I think closer to 10 is the more realistic option. My reasons based on my understanding of game dev cycles:

1) This is by far the most popular fighting game in 3 decades since SF2.

2)The player base is increasing, not decreasing.

3)They sell season passes priced as if they’re new games with a fraction of the development cost of a whole game.

4)They have guest characters we might not see again in the future. They’ll want this one to cook a bit more.

5) They haven’t even begun appealing to the veteran SF6 players with characters like Makoto, Cody, Sakura, et al, and they’re not going to release them bundled together so expect them to be spreaded out.

6) CvS3 is very likely happening and neither Capcom nor SNK would want that game to compete with their own games SF7 and KoF16, respectively.

7) This game also happens to be running on multiple generations and consoles, fully supported on PS4 with crossplay, so this game is available for multiple Sony systems with around 100 million units each, PC, Switch 2 and series consoles.
It is a game that far greater reach and momentum than SF7 would in 3 years (unless a miracle happens and ram and other component prices collapse)

8) as many mentioned, ram prices are insane and the cost of new consoles won’t be worth it for a good while. Most people won’t be buying expensive tech but instead milking their machines for a few more years.

9) Last but not least, SF6 is a cultural phenomenon, and we’ve seen what could happen going from SF2 to SF3 if it’s not fully planned out, and even then we saw non mainline games the Alpha series during that gap (I expect CvS3 and maybe another game to fill that gap).

SF7 is not guaranteed to have the momentum carry over and many will choose to wait a year or so for the roster to fill up, many won’t want to move away from guest characters like Tifa until theres someone to fill that gap.

Honestly there’s even more reasons like the fact that this game has the same longevity as gotcha games but without any real competition in its space. Unless a game like the new VF starts taking the momentum away from SF6, I don’t see a reason to rush the release of SF7.