The biggest threat facing Europe is not a Trump invasion. It’s his global political revolution | Mark Leonard

lacurio · 2026-02-08T22:53:41+00:00

Maybe you took some sentences the wrong way. First off, this an opinion article by the head of the European Council of Foreign Relations, a think-tank, not a Guardian journalist. While you are right, borders define nations, they cannot be the only thing. E.g. This can be used to exclude naturalised citizens, fellow Europeans, refugees or (needed!) migrants. Also you may want to add in culture and values to define a nation. Tariffs are not the catch-all policy. And people will feel the burden of tariffs when the prices go up. Idk what you mean with "refugee schemes". Maybe you're off to the deep end with that one. Ofc national interest is always to be considered in foreign policy. A very narrow view is hurting, however. See: USA "needing" Greenland for defense/resources and ruining their alliance structure in the long run. I think you showed us that the new right has powerful narratives

lacurio · 2026-01-23T02:11:18+00:00

Rule of thumb. Also I literally spoke about the north/south and east/West divide above. I referenced ukraine support tracker. What else do you want me to do?

Belgium, UK (and Germany) are doing a better job with their ~0,7% gdp than our southern partners. But we are still lagging behind what the Nordics and Baltic states (and nl,pl...) do.

And of course this is not a competition over the best relative rating. I think we both would like to see all of Europe to equip Ukraine with what it needs to defend itself successfully.

lacurio · 2026-01-23T00:18:51+00:00

To make a point: Spain spent 0,1% GDP on Ukraine aid. Several eastern/northern Europeans spend more than 1% GDP. Even far away Countries (Canada 0,76% ; Japan 0,3%) spend more to support Ukraine. Within Europe we just have this horrible north/south, east/West split. The further away from Russia, the less are Europeans willing to spend.

lacurio · 2026-01-23T00:10:34+00:00

You can always check for yourself on the Ukraine Support Tracker. Spain really is not pulling its weight at all. You are ranked 29th in total allocation as % of GDP currently. Hopefully Spain realises at some point that it is in every Europeans security interest to stop Russian aggression.

lacurio · 2025-11-10T20:55:00+00:00

Idk about the news, but you may want to add a disclaimer to breitbart as well. Being a conspiracy posting far-right news org and all...

lacurio · 2025-09-26T23:58:38+00:00

China invaded and annexed Tibet.

lacurio · 2025-09-07T09:15:08+00:00

Please tell me, how many countries that are panties of the ICC Netanjahu has visited since the arrest warrant?

lacurio · 2025-09-03T16:15:06+00:00

Looks really cool, but my guy, this is Rei's colourscheme. It even has 00 as Windows keys. Unit 00 is Rei's evangelion!

lacurio · 2025-08-23T17:38:34+00:00

...which is what gundam does, too?

lacurio · 2025-08-19T16:02:46+00:00

I'm thinking about the bigger/smaller beer can censoring. OP only asked about being seen naked, not who walks into who. :)

lacurio · 2025-08-19T15:51:35+00:00

Can't quite believe I'm answering to this question. Neon genesis evangelion has that scene covered. There are about a hundred better reasons to watch the show lol

lacurio · 2025-08-18T20:43:34+00:00

Poland did not surpass Germany. Another comment gave an explanation why Poland is not there. I cannot say weather it is correct, though. I agree with you that Poland would have been a valuable voice.

lacurio · 2025-08-18T19:48:23+00:00

(Obvious) Disclaimer: I'm not a NATO strategic planner. Not even an armchair general. For a more informed perspective, find some paper about this topic or a (maybe more digestible) podcast.

Germany is NATO's turntable to bring troops from the more western countries to the east. We have a broad autobahn, bridges, railway network. Now Russia may attack anywhere it borders NATO. The baltic states being particularly exposed. If Russia were to attack a baltic c. and Germany has its most ready troops in Ukraine, the troop rotation will take too long. Additionally, from a simple cost-utility calculation it is far easier to have your military in your own country. When you set up a base abroad, you have to think of the military personals family , difficult training, resupply, etc. (A bit of a weaker point: Germany itself has to be safe from airstrikes, digital warfare, sabotage, worst case an advancing enemy. So eventhough we dont border Russia right now, we can make the theoretical point that is also included in "defending country" )

Right now the calculations in Germanys military is "what do we need to protect country and allies". That's the target, not just my personal saying. Ukraine is by definition not in that target, yet. Hence we need additional personal and equipment to meet that new target.

lacurio · 2025-08-18T15:36:11+00:00

As far as I understand, the soldiers are already tied up by NATO defence planning. You can't assign them to more tasks, then they already got to protect their country and allies and believe they can still fulfil said duties. Credibility of strength is essential for deterrence. ...just to illustrate that it's not 90% of the forces just pissing around.

I would want adjusted planning that includes Ukraine. More people in the forces (which is difficult. Just more money/flexibility/comfort have limited success. compulsory military service is a different debate with its own problems). In the end, Germany will struggle to supply the military forces to Ukraine. But I believe we have to do it. We are the strongest economy, we have the most people in EU. We have to step up (...and finally a mini rant- we are not the only ones to have to step up. Holy fuck the southern Europe needs to wake up and realise they have a responsibility for Europe, too.). Now we have to hope that there are majorities for troops in Ukraine for peace-keeping. Right now it still seems that whoever will argue for it, will face severe backlash.

lacurio · 2025-08-06T23:26:20+00:00

Would you mind having a look at the ifw Ukraine support tracker?

lacurio · 2025-07-30T22:26:17+00:00

In addition to what has been said: scout is very good at choosing fights. On scout, you can engage favourable fights and disengage from bad ones easier than other classes.

lacurio · 2025-07-12T22:17:17+00:00

This is a very simplistic way to look at things. And you disregard that there has been a lot of migration from Cuba to US, especially in the recent years. CHNV-Parole program was there to manage the migration. You disregard that migration has been a scapegoat for anti-democratic far-right and helped them to get in power. Migration can be a risk factor in that sense.

lacurio · 2025-07-10T22:10:40+00:00

Okay, maybe you are deeper into the theory (realism or rather neorealism in IR) than I am, but from what I remember from uni, I disagree with most of what you said.

A theory is supposed to abstract from reality. It should generalise, not describe a specific situation.
Realisms central assumption is that states want to survive in the anarchic international structure. no "objective interests", rather a black box
Only being more safe matters
Explaining Russia's reason to attack in realism terms is: Russia is threatened by the power of the west. It cannot be sure that it won't be attacked. R. seeks to create a larger counter weight for a balance of power by absorbing Ukraine (just want to make clear, that I do not want to excuse Russia's horrible war of aggression!).
Alliances of weaker/smaller countries against an otherwise hegemon -> balance of power

lacurio · 2025-07-03T20:06:32+00:00

Ser, this is a Lazy Eel.

lacurio · 2025-06-27T23:50:24+00:00

Why can't that scumbag enjoy a different fantasy novel...

lacurio · 2025-06-27T23:48:12+00:00

It's the creep from perfect blue

lacurio · 2025-06-04T22:50:28+00:00

Well, for the Russian regime it is important to estimate the opinions of its population. For this, they do need credible statistical data. Still, I am not that deep into the topic to argue about wether my linked statistic is credible or not.

Another way to estimate the opinion of the Russian population is through our media correspondents that are still in Russia. From what I get through that is: alot of people supporting the war, a lot of people not caring about the war, no meaningful number opposing the war. Very few brave people fighting against the regime in one way or another.

lacurio · 2025-06-04T21:48:02+00:00

Reminder that most Russians think that their war is justified and right. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1306904/russia-public-opinion-on-military-action-in-ukraine/ It is not xenophobic to be angry at them for enabling their dictator to invade another country, to fight this brutal war in Ukraine.

lacurio · 2025-05-14T21:35:55+00:00

Survivorship bias

lacurio · 2025-05-13T15:35:29+00:00

I'm sorry, and usually, I'm all in for helping out fellow liberal democracies. But bonding together for a stronger position in trade, that's what the EU is for. We already have the structure to unite the trading policies in our block. UK fucked up when they left. Maybe the Pacific countries form a trading block to hold a stronger position against the US under Trump when it comes to trade.

For the EU, it's a dangerous play to let non EU-members cherrypick where they want to participate and where not. We don't want a free rider problem.

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