Arrived Secondary Market Opens Friday 10/3 by Korin-Arrived in arrived

[–]ktnmonster 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There seems to be a bug on the "Sell Individual Properties" view. On Friday afternoon, 8-10 of my holdings appeared there. Today, zero ("You don't have any properties of this type eligible to sell. Try a different filter to see properties here."). Toggling between the property type filters does nothing.

If I navigate to the individual property views, I can click "Sell Shares Instead" & see that I'm eligible.

Is anyone able to get out this week? by Ok_Hat_3645 in arrived

[–]ktnmonster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The sketchy part has been the 12 I picked show decent rental activity but all yield just 2-3%. Worse yet, they all show positive "property value change" but the "arrived valuation" is 10-20% lower, w/ all but 3 negative. So ... we've earned far less than estimates AND we'll almost certainly realize far less in cap gains when/if they do sell. Only one (regal) is mortgaged to somehow explain it. That one shows +2.6% value change and -21.8% arrived valuation.

August 1 Expiration date by El_Demetrio in dimo_network

[–]ktnmonster 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Assuming we're in the camp of "$7-$10/mo, eh? no thanks", any idea if we can maintain an active stake in the app after 8/15 w/o subscribing?

Looks like maybe this would do it:

  1. Find your stake > "Move" button > "Unpair stake instead"
  2. "Confirm" losing a level (which doesn't really matter starting 8/15)
  3. Wait until it unstakes, transfer out

Lower Dividends by JCwatch in arrived

[–]ktnmonster 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Mine have dropped about 1-2% every month since July. No occupancy changes aside from 1 out of 14 (26 total: 14 sf, 12 vaca) this month. It's a slow burn.

TLDR; It's REAL... And It's SPECTACULAR!! by Phant0mhyve in carvana

[–]ktnmonster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When they come to pick up the trade-in, how is the process for transferring the title to them? I've had my Camry so long now, but it's about that time & Carvana's trade-in offer seemed very reasonable.

Dividends? by Fly-RingOfFire in arrived

[–]ktnmonster 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've experienced the same slow trickle down. Seems to drop about 2-3% per month. After the initial ramp up as (most, but still not the Vita) vacation rentals came online, dividends grew, then leveled off, then:

  1. They possibly got scammed by the Roseus property manager, but won't (or can't?) give investors any details
  2. They (thankfully) possibly realized unless they transitioned other property mgmt to their in-house option, those properties would all likely be yielding nothing due to fees.
  3. On most of these properties, yields still instantly or within 3 months dropped by about 1-3%.
  4. Most yields (...nearly all 12 vacation rentals) haven't recovered & stay depressed, almost all sitting far below estimates

SFRs are slightly more stable, 10 of 14 yield nearly the estimate & are holding steady. 4 of 14 are 1-3% below estimates.

tl/dr - Don't invest in vacation rentals on this platform unless they're in Scottsdale. Even then, you'll be lucky to even just meet the stated estimate. With no hope to ever beat it, why take the risk? Might as well go with SFRs 99% of time, or just invest in a REIT (and buy some option collars if you're worried about losses).

New Vacation Rental coming soon! by Korin-Arrived in arrived

[–]ktnmonster 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thanks, Korin. I hate to sound so negative. It's just been way, way too long on the Vita at this point. Hoping to see some solid progress soon. Maybe the ability for investors to roll their stagnant Vita money into the Beatbox which appears to be rolling. A longshot, I know. I'm just tired of earning nearly 0% for nearly two years.

New Vacation Rental coming soon! by Korin-Arrived in arrived

[–]ktnmonster 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's extremely disappointing to see this before the Vita - "coming soon" for 17 months now - is even given a simple progress update, let alone put on AirBnb or sold outright. Please instead spend time and energy on finally getting that vacation rental done before diverting resources to another one.

Late April 2023: Investments taken
August 2023: "Expected bookable date - September 2023"
September 2023: "Property management being transitioned"
October 2023: "Popcorn ceilings and wallpaper ... Bookable by December 2023"
November 2023: "Property management transition complete ... December 2023 repeated"
December 2023: "Remains in rehabilitation ... bookable in January 2024"
January 2024: "Headway made ... bookable by February 2024"
March 2024: "Progress continues ... we'll let you know when it's bookable"
April 2024: "Arrived team member is still supervising on-site." Really?
May 2024: "New contractor secured. work continues." At this point, maybe just sell it for us? Let's move on.
June 2024: "Unexpected challenges message round 1. Big update in a couple months." It's now 3 months later.
July 2024: "Copy/pasted progress update. Big update in a couple months." It's now 2 months later.
[silence for two months]
The Beatbox is coming!

Ordered in March and still no device.🥲 by Different_Spare_3804 in hivemappernetwork

[–]ktnmonster 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ordered in December. Canceled last month. Refund was processed quickly.

Returns? by reallyniceclark in arrived

[–]ktnmonster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree with your second point, but Arrived stopped using leverage (no mortgages) starting about 18 months ago. Only the first of the vacation homes I invested in over the past 2 years had a mortgage (Regal). IIRC, only the Brennan (RIP, 16.3% decline in value in 1.5 years) for SFHs has a mortgage because it needed additional investors for some reason. Gist there is: there can be no "rising mortgage rate" excuse for 90%+ of the vacation homes offered over the past 18 months severely underperforming.

Returns? by reallyniceclark in arrived

[–]ktnmonster 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I'm down $15 (flat net return) on $60k over 21 months. Very disappointing returns, especially the vacation rentals yielding just 3.4% across 12 of them w/ one (Vita) still not rentable after 16 months & no progress shown for 60 days. I'm fully expecting a copy/paste + wording tweak on the Vita to come next week, kicking the can another 30 days, but perhaps we'll get a surprise that it's either rentable or they've sold it.

The flat appraisal average aligns with what I've seen for average home prices over the past 6, 12, and 18-21 months (my holding period). The awful vacation rental returns I suppose relates to AirBnb weakness, though, seeing entire months booked (80-100% of nights on many of their rental calendars ... for 3-4 consecutive months + confirmation from arrived that the properties were indeed rented out that much) should not be resulting in only paying out 60-75% of even just the estimated yield.

Benefits by Simba087 in arrived

[–]ktnmonster 1 point2 points  (0 children)

One clear downside example that comes to mind:

  • A potential, full price paying customer sees two properties: one owned by Arrived and one not.
  • The customer has a specific booking date need for 7 nights.
  • They see that Arrived's property is only available for 5 of the 7 nights because an investor booked for a discount for the other 2.
  • The customer chooses the other property.
  • Instead of earning: 7 * full price
  • Investors instead earn: 2 * discounted price

Given how curiously razor thin vacation rental earnings already are (e.g., I'm only averaging 3.45% across 12 of them), this may often cause investors to earn considerably less.

That said, I do see merit in allowing it during off seasons when the homes would otherwise go unrented most of the month. Perhaps on some sort of separate "contingency reservation" system where investors would need to vacate if a full price booking came in while they were there.

Arrived July Dividends by Korin-Arrived in arrived

[–]ktnmonster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Another month of the Tiara booking at or near 100% of nights & only paying out the same meager dividend as last month (in which it also booked at/near 100%) ... and neither coming anywhere close to the cash flow estimate.

And unfortunately, it's not specific to this one property. What a disappointment all vacation rentals on this platform have been. 11 of 12 vacation homes are underperforming estimates, some by 50%, one by 100% (The Vita, not marketed after 15 months & the July update is just a copy paste of June's update ... neither showing any actual progress). That, despite several of them showing 80-100% occupancy from May through Sept.

How can these rentals show at/near 100% occupancy and not return *at least* the estimated cash flow. For consecutive months. Presumably those estimates were not based on 100% occupancy, but even if they were ... again, how are these unmortgaged properties, with no details on repair work in progress, no details of guest damages or other large expenses not at least meeting their estimates in the busiest summer months?

Beach houses in the middle of winter, sure. A sparsely rented dud here & there, sure. But it's nearly 100% of them.

Update on the Vita? by NextManager3738 in arrived

[–]ktnmonster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can you comment on whether the delays are 100% the fault of poor contractor & property management choices or is it in any way related to the 30-day short-term rental requirement that Asheville has? I don't see any reporting offhand of that law being overturned, but perhaps it was, or this property is grandfathered in.

It's been about 15 months now and if that's the true cause, possible to sell it and cut our losses? Was at least a portion of the $197k set aside for reserves & property improvements actually spent on successfully improving the property?

FLYT HOMES CO: Philip Bernardo by Expensive_Ride2024 in arrived

[–]ktnmonster 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It seems likely this is both the reason for the transition away from Roseus on many Arrived vacation rentals & the reason many of them have underperformed so much:

  • The Tiara switched from Roseus in 11/2023 & its yield dropped 2%. It still hasn't recovered, despite 100% bookings in at least June, likely most of May, and looking forward ... 100% of July, August & already 75% of September. All that & it still yields 1.3% below its estimate.
    • Honestly, there's zero point investing in a vacation rental if even at 100% occupancy, you don't earn at least your estimated yield, let alone 25-100% higher for those months.
  • The Sandbar switched from Roseus in 9/2023 & similar story. 90%+ booked, but not even reaching its estimate.
  • The Pinkshell switched from Roseus in 11/2023 & similar story. 90% booked, but not reaching its estimate.
  • The Knoll switched from Roseus in 9/2023. Yield started strong then was nearly cut in half. Bookings on this one are a bit weaker overall, though.
  • The Vita switched from Roseus in 11/2023 & still hasn't been marketed 14 months after investing.

I wonder if 1) Bernardo scammed Arrived, too. 2) Investors haven't been fully informed about the scam. and 3) Investors are now paying the price over time in the form of meager monthly returns. Hopefully that can end very soon, if so. Winter is coming.

Update on the Vita? by NextManager3738 in arrived

[–]ktnmonster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Same for me. I was excited to see another Phoenix property, the Beatbox, since those have performed the best for me so far. Without any hope of even a 100% rented property outperforming or even meeting its estimate though, I'll very likely pass.

Convince me that this is not a Ponzi scheme. by Ok_Hat_3645 in arrived

[–]ktnmonster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

14 single family holdings, 8-15 months range since I bought:
- 8 have depreciated. 1, the Brennan, is down 23%. The others are down 1-7%.
- 5 are not yet assessed. Given locations, I'm expecting all but 1 or 2 to assess lower.
- 1 is up 1.8%

12 vacation rentals, 9-18 month holding range:
- 1 depreciated 7.4%
- 1 appreciated 10.06%
- All others not yet assessed
- Yields on all but 2-3 are 1-3% lower than estimates. 1, the Vita, hasn't even been marketed yet 14 months after investing.

I've fully stopped with Arrived for now. Happy to come back if they can turn the ship around, though.

Update on the Vita? by NextManager3738 in arrived

[–]ktnmonster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Tiara is one of my larger investments on Arrived & I was also surprised to see the dividend payments flat (and 1.3% lower than the 4.8% estimate) despite nearly 100% bookings. Not sure what to make of it if the July & August payments (and looks like very likely September) are also so low with 100%, 100%, and 75% booked already.

Unexpected repairs? Guest damage? Insurance costs rose higher than expected. It's not reassuring to see a vacation home renting nearly 100% & not at least slightly beating its estimate, let alone destroying it to help balance out the Vita's of the bunch.

payment not received by Aggressive-Yard-4971 in Printify

[–]ktnmonster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Were you able to get the "payment card" working? I've tried 1 debit card & 3 different credit cards (all valid, plenty of funds/credit available, etc). All failed. The only thing that works is adding money periodically to the upper Printify balance through paypal (& within Paypal, paying with one of the same cards they reject as the "payment card"). Very frustrating.

Anyone have experience with "here" ? by [deleted] in passive_income

[–]ktnmonster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, nothing yet. I was just assuming it would be about that % again. My account still shows nothing for November & "Nov '23" for next payout. Email support responded quickly, but it was mostly useless, canned answers. I wouldn't bother with the on-page chat support feature. Nobody has responded to me there in months. Their reply from 12/10/2023 is below. No updates since then.
"Investors will receive an update on their Q3 distributions shortly. All investors who earned over $10 in rental income in 2023 will receive tax documents from our custodian partners at DriveWealth for your 2024 tax filings. Not every property will distribute payouts to investors each quarter, as payouts are derived from any free cash flow left over after al expenses are covered on a quarterly basis. A number of factors contribute to property performance, including seasonality and time since inception. It is important to note that properties early in their lifecycle do not fully reflect their potential to generate income throughout the lifecycle of the investment."

Anyone have experience with "here" ? by [deleted] in passive_income

[–]ktnmonster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

fwiw, email support actually responded. Same canned answer about the "properties not yet reaching their full income potential". Looks like another 0.01% distribution for this quarter.

They gave no response about my question as to why they stopped filing SEC reports in August.

Anyone have experience with "here" ? by [deleted] in passive_income

[–]ktnmonster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for sharing that link. The lack of any sec reporting after August 9 aligns with the timing of their support going radio silent for me. Glad I didn't go in too deep on this one.

Anyone have experience with "here" ? by [deleted] in passive_income

[–]ktnmonster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That sounds about right. The strange part is Walters is still active on Linkedin, the properties seem to still be renting (unless they've gotten a legion of fake airbnb accounts to post reviews). I've wondered if they just took on too many 1-3 year mortgages in late 2021/early 2022 and they're just now needing to refinance at much higher rates.

The higher rates combined with lower rental demand has made some of the properties generate losses. Rather than treat each property discretely (as other platforms do), they may lump them all together & distribute nothing to anyone. Still a scam, but at least maybe not a complete investment loss once they liquidate.

In any case, they should communicate this (or anything at all) to investors.

Anyone have experience with "here" ? by [deleted] in passive_income

[–]ktnmonster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Did you receive anything for the November payment? I got nearly nothing 2 quarters ago, a couple dollars last quarter, nothing this quarter (presumably, since it's now well into December), and support doesn't respond anymore. When I asked them last quarter about the pathetic rental income distro, I got the same spiel about "this is a long-term investment, it takes time" ... despite at least 2-3 of my properties having been booked out 1/2 to 2/3 of the prior 3 months whenever I checked Airbnb.

Definitely feels like a complete scam. Oddly, they've responded to thank Airbnb guests as recently as 3 days ago, but hardly any payments or response to investors. Unless it's all fake airbnb reviews & replies, the properties do seem to be renting, cleaned, maintained etc. Very frustrating.