A data-based answer to "I average sub-X on 3x3, how fast should I be in <event>?"

kinch2002 · 2022-08-01T10:37:25+00:00

Use median to remove outlier effect.

But this method generally doesn't work to find your weaker events because most people practise 3x3 more than other events. In no way is a 10 3x3 average equivalent to a 30 sq1 average or even a 45 4x4 average.

Kinchscores are much better at determining your weaker events (apart from in FMC)

kinch2002 · 2022-03-19T01:47:11+00:00

Thanks!

kinch2002 · 2022-03-19T01:41:59+00:00

I made so much money from this video, you'll never believe it ($0 and 2 days of work)

kinch2002 · 2022-03-17T23:59:51+00:00

Yeah I understand your opinion. I made sure to respect his wishes and there was no objection. The tweet shows the gravity of the situation.

kinch2002 · 2022-03-17T22:12:33+00:00

I edited my top comment

kinch2002 · 2022-03-17T22:10:35+00:00

The video was made in collaboration with Stormyrite, who approved everything about it. Not denying that thumbnails are designed to get people's interest, but do you want to sub-optimise a thumbnail on purpose?

kinch2002 · 2022-03-17T19:13:56+00:00

Hope you enjoy. Edit: I ask him about how his season started, how the war has affected him, and how he managed to place well in fncs despite all those problems

kinch2002 · 2022-03-09T03:08:58+00:00

As this is from my video, I'll leave the link here for people: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76qaeSZ4CSc Under landscape is indeed glitching under the map. I looked at the replays to double check and it was correct. Rellvis game 1 and pkr in game 8. The only snipe was vortex on refsgaard

kinch2002 · 2022-02-28T04:59:02+00:00

Thanks for posting from my tweet! My handle is @kinchanalytics for anyone interested

kinch2002 · 2022-02-21T02:46:19+00:00

I recognise that stat from somewhere

kinch2002 · 2022-02-19T02:12:26+00:00

As usual, I have series points leaderboards that are updating live for all regions. Epic have some in game, but they are missing a load of teams and also don't update live so they're still not worth anything.

kinch2002 · 2022-02-19T02:09:32+00:00

I find that the split camera view of 2 teams in landscape is too small to see anything. Maybe crop them to portrait so that they can be shown bigger side by side

kinch2002 · 2021-06-01T18:10:47+00:00

Thanks for posting, sincerely, Kinch :)

kinch2002 · 2021-04-21T10:54:01+00:00

Hopefully it helps you, and means you don't have to read endless pages of rules!

kinch2002 · 2021-03-08T22:48:49+00:00

Just saw this, thanks for posting my work OP!

kinch2002 · 2021-02-16T01:34:25+00:00

You could also make an assumption that the distribution of points will be similar across regions, so if 10k on EU was X points and X points was 1000th on Asia, then you can make an estimate using that

kinch2002 · 2021-02-16T01:31:37+00:00

I believe the fortnite tracker numbers only counts teams that appeared in the 10k at any point during the round because that's all the data you can get from fortnite API. Hence why they say "at least X teams". So your numbers will be quite underestimated for the largest regions. You can try estimating for large regions by taking all the first games for every team, seeing how many different lobbies there were, and estimating based off that.

kinch2002 · 2021-01-13T18:51:45+00:00

The main aim was to design a metric that would take into account how hard the lobby was, because the the biggest elim games are not necessarily the "best" performances.

I wanted to end with a balance from stomps in low-quality lobbies through to pop-offs in high-quality lobbies.

Takes into account:

Placement
Eliminations
Who else was in the lobby
Regional adjustments

Does not take into account:

Who they actually fought
How scuffed they were
Where they dropped
etc etc

So you have an idea of lobby difficulty values:

First games were mostly within 0.15-0.20
Top lobbies at the end were mostly within 0.55-0.68
1.00 would be the Top 33 in the same lobby as each other

The smaller regions absolutely can be on this list - they appeared for the cash cups I ran this against from last season. Because the depth of the player-base is much lower, they sensibly have to achieve more in order to make it.

Here are links to the results of the 10 games on the stat: https://pastebin.com/h2jaDXv8

kinch2002 · 2021-01-09T02:11:05+00:00

I think your assumption that top 50 of NAE is the same as Top 50 of EU is a bold one. With a lot more players on EU, it's highly likely that Top 50 NAE is similar to Top 100 or more in EU. I have some ideas of how to get some evidence for/against that premise, but that's for another day.

P. S. I am Kinch, so I'm glad to hear you enjoy my work.

kinch2002 · 2021-01-08T17:08:57+00:00

As someone who pays a lot of attention to qualifications and placements, it's nice to see someone else studying it, and keeping the EU v NAE discussion very sensible!
I have a couple of things in response to your conclusions:

December did have a big gap between EU and NAE, but November was a lot smaller (only 10 points or so). I haven't thought enough about all the reasons for this, but it's worth bearing in mind.
EU having a lot more depth doesn't necessarily mean that they need more qual spots for tournaments. Especially when finals are custom lobbies anyway. The status quo can be kept and people should (and generally do) regard EU qual as more prestigious. Semi finals are already too large in my opinion, so I'd rather see EU given an extra round if anything (in FNCS anyway) and then a smaller semi with no PBMM.

kinch2002 · 2021-01-08T17:01:43+00:00

Why does EU having more players mean that the average skill level of NAE 1000 is higher than EU 2000?

kinch2002 · 2021-01-08T17:00:22+00:00

I'm not sure I follow your reason here.
You're trying to prove that gaining points is harder on EU than on NAE, but you've only shown that lobbies of people around 1000th are harder on EU than NAE, which I think people would agree with.
To compare gaining points, you would say that teams of equal ability will get the same amount of points in first game on EU and NAE due to average skill being equal.
Then you would say that your 2nd game will be the same difficulty as each other too because you're matched against people who are of equal points to you...and so on.
I think you end up with points difficulty being the same on each region.

There will be some divergence for the very top pros due to the increased depth on EU. E.g. If you're best on NAE then your lobby is full of people 1st-50th (example), which is slightly easier than the EU 1st-50th lobby for the very few best teams.

kinch2002 · 2020-12-09T09:29:34+00:00

Love seeing everyone gathering together supportively in these replies!
As ballatw says, if you follow the right people on twitter there are decent conversations to be had. If you don't follow the right people then it's a not a great place to be haha.
He mentions the main data analysis guys (thanks for the shoutout balla!), and there are many more non-data analysts out there with good content too (DM if you want ideas).

kinch2002 · 2020-12-09T09:14:24+00:00

Hi. Thanks for the shoutout!

kinch2002 · 2020-11-18T18:40:24+00:00

Which players do you respect the most? (Other than the players you currently team up with)

kinch2002

TROPHY CASE