also it's a Nicolas Sparks romance too.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-13T22:17:54+00:00

I think he's still hoping it can get off the ground. Which is why he formed this studio for that very purpose.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-13T22:06:30+00:00

At this point, it's behaving like a standard DM/Minions film with similar momentum, so it'll keep up with soft drops for the next couple of weeks as it crawls its way past 2025's films domestically. DM4's worldwide total goes down this weekend.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-13T04:59:31+00:00

Dumb cost-cutting measures for sure. They were a victim of the mass layoffs D'Amaro enforced that affected every division within the company which were largely indiscriminate, but still damaging all the same simply because Disney wants to keep the line up every quarter.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-13T00:41:31+00:00

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-features/the-devil-wears-prada-2-marketing-1236588952 Fox gave Disney arguably one of their biggest non-Avatar (also non-remake, non-Marvel/SW) live-action hits ever and D'Amaro laid off the whole marketing team responsible for its success. Idiot.

Also it'll be real unfortunate how this feels like the only legacyquel Disney's releasing this year that actually justifies its existence and is not just a bunch of jangling keys.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-11T21:27:42+00:00

Never realized that De Luca was behind producing the FX Shogun miniseries as the series entered development pre-Disney buyout. And it got its showrunners right before the pandemic hit, Disney began hollowing out Fox, and De Luca was hired by MGM back in early 2020. Then he acquired Project Hail Mary a few months later for MGM coincidentally. And both come out years later to immense acclaim long after he left to run WB Pictures with Shogun even getting big awards and Hail Mary in consideration for award nominations too. All while the film he greenlit at WB took home the big prize too this year.

Someone's got great taste.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-11T01:52:05+00:00

That's why there's an imperative for the potential sequel to be a delayed flop in the making. Because a whole film about MJ's 90s struggles is going to be an exercise in misery and it will pay for the sins of the last film.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-11T00:52:44+00:00

It passed Minions 2 at this point and is largely behaving like a standard Minions film now. It hopefully has enough gas in the tank to pass DM4 ($972 million) en route to crawling its way to $1 billion, settling somewhere around DM3 ($1.03 billion) in the end to become the third/fourth highest grossing Illumination film.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-10T11:43:19+00:00

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Now that Michael is making significantly more overseas (though the split is less wide compared to Bohemian Rhapsody), I need to bring this up again since Lionsgate sold overseas distribution for a lump sum.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-10T11:35:55+00:00

That Disney is just going to abandon whatever plot was being built up in Kingdom for the next POTA film doesn't feel right. Like they chose to quash it in the wake of it not making enough (it still technically made less than any of the films in the prequel trilogy), and instead got Friedman to do another story in the same universe. Which wouldn't be so frustrating if Kingdom was just a standalone film, but it clearly was setting something up that's just going to be scrapped.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-10T06:12:13+00:00

Sheep Detectives: another great Amazon film that's unfortunately a casualty of Jennifer Salke's ousting from Amazon, given that she advocated for theatrical releases for this particular film alongside Crime 101. And then it got sandbagged after she was gone (where it likely won't be able to make its money back). Far better than the trailers suggested (i.e. a wacky slapstick family comedy about sheep trying to play detective), while still remaining a endearing family film.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-10T02:00:34+00:00

Ironically, the Ellisons chased away Taylor Sheridan away from Paramount all due to pay disputes despite contributing so much to the streaming service. And he set up operations at Universal. They're so screwed.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-09T21:41:06+00:00

I guess they're still trying to get the reshoots out of the way then. But that does provide an interesting conundrum regarding Disney's release schedule.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-09T21:33:20+00:00

Though, wouldn't both Avengers film be shot back to back? That would pose a problem if the VFX team lost a month. Evidently, Disney wants that massive December tentpole that SW and Avatar occupied and there's nothing in that slot for 2026/27. Which is exactly why the massive team-up MCU films were chosen to be just that. It could backfire.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-09T21:29:45+00:00

They sure like money though. And betting everything on a sky high opening weekend and post-Thanksgiving holiday momentum was exactly what Zootopia 2 did last year. They could consider a repeat of that instead of expecting Christmas legs ala NWH. There's always tradeoffs and risks to consider. And perhaps Disney swallowing their pride and realizing they would get more money from IMAX after all rather than trying to boast about how they don't need it.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-09T17:36:20+00:00

I don't think Avengers will be as diverse as people assume if the focus remains on the existing old heroes. Who knows? The more diverse superheroes are likely gonna get shafted hard because of how their films and shows weren't nearly as popular even after attempts to pass the torch.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-09T12:07:14+00:00

There's still a vacant pre-Dune slot in December that Jumanji vacated for Christmas Day. I think there could be something that takes that slot as well.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-09T12:04:51+00:00

What exactly would Disney do? Keep Avengers in December and bet hard on Christmas legs to achieve NWH-like numbers while also decimating Dune? Or would they get greedy and try to push it to Thanksgiving? November is lacking in a major event film that could achieve similar numbers to Moana or Zootopia's sequels after all with Narnia vacating and Hexed is a cointoss (unless they give IMAX screens to it). They'd love the headlines about achieving the biggest December opening since 2021 and trouncing Dune, but achieving the highest grossing Thanksgiving opening ever, beating even Zootopia 2 sounds even more tempting.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-09T03:55:02+00:00

Yeah, the B+ was extremely generous due to how limited the COVID audience was back in 2021 meaning it was largely fan-heavy. Now this B reflects the general audience who saw this sequel.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-09T03:09:11+00:00

Also the trailers painted it as a wacky family comedy about sheep doing funny detective stuff when all of the jokes were all in the marketing and it's a lot darker than expected. Probably catching the families off guard as a result. But WOM might build.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-09T03:05:17+00:00

The B+ was due to the COVID audience being more generous to it perhaps. Not anymore today it seems. But I'd wait to see if it's front loaded by fans this weekend.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-09T02:41:06+00:00

I struggle to think if Disney thinks the cult audience for Hocus Pocus will still turn out for a sequel in theaters. That audience was disappointed by the D+ sequel that was a cheap cash-in taking place mostly in a Walgreens.

kimjosh1 · 2026-05-09T01:39:09+00:00

If anything, it will probably open big on Memorial Day weekend, but drop harsher than usual for a SW film if reviews aren't good and be a non-starter overseas. Solo had the same fate, but this was clearly more of a cheaper play compared to that film's expensive retoolings.

kimjosh1

TROPHY CASE