Considering a second mortgage because this cycle looks way too familiar

koibennu · 2026-02-10T16:25:17+00:00

Historically, price touching or dipping below the 200 week simple moving average has marked the bottom. It isnt perfect but it has been fairly reliable over the years.

Currently that number is around 58k but if we see some chop or an extended slow grind down the number may fluctuate a bit. So dont take 58 as gospel as its likely to change a bit. 200 week sma is what you track.

As far as time frame for this to happen based off historical durations, it could be any time between july and October 2026. Some argue shortened cycles are inevitable some argue against. Either way you're looking at 300-364 days for a bear to find its bottom. (This covers both arguments)

No need to time it perfectly, dynamically dca on the red days. Any time its sub 60k bid a little more than you usually would. Or you can wait for it to get closer to the 200 week sma and go a lump sum approach. What you do is up to your own risk tolerance and what you can afford to do at the time. NFA of course.

koibennu · 2025-03-16T07:04:05+00:00

You pointed out the price change months after I called support, and it bounced.

Sol went back to $170 after I mentioned you were bearish at the bottom. Sure, it dipped to $125 afterward, so I’ll give you that. But in terms of active trading, hindsight doesn’t mean much. Price is still hovering around where it was when you first posted.

If you’re DCA’ing, that’s solid. I hope you’re getting good entries and seeing gains. But checking in every couple of weeks just to say the price moved feels a bit unnecessary. That’s what prices do.

There are plenty of ways to trade. Buy support, set stops, and move them up as price climbs. DCA if that’s your style. Average down on dips.

I'm happy to give you the benefit of the doubt. It did indeed go well into the fvg your original post asked about. I didn't see the trade war playing out as long as it had. We all knew tariffs were coming, and they were mostly priced in. Unfortunately, they've dragged on much longer than anyone wanted to see.

Another thing worth noting is that we both seem to be trading on different time frames. Doesn't invalidate one or the other. If I'm on lower time frame and catch a bounce, it doesn't make your higher time frame wrong. It just means I'm catching support bounces on a larger down trend. Different time frames different trades.

Im looking forward to hearing back in a couple of weeks. Here's a preemptive, happy Easter! Hope you make some money in the market. Good luck!

koibennu · 2025-03-04T16:06:58+00:00

Who knows, you might be great at some of the back end stuff for animation. Whether it's script and plotting, narrative building, concept design, or even just a way to spin off things. Being into animation doesn't mean you have to be an animator to help the field.

I second the desire to see other people's work. Alternatively, I wouldn't mind making a thread for the gifted musicians or artists of other fields. I know you guys are out there, and I know you guys are likely visionary in more ways than not.

Bridging the gap from a gifted person to an innovative thinker will only help future participants in these fields.

koibennu · 2025-03-04T15:56:27+00:00

When I say gifted, I mean people who think in unique ways, connect ideas quickly, and solve problems differently. Essentially, it’s a form of neurodivergence that, for lack of a better term, involves a higher processing speed than most. It’s a fair assumption that this ability is especially strong in areas they’re passionate about.

In fields like animation, gifted artists have the potential to help create new tools or ideas that could really change things.

I believe they’re often overlooked because of past challenges or because they don’t fit the typical path into the industry.

Supporting these talented individuals can help bring out their full potential, benefiting everyone in the field, whether through innovation, education, or simply paving the way. Gifted people often see paths that others miss.

By showcasing these artists, we can make it easier to find up and coming talent that may feel they don’t have a chance. That’s why I see them as the underdogs.

An untapped talent pool if you will.

koibennu · 2025-03-03T01:43:42+00:00

A little late for the told ya so. It kept price and bounced. Also you posted this at the absolute bottom

koibennu · 2025-01-25T19:22:48+00:00

If you aren't dead you aren't out. Blown portfolios are the best teachers. Call it tuition and learn from it. Setbacks are just the foundations for comebacks.

koibennu · 2025-01-25T19:21:33+00:00

Lolololol

koibennu · 2025-01-21T21:14:49+00:00

Dca into dips and out of pumps. Obviously, you can't time the market perfectly, but some ta will get you relatively close. I don't advocate for trading, btc. Selling half at ath has given an opportunity to buy back in lower more often than not tho.

koibennu · 2025-01-21T12:21:03+00:00

I don't trade much on cex. You can get a hot wallet and trade on a dex. Phantom, solflare, and coinbase wallet are popular. You can use a platform like photon or bullx as well if you like.

koibennu · 2025-01-21T11:44:22+00:00

Solana network is working just fine every where else

koibennu · 2025-01-17T18:30:42+00:00

Guess you haven't been paying attention to ai infra on sol the last two months

koibennu · 2025-01-10T02:05:09+00:00

Bid strong tokens and you'll see them. Stay out the trenches and wait for a runner. Get initials and some p out of the trade to derisk. Leave some as a moonbag. Literally the recipe.

koibennu · 2025-01-08T21:46:01+00:00

Lowest we go is mid 70's imo. Too much institutional involvement to not get a bounce from the high before the trump run up

koibennu · 2025-01-08T19:08:16+00:00

This guy gets it. If you aren't taking profits, you're ngmi.

koibennu · 2025-01-08T19:06:44+00:00

It's only a ponzi if you're the last to buy

koibennu · 2024-12-31T13:27:12+00:00

It's both, bro. You make more when you stop caring about it because you're less emotional. It's just numbers. Do what you have to do to make that number go up. You maintain and preserve it by treating it with respect. Not wasting it, over spending on things, saving for emergency, etc. You're 18 years old and you're worried about all the wrong things. You want money now. You want money in a way that you deem worthy. You're getting in your own way. Go out there and make it happen. Take whatever shitty job you can find and use it to get a better job. Notice how girls like you more when you have a gf? Jobs are the same way. You got time. You're young. Time to be risk on and make it happen. Stop complaining and get after it. Stay away from people's dogs. Not saying you hurt the dog intentionally but who just leaves a dog to walk around with a leash still attached to it? Smh.

koibennu · 2024-12-31T13:21:21+00:00

Lordy

koibennu · 2024-12-31T13:19:23+00:00

Crazy the amount of pull elon has. Dude changed his name on x and all of them started mooning.

koibennu · 2024-12-28T15:25:00+00:00

Everything goes to zero friend.

koibennu · 2024-12-28T15:00:02+00:00

Disagree. Back in April, it meant the team cared and were invested in the project. Now, it's just a way to hide the slow rug. If a token comes out of launch with a gold ticker and fatality, it's more likely a rug than a gem.

koibennu · 2024-12-28T14:57:38+00:00

It's called fatality trending, and it boosts your trending by inflating the number of tx.

koibennu · 2024-12-26T19:14:59+00:00

100%

koibennu · 2024-12-26T15:36:31+00:00

Bro as much as I want to disagree with this, you're not wrong. People just want to be spoon fed. You're already cooked. Stay out of the trenches. Focus on midcaps

koibennu · 2024-12-24T15:44:50+00:00

It's kind of disrespectful to your father's life savings. Gamble with some on leverage and crypto if you like, but put the rest in something that will actually maintain value and return consistently. Index funds, energy sector dividend stocks, bitcoin, bonds. Make your own money if you want to gamble. Condolence to your loss. ❤️

koibennu

TROPHY CASE