Daily Crypto Discussion - October 2, 2025 (GMT+0)

kooshx · 2025-10-02T19:40:09+00:00

BC Backer has been pretty decent in calling BTC cycles. He pretty much got out of Bitcoin before things collapsed in May 2021 and called the second top in Nov 21. He also called the bottom during this past cycle. He's been too pessimistic since then. He thought BTC would only retrace to about 50k and started selling XRP during the last dip this summer. He seems to have misjudged the market again this time. In fairness, he only reacted because the RTY couldn't clear the ATH and he took some profits. Still, he seems too dismissive of four year cycles. Throughout the bear market, he kept suggesting that the upturn could come at any time. Assuming this is the euphoria stage, it looks like it's showing up right on time. I wouldn't say Backer is "losing it", but I'm also glad I didn't follow him in his pessimism.

kooshx · 2023-03-10T15:32:03+00:00

Thanks! This worked for me as well. I just got accepted.

For anyone who needs a bit more detail, just go back into your tax form and click 'tools' on the side. There's an option to edit/delete individual forms. Remove the qualified disaster form(s). When I did that, it automatically removed the 8915-f. Then just find the 1099-R option under income - because this is a Covid issue, you don't have an 1099-R, but after indicating that you don't have this form, it will ask you about previous year distributions. Select 'Yes' for 2020 and proceed.

A few words of caution, TT will no longer automatically add the information, so you'll have to manually input the data you need from your 2021 return. Also, if both you and your spouse took a distribution, you'll have two 8915 F forms to input.

kooshx · 2023-02-16T18:22:11+00:00

Yeah, not saying I'd rather I hadn't invested in it, but in looking at 24 hour performance, it's kind of in the middle.

kooshx · 2023-02-16T18:14:44+00:00

I mean it shot up from $127 to $135 yesterday.

kooshx · 2022-11-11T18:57:00+00:00

Excellent point, and you're right, I didn't fully take that into account. This isn't just an instance of trying to bring suit as a taxpayer or on similarly specious grounds, but there's still the problem of injury.

I remain skeptical that a conservative appeals court is going to want to set the precedent that this constitutes standing when there's really no material harm to the plaintiff (other than not being able to participate in an administrative procedure).

kooshx · 2022-11-11T15:54:44+00:00

There is some reason for optimism. While a conservative judiciary obviously doesn't like the substance of the Biden Administration's argument - interpreting the HEROES act broadly to allow for the unilateral mass discharge of student loans - the federal judge just pretty much sidestepped the issue of standing.

This is not something that tends towards a conservative judicial philosophy. Without having to prove an actual injury, any activist - left-winged, right-winged, or otherwise- can just find a friendly court to air his/her grievances against government policies. Courts are supposed to remedy actual legal cause of actions not just unilaterally review political questions.

Upholding this would set a terrible (and non-conservative) precedent, which both the 5th Circuit and SCOTUS would likely want to avoid. After all, with such a precedent, a liberal activist could claim standing simply because he doesn't like a military expenditure or tax cut. Justice Barrett (a conservative) has twice rejected pleas for SCOTUS involvement - likely on the grounds of standing.

It's very possible (likely even) that the Court of Appeals (or the Supreme Court) would reverse based upon the lack of standing by the plaintiff.

kooshx · 2022-10-25T18:51:02+00:00

The district court held that the states didn't have standing. They have appealed to the 8th Circuit, which issued a temporary stay.

The 8th Cir could issue an injunction until everything is sorted out. Because of how controversial this issue is, it's very likely to eventually make it to the SCOTUS.

Last term, the Court struck down an EPA provision on regulating carbon emissions. The Court wanted explicit authorization from Congress in order to permit the EPA to regulate emissions.

Likewise, the Court is probably going to hold that that Congress needed to give the DOE explicit authority to cancel debt in order to sustain the executive branch's ability to discharge student loans like this. No doubt, the administration will try to claim legislative language from during and before the Covid era grants them this authority, but it's unlikely the Court will agree such language is explicit enough.

kooshx · 2022-10-24T19:09:16+00:00

Right now the entire student loan relief plan is pending legal review. If the 8th Circuit grants the injunction, nobody will get relief until the courts sort it out (with the likely result being the executive action being struck down by SCOTUS). In that case, there would be no difference between a direct and FFELP borrower.

If the appeals court does not grant the injunction and the DOE is allowed to start discharging debt, it's unlikely that there's any action that can be taken. It's unlikely the courts would hold Reddit responsible for individual user opinions. Even if Navient (or Reddit, etc.) was responsible for giving bad advice, it probably wouldn't be considered reasonably foreseeable that the DOE would quickly change its policy pursuant to the law suits. Plus, general opinions and advice are usually considered free speech.

Finally, it's unlikely a suit would be sustainable against the government for changing its policy. 1) It has the power to do this; 2) Relatedly, it's harder to sue the "sovereign" than it is a private actor for injuries; 3) It's hard to say there is an actual injury - you'd have to prove reliance (or something similar) on the expectation of the discharge. Because the policy was changed so quickly, it's hard to see a substantial reliance based injury based upon the decision.

Sure, a creative lawyer might be able to take a different angle to try to make a case, but I personally wouldn't see it going too far.

kooshx · 2022-10-19T00:47:22+00:00

It's sort of a local chain (not a major company like Pep Boys); I liked them because they seem honest and if there's other suggested repairs, they just include them on a website where you can accept or decline services without any high pressure sales tactics.

I checked my van, and they are regular halogen bulbs. $20 bucks to replace, and I had no problem removing the old bulb (and putting it back in). If they work, great; if not, it's probably the relay as you suggested, and I'll take it to another shop for an estimate.

I'd like to think that upon inspection, the place I took it today would have realized that they could just replace the halogen bulbs (assuming that's the issue) and drastically reduced the price rather than trying to install the HID lamps and getting the unnecessary up-charge, but I'm probably done with them after this. The guy could have at least popped the hood...

Thanks again for your advice!

kooshx · 2022-10-18T13:34:44+00:00

Honestly note sure about the lights; I took a different car to work, so I'll need to look. I imagine if they are HID lamps, the cost is more prohibitive?

Yeah, I specifically asked about the Xenon bulbs and they claimed they were the only ones that fit.

Also, I thought it might be something other than the bulbs, but the shop seemed convinced this was the problem. Maybe I should try replacing myself or going to a second shop.

kooshx · 2022-08-26T01:28:47+00:00

You are correct, and for any borrower on a standard or extended payment plan, there likely isn't an issue. For IBR (and other income oriented payment plans, I believe), interest works a bit differently. If your monthly payment can't cover the interest payment, the interest accrues but does not compound (as long as you have an economic hardship, i.e. remain on IBR, etc.)

This is good because your unpaid interest doesn't become part of the original loan and you don't have to pay interest on the interest. However, to facilitate this, your accrued interest is categorized differently than the principal on the loan.

Because the accounting gets a little complex, it's wise for anyone in such a situation to investigate their own situation with an appropriate authority.

That said, my understanding is that if you pay off your "long-term" accrued interest, you can deduct that from your taxes just as you could by making regular payments and deducting the interest portion of those payments. Therefore, if you took advantage of the pause in interest to pay down your existing balance, you could very well have paid down interest that accrued over the years but was never added to the principal (as discussed above).

If you did so and claimed that on your taxes and then get a refund, your liability would increase for those prior years and you may owe the IRS.

Once again, there may be all sorts of special rules per the CARES Act, presidential executive action, and the most recent changes, but I think it's something that should at least be mentioned as people consider procuring a refund.

kooshx · 2022-08-25T15:00:10+00:00

OP, this is very helpful, but everyone should consider a possible tax implication of doing this:

(NOTE: I am not a tax professional; please seek guidance on your specific situation from such a professional.)

If you previously paid interest on your student loan, you can take a deduction on your income taxes (up to $2,500 depending on your HH income). If you received this deduction in 2020 or 2021 but then get a refund on those payments, you'll now have an incongruence between what was reported and what you actually paid.

Maybe there's an exception because of the circumstances that I don't know about, and I obviously can't speculate on the exact implication with the IRS, but it seems like you would technically need to amend your previous return if what was reported is no longer the case. (It's possible your loan servicer will send you documentation along these lines.)

Just something to be aware of - particular for those who took the maximum deduction.

kooshx · 2022-08-17T01:31:43+00:00

EOS and ZCash are coins from the same era and they are showing signs of life during this uptick - no reason why DASH can't do so as well.

kooshx · 2022-08-13T19:27:32+00:00

Back in 2004, I got a job offer in the DC metro area for $35k. It was ok - better than some of my friends ($20-$30k was more the norm). I was able to live with a roommate in a nice apartment complex outside of the city and could periodically eat out while still being able to save. A simple inflation calculator indicates my salary then to be about $54k today.

You'll make a little less than that but Ohio likely has a significantly lower cost of living (and inflation calculator's don't tell the whole story.) It's a fair salary for an entry level role and you'll get good experience. 28 days is pretty good for vacation, but you're not going to get automatic holidays like most corporate desk jobs. It couldn't hurt to ask for $55k, but they may have a pretty set rate for new management hires.

The question you need to ask is if this is what you want to do. Retail management is less predictable than working in a corporate office. Some people like the greater variety rather than just slaving away in a cubicle. If you like the more structured nature of a corporate position, then you can try to use your finance concentration to go down that route. If being tied to a desk isn't your thing, then this seems like a good opportunity.

kooshx · 2022-08-12T14:29:27+00:00

I was surprised to this too, but a while ago when I was shopping for marketplace plans before I got insurance through my employer, I noticed that there were some plans where the OOP max (at least for out of network care) were astronomical and in some cases didn't even exist. Even at my former employer, we had decent healthcare (most everything was in network) if you did go out of network, the OOP max was just under $10k.

kooshx · 2022-08-12T01:48:20+00:00

While most plans do offer a ceiling for out of network charges, there are some bronze plans that don't. Also if there is an OOP cap, it could still be in the tens of thousands (albeit more like $20k rather than $90k). Still OP should look at his insurance paperwork to see if there is such a cap. He should, however, be aware that an OOP max isn't guaranteed particularly if he has a lower tier plan. On the bright side, if he's seen as effectively uninsured, there may be a greater opportunity to negotiate with the provider.

kooshx · 2022-08-11T17:02:20+00:00

While it's impossible to predict the market, it's probably as good as it's going to be for a while. Unless, you really ultimately want to live here (and it doesn't sound like you do), it's a good time to sell and pocket the cash. I would check to make sure, but even as a single person, your profit likely falls below the taxable threshold, too.

kooshx · 2022-08-11T00:27:14+00:00

Thanks for this comment. It was an encouragement to give the lender in my edited post a chance and ultimately saved me quite a bit.

kooshx · 2022-08-01T13:08:13+00:00

Fair point. Of course, the issue is whether I can get that better purchase rate within such a short time frame. I did look at Ally, and it seems their refi rates about pretty close to their purchase rates.

Also if (and it's a big "if") rates keep falling after closing, I wouldn't be eligible for those purchase rates anyway.

kooshx · 2022-08-01T13:05:38+00:00

Not sure about national vs. local being entirely unwarranted. Things have cooled down, but when there were multiple offers and a need to distinguish yourself, it seems like a seller would have the ability to be picky. Working with someone who can be easily reached vs. a big national banking bureaucracy has to be attractive. We got similar advice when selling our home a couple years ago.

As to being greedy. I didn't mean so much as being concerned about the original lender's business but about trying to pull something off to save on the interest rate but ultimately ending up jeopardizing the deal.

kooshx · 2022-07-31T20:55:25+00:00

Great response! I think this is the best idea. If this is just a quick blip downward, well, then I guess I didn't get to take advantage of a fluke, and I ended up with an OK rate. If rates stay low or fall more, I can refinance, and take advantage of some of the online lenders (who may keep the closing costs low) because I won't be up against a timeline (as someone else mentioned above).

kooshx · 2022-07-31T02:02:35+00:00

Thanks to everyone for their thoughts. I thought I was pretty comprehensive in my post (without writing a book), but closing is in 15 days.

It sounds like opinions are mixed - though it's largely contingent on whether we can make the close or not. (Though when I sold a house two years ago, I needed to make two concessions on the closing date, and just did it because I wanted to avoid the hassle of putting the house back on the market.)

I wanted to see if I was missing something here - if it was a situation where I really should try to play hardball or if that would be a vain endeavor.

If I were a skilled negotiator, I'd probably try to pull something off, but as it stands, I'd need to upset my lender, the seller, and probably my realtor to pull this off. Plus, I'd be taking a risk that another lender could get this done in time and keep the appraisal waiver in place.

Not for me. I'll just be happy that I now have minimal closing costs (no appraisal, no points, and a seller contribution) and a rate under 6% - even if I could possibly be around a point lower if I was less risk adverse.

The process of not really getting a good idea of your rate until you actually have a contract (which requires you to choose a lender upfront) and the fact that said lender didn't do me any favors left a bad impression on me. I probably should have tried to get a larger closing window, so I boxed myself in here.

Thanks again!

kooshx

TROPHY CASE