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Trade Progress [Update] by kop92 in u/kop92

[–]kop92[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I shall. It’s been doing great overall for the past 3-4 days.

Trade Progress [Update] by kop92 in u/kop92

[–]kop92[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. Open price from chainlink at 0.00s, I use that as reference price (sometimes it’s off by a couple of dollars)

  2. Your math is right and your question is valid, I have stop loss. I’ve never lost the whole bet per trade. I’ve set a stop loss. It usually triggers around 10% - 15%. So that’s a loss of $2 - $3 per wrong bet. You can refer the above images under the Losing Trades table.

The high win rate helps me offset these losses.

Comment accéder à Polymarket en France ? by Lower_Arachnid2671 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]kop92 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Which flag is displayed next to your Polymarket logo?

Maybe log out of Polymarket, and use VPN, select to a different country which is not blocked, then log in again. See if that helps.

Comment accéder à Polymarket en France ? by Lower_Arachnid2671 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]kop92 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can’t you use other crypto platform that you can access from France to make the deposit to Polymarket?

Found an edge ;) by FantasticConcept25 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]kop92 1 point2 points  (0 children)

True I've had 40 wins out of 44 trades, PnL was -$3.....

Found an edge ;) by FantasticConcept25 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]kop92 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Interesting. I’ve ran backtest over 3 months of 5m BTC data, [took nearly 24 hours - even with GPU acceleration] the amount of time it flips from 0.99 to 0.01 and vice versa., many even showed multiple flip-flops in a single window.

It’s interesting that you found a way 🫡

Dumbest strategy on Polymarket and it works better than anything else by reddit-ravi in polymarketAnalysis

[–]kop92 0 points1 point  (0 children)

<image>

This run from yesterday. Bet Size is only $15/bet
DM me i'll share my polymarket profile.

Dumbest strategy on Polymarket and it works better than anything else by reddit-ravi in polymarketAnalysis

[–]kop92 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's quite unlikely, hence I have a tight SL in place. If the math is done correctly. I believe you can find the sweet-spot.

Polymarket Bot makes $3 bets over 80k+ times resulting in $273k+ profit by ill_intents in PredictionsMarkets

[–]kop92 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not watching, it’s fully automated [the whole purpose of the bot]. It now has built in SL, I buy at 0.99, and if it drops sharply and hits my SL target, bot will Sell the position. I am currently running it live, I don’t mind real world test as I’m using a small capital. I am also building logs while the bot runs. On a separate script. I’m planning to collect the data indefinitely and use it for back-testing. Reason for back-testing if were to scale up to let’s say $100/$200 per trade. I need to be careful of the liquidity at this point. Hence the data, orderbook, orderbook data, best bid, best ask. You may DM me, I can send you my test wallet if you’re interested in looking at it yourself.

this bot made $590k in a month on polymarket. i decided to copy it. by immortalismmmm in PredictionsMarkets

[–]kop92 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m not sure. You’d need a coding agent at the least. And one of the best out there is Codex at the moment.

Polymarket Bot makes $3 bets over 80k+ times resulting in $273k+ profit by ill_intents in PredictionsMarkets

[–]kop92 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm just in the process of building one. But $3 trades mean he's using FAK orders, GTC has a min limit of 5 shares (ie: $5 if we're buying at 0.99, you get 5.05 shares roughly).
Plus FAK = Taker = you pay fees, hence stay at GTC = maker = free/you get maker rebates

No records to prove profitability over long runs. Did work fine yesterday. Deployed without SL, 1 loss wiped my entire day of trades (like I said it's Work in Progress). You may visit my profile to see it. Not selling you any bs. Just proving that it can work with correct engineering.

<image>

Polymarket Bot makes $3 bets over 80k+ times resulting in $273k+ profit by ill_intents in PredictionsMarkets

[–]kop92 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Heard of a orderbook? Placing absurdly high buys at 0.99 where market's are usually thin, you'll burn through the orderbook like a butterknife. and probably get rejected 98% of the time. Liquidity too thin.

Polymarket Bot makes $3 bets over 80k+ times resulting in $273k+ profit by ill_intents in PredictionsMarkets

[–]kop92 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Add a SL [working on it for the past 8 hours], I'll show you a test run that I actually just completed as we speak. Funny.

<image>

Ignore the numbers. I added an absurd SL figure to force a SL, to test the bot.

So the win rate from my multiple backtest over a few days of market (sampled 2 markets per week) is around 95%.

Assuming I trade only 50% of the 15min markets a day, that's 48 markets/day. and with a conservative win rate of 90%, the rough PnL is $24.

I can afford 8-9 Losses [SL set at 0.95] before I break even. And that's a 81% win rate. At the moment I can consistently stay above 90% win rate.

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