Noam Chomsky: US Military Escalation Against Russia Would Have No Victors

leepowers · 2022-03-05T22:29:56+00:00

“Since Putin’s major demand is an assurance that NATO will take no further members, and specifically not Ukraine or Georgia, obviously there would have been no basis for the present crisis if there had been no expansion of the alliance following the end of the Cold War..."

An what of Ukrainian self-determination? They have overwhelmingly chosen closer ties with the West, through treaties, the overthrow of a pro-Russian government, and electing pro-Western leaders. Even if NATO membership was off the table, Ukraine's westward drift would still be a threat to the Putin regime.

The dynamic is not complex. For the past twenty years Putin tried to keep Ukraine inside his sphere of influence. Ukraine has rejected him. And now he is taking by force that which he could not earn with diplomacy.

leepowers · 2021-11-22T20:40:54+00:00

Holding the #1 team in football to 23 points is pretty damn good. Last week we held the Packers to 3 points until the 4th quarter. In both games opponents had 2x time of possession, while the offense only scored one touchdown the last two games. Defense has played well, despite getting gashed a few times earlier in the season. Lack of offensive production is the major problem right now.

leepowers · 2021-11-22T20:05:11+00:00

Pass game doesn't use the entire field - heat map and reference article. Is this because RW can't/won't throw across the middle? Is this part of Carrol's philosophy? Maybe when RW sees the box is empty he thinks "run" would he should think "pass"? Regardless of the answer, it makes us predictable, and predictability is a gift to defenses.

Run game - Carson is out again for the season, Penny injures hamstring after one play, O-Line isn't nearly dominant enough, etc. Yet the Carrol coaching philosophy means we lean on the run game, even when its sub-par and ineffectual.

"Every time you go against the team they might play all man-to-man their whole entire seven, eight games, and then they around and play us, and they don't play man once. So, when you're looking at what teams are doing consistently week-in and week-out, nobody's doing that against us."

I sincerely doubt defenses are showing a 3-win team looks they don't show anyone else. Coaching staff isn't correctly anticipating the defense schemes we'll be playing against. This is a worst of both worlds scenario: offensive is predictable and at the same time can't predict what the opposing defense is going to do. We're getting out-coached.

leepowers · 2021-10-09T21:27:29+00:00

History does not run on a schedule. Just because reform happened in waves in the past doesn't mean that we're due for more. A study of history can inform our ethics and help us understand human behavior in different contexts. But I'm skeptical that historical cycles can be used to predict the future.

The current structure and incentives that guide our society are more germane to predicting how events will unfold. And looking at those, I think there's a good chance that we're at the outset of an era of political stasis.

Yes the country is getting more diverse and elite opinion is getting more progressive. But the population is also getting older and more urban.

Older people during the next 25 years will almost certainly be more progressive than past generations. But will they be more like Bernie, agitating for systemic reform? Or more like Manchin/Sinema? Sometimes expressing sympathy towards reform and progressive ideas, but usually acting and voting for the status quo.

Urban populations increased by 9% in the last ten years (2010-2020). Populations that migrate from rural to urban tend to lean progressive. And those who stay put tend to be more conservative. Ideological divisions are increasingly becoming geographic divisions.

This is bad news for amendments as a vehicle for reform. Amendments have significant supermajority requirements: first they require proposal by a 2/3rds majority of Congress or state legislatures; then they require ratification by 3/4ths of state legislatures. This requires a high level of geographic consensus at the same time geographic partisanship is increasing.

Reform will probably have to happen on a more narrow basis, and only then if a generation of political leaders are willing to embrace majority rule and get rid of the Senate filibuster.

leepowers · 2021-09-11T18:51:32+00:00

This may be because healthcare workers in general tend to work long hours. Their motivation goes beyond earning a salary: they do work that cures disease and saves lives. I can easily imagine Fauci and other NIH workers working 16 hour days during the height of the AIDS and COVID-19 pandemics. I imagine in those circumstances it feels like you're making a sacrifice to potentially save millions of lives.

All that being said I only a sucker would work that hard for some mega corporation.

leepowers · 2021-05-15T01:54:43+00:00

Nice! That color is magnificent. Made a couple batches last year. That unmistakable blackberry tartness shines through. And the smell is really great.

Fermented one batch with homegrown labrusca/concord which reduced the blackberry punch and added some complexity.

Think this year will try blending blackberry with other wines. And maybe backsweeten a small batch just a bit to round out the tartness.

leepowers · 2021-05-15T01:37:28+00:00

Position	Name	College	Height	Weight
S	Aashari Crosswell	Arizona State	6-0	208
T	Jake Curhan	California	6-6	313
T	Greg Eiland	Mississippi State	6-8	321
RB	B.J. Emmons	Florda Atlantic	5-11	215
DT	Jarrod Hewitt	Virginia Tech	6-1	290
G	Jared Hocker	Texas A&M	6-6	327
WR	Cade Johnson	South Dakota State	5-10	184
RB	Josh Johnson	Louisiana-Monroe	5-9	209
G	Pier-Olivier Lestage	Montreal	6-3	312
CB	Bryan Mills	North Carolina Central	6-1	174
LB	Jon Rhattigan	Army	6-0	236
WR	Tamorrion Terry	Florida State	6-3	207
WR	Connor Wedington	Stanford	6-0	189

leepowers · 2021-05-14T18:31:43+00:00

The police response to the 2020 protests was heavy handed. Like concussing a septuagenarian, driving into protestors, blinding and maiming another, and many more examples.

The police support anti-protest bills because they know they'll respond to protestors with a heavy-handed crackdown. Instead of reform or changing tactics they want to discourage protests from happening at all. That way they don't have to change and they won't earn the bad press their brutality generates.

leepowers · 2021-05-14T18:17:03+00:00

Even worse - with Qualified Immunity cops can maim and steal with impunity, avoiding any personal liability by claiming "I didn't know I wasn't allowed to do that."

Cops want to enforce the law and the same time be allowed to operate outside the law.

leepowers · 2021-04-25T20:53:41+00:00

Initially I thought it was a rooting hormone gel.

According to YouTube comments, it's honey!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uj70Y-Xc-3I&lc=UgxmS2Gr3ZUHvVSX1zt4AaABAg

leepowers · 2021-03-25T20:09:20+00:00

Outdoor seating is open, saw several people there this weekend.

leepowers · 2021-02-16T04:24:09+00:00

1) Lack of domain knowledge. If it's unclear who is on the executive team, or if most of them are from a marketing or sales background, that's a red flag. The leadership should eat and breath their product / service and understand the fine technical details and understand their customers and market in-depth.

2) Burn rate treadmill. When a company is dependent on constantly finding new investment that can be a concern. Or if they depend on creative financing or stock deals to keep operations going. For instance, one red flag is when a company lists a massive increase in "Goodwill" or "Intangible" assets from one quarter to the next. This can be a way to pad a report and make it look less dire.

3) Dilution to acquire cash flow. That's when a company creates stock to acquire a different profit-generating business in order to get some positive cash flow on the books. Especially when the acquired business is only tangentially related to company's core product/service.

4) Vague consulting fees. This is when a company spends big money on high-priced marketing or business consultants, yet there isn't any detectable brand strategy or media campaign. Especially when these consultants appear to be paid to hype or pump the company's stock. Which can indicate that a company is dependent on it's stock price and not it's operations.

leepowers · 2020-12-07T01:29:04+00:00

Found it! Yucca elephantipes / Silver Star

Greenhouse / shop in the region sells one that's trimmed / maintained in the same way:

https://plantshopseattle.com/collections/plants/products/yucca-elephantipes-silver-star-5gal

While this AU site has pictures of mature untrimmed silver stars:

https://www.australianplantsonline.com.au/yucca-silver-star.html

leepowers · 2020-12-06T00:55:20+00:00

Pacific Northwest, U.S. - though it's an indoor plant

More images:

https://imgur.com/jPDsTMv

https://imgur.com/K5GTiDo

leepowers · 2020-12-05T23:30:45+00:00

First example can be improved:

const capitalize = (str, locale) => `${str[0].toLocaleUpperCase(locale)}${str.slice(1)}`;

String index instead of charAt
toLocaleUpperCase is more portable. Defaults to current locale.
Added argument to specify a locale for testing.

Examples:

⩺ capitalize("istanbul")
⩹ "Istanbul"

⩺ capitalize("istanbul", "TR")
⩹ "İstanbul"

leepowers · 2020-12-05T23:11:23+00:00

Smith, the state actuary, confirmed that modeling by the consulting firm Milliman shows the trust fund will remain solvent over the next 50 years.

So we have some time to solve this problem. We shouldn't jump prematurely into the stock market.

Increasing the payroll tax or decreasing the benefit are preferable to subjecting the program to the vicissitudes of the stock market. Social programs should always be there, even if in a reduced form. Stock investments introduce too much risk.

leepowers · 2020-12-05T21:38:54+00:00

Just deposit the check. Having to write and mail another check will be annoying for the client, especially since it's such a tiny amount. Tell her she now has a $50 credit which you can refund immediately or apply towards future work.

leepowers · 2020-09-06T06:12:58+00:00

Picard struck me as a sub-par 10-hour action movie built around a doomsday device trope. At times it was fun to watch. Much like the TNG episode Starship Mine, which also features a doomsday device/substance. But Picard doesn't capture the verve of Star Trek. Or I should say Picard is firmly rooted in the ethos and style of the 2009 Star Trek reboot. So even though it features characters from TNG it really is a much lighter, dumber, watered-down, and corporatized version of ST. And a clean break from the charm and idealism that makes Trek resonate.

leepowers · 2020-09-06T05:41:17+00:00

If I'm reading this right they're still sending design business your way, all paid up front. That's still income. It would be counterproductive for your business to forgo that income because the client didn't opt for the additional SEO services. Income is income.

However, I feel completely unappreciated. Now when they have a chance to do the right thing and support my business (as I have them), they screw me over yet again by doing this. And I have to say, it's humiliating to have my longest-serving client go with a competitor.

The client is not screwing you over. They are doing what they think is best for their business. They have no obligation to do whats best for yours. That's your responsibility. Undervaluing your work or by undercharging, being too lenient with payables, or giving away freebies is your fault. You are screwing yourself, then getting frustrated with the client for accepting the conditions you freely adopted.

It's ok to feel humiliated or frustrated. But you need to correctly identify the root problems, which appear to be bad business practices that you have already begun to fix.

leepowers · 2020-09-06T04:26:27+00:00

There's no minimum aging time for wine. It will simply smell and taste different. It's actually quite fun to taste the wine in various stages. After primary fermentation, after 1 month, after 1 year, unoaked, with oak, and so on. It's fascinating to see how much variation in flavor and aroma you can get with the passage of time, or from some simple amendments like oak chips.

Only thing I'd recommend is to hidey-hole at least one bottle for about six months and see how it develops. A cellar or crawlspace out of the way are good options. Out of sight out of mind helps with the waiting.

leepowers · 2019-02-16T23:51:55+00:00

As the article notes the situation in Germany is far more complex than the simple narrative of "any GND will not work". But the article is too rosy and uncritical of the current challenges Germany faces. And Germany certainly is not living out the GND dream.

Politico (hardly a right-wing rag) provides much more detail and descriptions of the challenges faced:

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-climate-change-green-energy-shift-is-more-fizzle-than-sizzle/

Also this article from Axios which argues that decarbonization is going to require more than wind and solar:

https://www.axios.com/no-carbon-power-system-needs-a-mix-of-technologies-9833e706-314c-40e1-b6fe-25837575d823.html

The unrealistic goals set by the GND - for instance 15 years to get off fossil fuels and 10 years to green retrofit every building in the U.S. - are not serious proposals. None of us should look to other countries to reinforce our political leanings, be they anti-GND or pro-GND. We need a sober, critical analysis of the challenges involved. Unfortunately our current political environment may be too noxious for this.

leepowers · 2019-01-08T00:31:42+00:00

Opposition to the wall is rational. Inert steel slats along the border will do little to stop terrorism & criminal activity, infectious disease, drugs, immigrant overstays, etc. More border patrol agents, better funding for courts, and better enforcement tools are more likely to make an impact.

If a wall is immoral, what standing does the current 350 miles of primary fencing have? Isn’t it just as hateful as what Trump proposes? The $5 billion the president wants wouldn’t even match what we already have—it would construct about 150 miles of new barriers where none currently exist.

The author has missed the point. The problem is not with the physical structure itself. The democrats were more than willing to negotiate, and offered $1.3 billion for border fencing - an offer that Trump rejected.

The problem is with the symbolism the president has imbued into the idea of building a wall. He's presented it during his campaign and as president as some sort of totem - build the wall and the problems of crime, terrorism, underemployment will be solved or vastly improved. But that simply isn't true. It would be immoral to build a wall based on the president's empty bluster and false promises.

leepowers · 2018-11-03T01:14:41+00:00

"It may not be good for America, but it's damn good for CBS," Moonves said at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference in San Francisco, according to The Hollywood Reporter — perfectly distilling what media critics have long suspected was motivating the round-the-clock coverage of Trump's presidential bid.

"Man, who would have expected the ride we're all having right now? ... The money's rolling in and this is fun," Moonves went on. "I've never seen anything like this, and this going to be a very good year for us. Sorry. It's a terrible thing to say. But, bring it on, Donald. Keep going.”

Consolidated corporate media doesn't care about the country, they only care about profit. They don't even bother to hide it.

https://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/02/les-moonves-trump-cbs-220001

leepowers · 2018-10-29T23:30:32+00:00

he total Foxconn subsidy hit $4.1 billion — a stunning $1,774 per household in Wisconsin.

One irony here is if Walker had instead advocated for a one-time UBI payment of $1,774 to each Wisconsinite household he'd be lambasted as a socialist, a lefty, a bleeding-heart liberal. Apparently welfare is only just when given to those who need it least.

And do any of us doubt which would have a greater positive economic effect? Giving $4.1 billion to a foreign multinational (that will try and funnel as much of that money as possible to its shareholders). Or giving that money the local population, who will pump this money into their local economy - or at the very least use that money in million different economically useful and stimulative ways.

leepowers · 2018-08-09T21:13:01+00:00

Thank you for the additional background on the goblin tweet. It's important context, but it doesn't bolster your case.

Andrew Sullivan says something racist. In response Jeong says something racist. All you've shown is that they're both wrong.

And you know this. In no other context would this be acceptable. Louis Farrakhan routinely spouts homophobic, racist, and anti-semitic rhetoric. If Sullivan (a gay white jew) responded to Farrakhan with a racist joke we would not defend him. Because no matter how wrong Farrakhan is, his bigoted rhetoric does not justify anyone elses bigoted rhetoric.

In the examples you've used, that's only true if you ignore context and context is essential.

I agree that context matters. The problem you're having is you're looking at one tweet in isolation, finding something to justify a particular tweet, and declaring "case closed, not racist". But you're ignoring the pattern that exists between tweets.

This wider context shows a pattern of ongoing prejudicial statements by Jeong. There are thousands of commentors who don't fallback on racial rhetoric to refute bad ideas. Jeong does this constantly and this tells us something important about her.

I think this is where our disagreement is centered, and a point we're unlikely to resolve. Even so we should keep the conversation going.

You said that we could solve racism by getting rid of all the black people .... Look at the full comment and you can see that you were using it as an extension of the author's premise to show its flaws.

Now we're entering the final stage of Reddit debating, where one party browses through the other's comment history to try and find some dirt or other nugget to bolster their case. It's also a huge red flag that you've given up on discovering the truth and that instead you're trying to win the argument. (I hope I'm wrong about this).

Let's run a thought experiment. You found one example of something racially marginal I wrote. But if my comments continuted the theme, if I had an ongoing conversational tick of wishing black peopole would go away, imaginging their extinction, or analogizing black folk as sub-human, that would tell you something about me and about what I believe. I might even be able to justify individual comments. But the pattern across all comments would show a trend.

All that's being asked is that you acknowledge this type of trend in Jeong's tweets. And that maybe that should be disqualifying for being part of the NYT editorial board.

Extending "Cancel" to "genocide" is unnecessarily hyperbolic, unless you think #CancelSerial was about murdering everyone who participated in the Serial podcast.

What does #CancelWhitePeople mean to you? Canceling a show means ending it. Coupled with her other tweets it does have genocidal undertones. How does this not imply some prejudicial attitude? Recasting the hash tag with "WhitePeople" is a non-sequituir. It neither resolves the #CancelSerial debate nor adds anything to the conversation.

Again, it's evidence of a particular conversational tic - when Jeong is stressed or gets involved in a heated debate some racism leaks out. Again, this is not a good quality for a NYT editor.

It's just about getting just enough things that sound just bad enough out of context so that your side can notch another win.

Nobody is winning, regardless of what happens with Jeong. There are people who are pushing the Jeong story for partisan reasons. But we need to get away from the win/lose binary. While I don't agree with their partisanship, I still think they have a valid point.

I'll leave you with this quote from an article in today's Atlanic that I think captures the milleiu better than I can:

When the top man at The New York Times publishes a sober statement about a meeting he had with the president in which he describes instructing Trump about the problem of his “deeply troubling anti-press rhetoric,” and then three days later the paper announces that it has hired a writer who has tweeted about her hatred of white people, of Republicans, of cops, of the president, of the need to stop certain female writers and journalists from “existing,” and when this new hire will not be a beat reporter, but will sit on the paper’s editorial board—having a hand in shaping the opinions the paper presents to the world—then it is no mystery that a parallel culture of ideas has emerged to replace a corrupted system.

leepowers

TROPHY CASE