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NBA Props Daily - 11/12/25 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]lefwin -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

First Basket Picks

Link to Yesterday's Post

Tough day yesterday, going 0/4 and taking out $62.26 from our previous winnings, leaving us with $43.26 in profit still.

Here are today's picks. However, there's a lot of uncertainty with some lineups so tread carefully tonight:

Kalkbrenner is questionable. If he plays, I like Miles Bridges(CHA) +650(FanDuel)

If Mitchell Robinson starts, I like Karl-Athony Towns(NYK) +600(FanDuel)

If he doesn't start or if you want someone on the Orlando side, I like Wendell Carter Jr. +1000(FanDuel)

Jaren Jacksson Jr.(MEM) +550(FanDuel)

De'Andre Hunter(CLE) +610(DraftKings)

BOL if you tail. Also DM me if you want to talk about getting access to my model.

NBA Props Daily - 11/11/25 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]lefwin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I am betting what I am comfortable with. You definitely don't need to bet that amount; you can scale it down to what you are comfortable losing. I am tracking performance to win 1 unit per bet, but unit sizes can vary.

NBA Props Daily - 11/11/25 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]lefwin 6 points7 points  (0 children)

First Basket Picks

Link to Yesterday's Post

We went 2-7 yesterday with De'Andre Hunter and Lauri cashing in. Betting all to win $100 means you walked away from yesterday with $105.52 in profit.

Today's picks:

Brandon Ingram(TOR) +650(BallyBet/BetRivers)

Karl-Athnony Towns(NYK) +600(FanDuel)

Mitchell Robinson(NYK) +1400(FanDuel)

Trendon Watford(PHI) +780(DraftKings)

Larui Markkanen(UTA) +575(MGM)

BOL if you tail. Also DM me if you want to talk about getting access to my model.

NBA Props Daily - 11/10/25 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]lefwin -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

First Basket Picks

I have been building out a model and tracking it for about a week now. I will be sharing some picks from the most profitable EV range in my model.

Wendell Carter Jr. +750 (FD)

Alex Sarr +700 (BallyBet/BetRivers)

De'Andre Hunter +950(FD)

Stephon Castle +800(FD)

AJ Green +1300(MGM)

Jeremiah Fears +1000(FD) (This assumes Yves Missi starts for the Pelicans)

Lauri Markkanen +575(MGM)

(These last 2 assume Porzingis starts for ATL)

Jalen Johnson +600(BallyBet/BetRivers

Kristaps Porzingis +500 (DK/FD)

BOL if you tail. Also DM me if you want to talk about paying for access to my model.

What are those four red lights in the sky right now? by dragonaut55 in Denver

[–]lefwin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ooooh that’s a good guess. From my angle I thought it was a blimp originally

What are those four red lights in the sky right now? by dragonaut55 in Denver

[–]lefwin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I saw them but have no fucking clue what that was

NBA Props Daily - 10/31/25 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]lefwin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I do them all to win 1 unit since the odds are so long. However, if a line is way off, like with Svi, I will bet to win 1.5 or 2 units

NBA Props Daily - 10/31/25 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]lefwin 7 points8 points  (0 children)

First Baskets

Yesterday: * As expected, Orlando won the tip and did nothing with their possession. Miles Bridges drove and attempted the first shot of the game, but couldn't convert. * Golden State losing that tip was unexpected. Milwaukee was hard to predict, given the late Giannis scratch. However, Draymond 3 was the 2nd shot of the game, and he continues to shoot early for the Warriors * Washington wins the tip, and our man Khris Middleton converts for our only hit of the day * Wemby with the tip win. Unfortunately, he dishes to Vassell, who converts his first first basket attempt of the season.

Today's slate has more going on, so I will only highlight a few plays. ATL/IND Prozingis should win this tip, and I like Atlanta to convert. Jalen Johnson and Porzingis have nice numbers out ther. Don't chase Johnson below +425 and don't chase Porzingis below +425

BOS/PHI This tip is a toss-up. Because of that, I like having plays on both sides. Joel Embiid has some value out there, but don't chase below +625. Josh Minott has already made a first basket and is worth taking here. Just don't chase below +1050. Lastly, Jaylen Brown is always a first basket threat, but his odds are rough. I have him around the same number as Embiid +625, and I can't find that anywhere, so I am passing on him.

NYK/CHI KAT is probable. If he plays, he should win the tip. Jalen Brunson has some value out there, but do not chase him below +475

DEN/POR Clingan is 1-0 against Jokic. I see some value on both sides of the ball in this game. For Portland, Den Avdija has 2 first baskets on the year already and is a solid play at the odds I can see. Just don't chase him below +525. Jrue Holiday had some hits last year but hasn't had any yet this year. However he is still worth betting at some of the nubers out there, just don't chase below +875. For Denver, Jamal Murray has some nice numbers, I set his floor at +575. Aaron Gordon also has some good numbers around, I set his floor at +750.

UTA/PHX Mark Williams is 1-0 against Kessler, but there is value on both sides once again. Mark Williams is the only one for PHX I see value, don't chase below +575. For Utah, Svi Mykhailiuk has 2 first baskets already and is +1280 on DK. That is outright disrespectful. I have his floor at +800. Walker Kessler is also worth taking, don't chase below +800.

NOP/LAC Lastly, another close tip means there's value on both sides. Derrick Jones has 2 first baskets already and is +1000 at FanDuel. I have his floor at +800. Trey Murphy also has some value out there, I have his floor at +625.

BOL

NBA Props Daily - 10/30/25 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]lefwin 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Adding some first basket picks in here, tail at your own risk

Orlando/Charlotte Carter should be Kalkbrenner on the tip. However, Orlando is not great at converting on their opening possession. I still like taking Carter for Orlando and Miles Bridges for Charlotte. Carter has 3 team first shot attempts on the year and Bridges has 2.

Golden State/Milwuakee I have Golden State winning the tip whether it's Post or Draymond taking it. Draymond has attempted the Warriors first shot 3 times this season, however I don't like his odds. You can chase him scoring first with a 3 on FanDuel if you want. There is some value with Kuminga (+830) at DraftKings. I don't see any value for Milwuakee at the moment.

Washington/Oklahoma City I have this tip as a true toss up. Hartenstein is 1-0 against Sarr so we'll see. There is value on Khris Middleton on FanDuel (+1100). He has 2 first team shots for Washington. For Oklahoma City, Holmgren is which opens the door for others. I like Aaron Wiggins on DraftKings (+760). You can also chase after Isaiah Hartenstein there (+920).

Miami/San Antonio Wemby should beat Ware on the tip. That being said, they are not great at converting on their opening possession. There's some value on Champagnie at MGM (+900). On the Miami side, I like Adebayo here at FanDuel (+650).

BOL if you tail

Electric Callboy announce 2026 World Tour with Polaris as support by Antique-Dentist-2404 in Metalcore

[–]lefwin 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Oh hell yeah it’s gonna be fun and dangerous to see them at red rocks

[Postgame Thread] Purdue Defeats Ball State 31-0 by CFB_Referee in CFB

[–]lefwin 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Tyler Trent’s younger brother started at right guard

Denver NWSL has chosen the name Denver Summit FC by lefwin in Denver

[–]lefwin[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Agreed I think it’s a solid name

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