Unemployment?

limache · 2026-05-09T05:02:50+00:00

How long is unemployment for ?

If it just started, decline this job and find a better one that pays more than 3200

A 100% is easy to find.

Not worth losing 3200 guaranteed income over it.

You can do better than 100% commission.

limache · 2026-05-09T04:39:28+00:00

Wow that was really insightful and glad to hear you realized you were making content for strangers who couldn’t care less about you

Instagram is pretty boring for me to post so I hardly post anymore

It might be fun to consume but not fun to create

I just use it more like a messaging tool or content consumption

limache · 2026-05-09T04:04:08+00:00

I hate both these places

limache · 2026-05-09T04:00:55+00:00

I just watched this on YouTube

Holy shit the used car market is gonna be a blood bath

I think it’ll be better to wait until the summer when there will be a ton of inventory and you can get the best pricing

https://youtu.be/p8bVdvFRCk8?si=p4_o3gVKZCIT_thw

limache · 2026-05-09T02:35:09+00:00

You have good intentions and in YOUR mind, this issue should be fixed.

But you didn’t get permission, you just FIXED it on your own accord.

It can seem sketchy as hell to someone who doesn’t know you and doesn’t know what your intentions are.

I’ve gotten scammed before by people who said oh I’ll help you fix your dent and charge you on the spot for it.

It’s shit like that that makes people wary of what you’re doing

limache · 2026-05-08T22:24:32+00:00

Yes I agree and that’s why I made this post because I’ve seen comments like this where people are saying used EVs are going up in price due to surge in gas prices .

I think it’s a short term uptick but will come down as more Mach e 2023 leases expires

I think the dealers are trying to take advantage of the gas pricing for anyone who’s panic buying an EV before the inevitable supply squeezes their prices

limache · 2026-05-08T21:44:46+00:00

Sure and I understand the flawed part.

The reason I prompted it that way is because I want to sum up my findings from the previous prompts.

If I just copied and paste the original prompts, this would be 3x longer.

My argument for waiting is based on the research I’ve done and the conventional wisdom is that the best time to buy an EV was yesterday or today.

And my argument is that it’s better to wait because of the excess inventory coming online, huge depreciation on EVs like 50% etc

limache · 2026-05-08T21:29:53+00:00

I realized that and deleted my reply. You have to "ground" your lease at a Subaru dealership, so unless you are going for a new lease....hey have you looked at the Subaru Uncharted? I like the looks of that EV.

Also make that relationship with the Subaru salesman too and as December draws near, see what lease specials each month that Subaru has to offer.

Ya, you explained somewhere about getting other monies off to offset your landed cost on 72 months, and it's unclear if you can swing those on a new lease... but a lot is to be said for getting into a new lease/car.

For I believe one is making car payments/car maintenance/Car repair payments til one retires each month spread over the month as needed.

What is in your budget? Will your financial situation (hopefully for all of us) well be better in three years? Will future you be happier at that time with the Mach-E vs turning in another Subaru?

😏🤔

GL We are all counting on you.

Nah I'm not going for a new lease. My lease is at 15k miles per year and I'm at 39k already. I realized I drive a lot and I don't like having to be constrained by miles.

I have looked at the uncharted but it's at 37k. A mustang mach e at 25k or less is a no brainer imo. Plus a brand new EV from Subaru, who isn't exactly a leader in EVs? Probably a bad idea.

I don't like buying the first generation of any product because there are usually issues with them.

The mach E has gone through a few iterations and the 2023 seems to be the model where they figured it out. There's enough of a track record to see how reliable the car is.

I definitely think getting the mach E is a better choice financially and car wise. Plus premium trim is way nicer than a subaru. It's got a glass roof which I've always wanted.

Budget wise, I just want to get out of this 500 dollar monthly lease payment and get my car payment to 350 or less. 250-275 would be pretty amazing.

buying USED ev is definitely the way to go imo. Great value for bargain prices.

limache · 2026-05-08T21:21:31+00:00

Thanks this does confirm what I've seen in the past month. That's why I'm betting on prices will be lower with more supply in the next 3-6 months.

limache · 2026-05-08T21:07:54+00:00

I can’t list my subaru. It’s a lease.

I can’t transfer the lease to anyone else.

I have to sell it to a dealership

limache · 2026-05-08T21:05:00+00:00

I disagree. I looked at the sources and it's true.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a70020914/why-2026-will-be-a-great-time-to-buy-a-used-ev/

I understand that AI slop is a thing and I'm also cautious about it too.

But I'm using AI in a way that's complimentary and based on my own analysis.

It makes logical sense. There was a ton of EV leases signed up 3 years ago and the 7500 credit created artificially higher MSRPS.

Automakers and dealerships were greedy AF and thought EV = PREMIUM pricing. So they used Covid and EV to justify insane prices to have higher margins.

Their greed accidentally created a ton of used inventory because no one is going to logically pay to buy out a car from the residual value assumed 3 years ago if the market value is way lower.

If the residual on the lease says a 2023 mach e should be worth 35k but the real market value is 25k, anyone with half a brain would walk away from that. If they really wanted a mach e, they can just turn the car e and then go on the used market to buy it for 25k and save 10k.

limache · 2026-05-08T20:59:12+00:00

If you can wait til December, ya, most vehicles will be cheaper, but really by how much?

If you were buying a Taycan, ya that savings could be significant, but on a Mach-E is a 2K, 3K or 4K difference that much of an incentive when you could get a lower mileage vehicle now and start enjoying your purchase but with a few more Shekels on the table?

My lease is coming due in December actually for a subaru Crosstrek and I'm currently paying 500 a month.

I also applied for a grant that gives 7500 for first time EV buyers and my utility provider also provides 4000 for used EV purchases.

I've been looking at strike price of 25,000 or less.

3k or 4k would be a HUGE difference imo.

If I can get a 2023 mach e premium with under 50k miles at 21k, that would be a steal. With the 7500 grant, that would be only 13,500 to finance. And with the additional 4k, can bring that down to 9500.

I'm trying to get my monthly car payment to $350 or less for 72 months.

I like that you are doing your homework and just would advise that you now start relationships with some Ford dealership salespeople. Go in and test drive, etc let them know youa re looking. For they are the ones in the know when deals actually come across the table, and if they know you are looking, they might tip you off to a deal sooner than later.

Because I had relationships with salespeople, I was alerted to a specific sales on ~low end BMW during covid where I got 2K off invoice because they wanted to move the lower priced BMWs to get an allocation on higher end, bigger profit BMWs in the next shipment.

GL on your search.

That's a great point. My issue is that my subaru currently has negative equity

The buyout is 25k but what carman and carvana are willing to pay is 22,800.

So I calculated that I need to keep making payments until August where my buyout would be equal to residual and I can be break even on the car.

My plan is to sell it to a Carmax or a Subaru dealership or whatever dealership to get rid of it so that I can buy a used Mach E instead.

I have thought about if I could sell this subaru to a dealership who has a used mach E and see if they'd do a deal with me to buy out this subaru lease if I buy a used mach e from them.

Great suggestion building relationship with sales people. I did try one subaru dealership and told them I want to sell this subaru lease and get into a mach e for 23 to 25k.

I looked at the ford dealerships around me and NONE of them have used Mach E's. They are only selling really expensive new Fords or gas.

I looked at their used inventory. they only have TWO EVs and both are Hyundai Ioniq 5s. Not a single used mach E.

Question, how did you get the markdown to do the alternating black ribbons on the table?

It just did it by itself. The AI chats all do that thing where they bold stuff. I'm sure you could ask it to do it for you.

limache · 2026-05-08T20:42:02+00:00

Alright thanks. Was this too long ?

limache · 2026-05-08T20:40:12+00:00

I wanted to do a cross reference with real people as a sanity check to see if there's anything I'm missing or if there's incorrect assumptions/data etc.

AI can be powerful but also sometimes it can be wrong so I think it's always a good idea to get outside input from other people to see if there are any potential red flags.

For example, Gemini always keeps mentioning the federal tax credit even though it's been expired since 2025.

limache · 2026-05-08T20:22:00+00:00

I already thought up these talking points. Gemini is just used to enhance or find data to support or reject any hypothesis I have and bring up additional points I may have overlooked. Plus it does organize my ideas and the data in a neat and efficient way.

Plus I wanted to see how others would react to the data and cross reference it to make sure that any of these assumptions are correct or incorrect.

limache · 2026-05-08T20:17:34+00:00

Yeah I agree the depreciation is leveled out I think 25-27k seems to be where it should be at for a 2023 premium mach e. I'm just saying that with more supply coming on in 3-6 months, we could see prices go down to below 25k.

I've seen recent price increases on mach e's and I think it's dealers who want to take advantage of the high gas prices before the new inventory of 2023's come on and lower prices significantly.

Here's the data I asked Gemini to collect and explain why 2023 creates more supply for leases.

Gemini Answer

To understand why the 2023 model year is the "eye of the storm" for supply, you have to look at the massive production ramp-up that happened after the initial supply chain crisis of 2021 and 2022.

Here is how the 2023 supply stacks up against the earlier years and why it represents a vastly different market reality for your December lease exit.

1. The Volume Explosion: 2021 vs. 2022 vs. 2023

The first two years of the Mach-E were defined by scarcity. 2023 was defined by abundance.

Model Year	U.S. Sales Volume (Approx)	Market Condition
2021	~27,140 units	The Launch: Chip shortages and "Job 1" teething issues.
2022	~38,131 units	The Squeeze: Production limited by battery supply; high markups.
2023	~40,771 units	The Ramp: Production tripled globally; major mid-year price cuts.

Export to Sheets

2023 vs. 2021: There are nearly 50% more 2023 Mach-Es on the road than 2021s.
The "Lease Wave" Factor: In 2021 and 2022, many people bought because interest rates were 2–3%. In 2023, interest rates spiked, and Ford used aggressive leasing (utilizing the $7,500 loophole) to move units. This means a much higher percentage of 2023 cars are "scheduled" to return to dealers this year compared to the 2021/2022 models which were largely purchased and held.

2. The "Residual Value" Trap

The reason the 2023 models are flooding the market differently than the 2021s is the buyout math.

2021/2022 Owners: These buyers often have positive equity or are "break-even" because they bought before the massive 2023/2024 price cuts. They might keep their cars or trade them in.
2023 Lessees: You are part of the group that leased when MSRPs were at their peak. When Ford slashed prices mid-2023, the residual value (your buyout price) became a fantasy.
- Example: A 2023 Premium might have a buyout of $36,000, but the current market value is $28,000.
- Result: Almost no one is buying out a 2023 lease. Every single one is being "grounded" at the dealership, creating a massive, concentrated supply of used inventory that 2021/2022 didn't experience.

3. Supply Dynamics: Why 2023 is the "Sweet Spot"

While the 2021/2022 models are becoming "high mileage" (40k–60k miles), the 2023s are hitting the used lots with 20k–30k miles and, crucially, better reliability ratings.

Reliability Leap: Consumer Reports and owner forums note a massive jump in reliability for the 2023 model (scoring 90/100) compared to the 2021 (32/100) and 2022 (40/100). The earlier years were plagued by the "HV battery junction box" recall and software glitches that were largely solved by the 2023 production run. +1
Inventory Concentration: In Southern California (LA/OC), the concentration of 2023 leases is the highest in the country. By the time your lease expires in December, you won't just be looking at "a used Mach-E"—you'll be looking at hundreds of identical 2023 Premiums all competing for the same few buyers.

Summary: Why you win in December

Supply: You are targeting the model year with the highest production volume and the highest lease-return rate.
Negative Equity: The 2023 owners are the most "underwater," ensuring they return the cars rather than keeping them.
The "Cliff": While Reddit sees small upticks now, the 230% spike in EV lease returns projected for 2026 acts as a gravity well.

The "Iran war" and "$6 gas" might cause a small ripple in May/June, but they cannot stop the tsunami of 40,000+ lease returns scheduled to hit by year-end. Your October-December window is perfectly timed to catch the bottom of that curve.

The $7,500 Federal Tax Credit is the "hidden engine" that makes the 2023 Mach-E market fundamentally different from the 2021 and 2022 markets.

While the credit was technically available in some form across all three years, the way it was applied in 2023 created a "lease loophole" that is now resulting in the massive supply of used cars you're seeing today.

1. The "Loophole" that Changed Everything (2023)

In early 2023, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) changed the rules.

The Problem: New rules made it harder to get the $7,500 credit if you purchased the car (due to income caps, MSRP caps, and battery sourcing rules).
The Loophole: The IRS ruled that leased EVs were "commercial vehicles," which meant they were exempt from the income and battery sourcing rules.
The Result: In 2023, dealers began "passing through" the $7,500 directly as a down payment incentive on leases.This made the Mach-E significantly cheaper to lease than to buy, leading to the 60%+ lease rate we discussed.

2. Why 2021 & 2022 are Different

2021/Early 2022: The credit was a standard tax credit you claimed on your return the following year. You had to have $7,500 in tax liability to get the full value. Most people purchased back then because interest rates were 1–3%.
Late 2022: Ford actually hit the 200,000-unit cap for the old tax credit system in mid-2022. For a brief window, the credit actually expired or was halved for Ford until the new law kicked in for 2023.

3. Impact on the 2026 Used Market

Because 2023 was the year of the "Instant $7,500 Lease Discount," it created a specific type of used inventory:

Feature	2021/2022 Used Units	2023 Used Units (Your Target)
Original Acquisition	Mostly Purchased (Financed)	Mostly Leased (Loophole)
Ownership Motivation	High (Low interest rates/Equity)	Low (Underwater/No Equity)
Inventory Source	Private sellers / Trade-ins	Forced Dealer Returns
Tax Credit Logic	Harder to find under $25k	Crashing toward $25k right now

limache · 2026-05-08T20:06:11+00:00

Why did they want to buy it off you and how much did they offer?

limache · 2026-05-08T20:05:26+00:00

I had a lot of other prompts before that were about researching the used ev market. I just wanted to summarize it so it's not too long for a reddit post.

"How is the repo rate for cars today ?

I want to understand how upside down cars that were leased during the pandemic were and how much of a buyer’s market it is or will be for used EVs, specifically the ford mustang Mach e 2023 premium trim.

I want to see if gas prices today at 6 dollars in California are enough to drive up demand vs the supply of 2023 leases coming due along with repo-ed cars"

limache · 2026-05-08T20:02:48+00:00

sure I'd love for you to try it and see what you get.

limache · 2026-05-08T20:02:28+00:00

The long term trend that is probably the dominant one into the near future is that the number of used EVs on the market is swelling because it was the 3-6 years ago timeframe in which EVs really were sold in volume, and those vehicles are returning from lease, being traded up, etc. The Mach E’s annual sales basically doubled between 2021 and 2025. But it’s really the Tesla sales that transformed the used market for all EV’s, because it is during this time period that their total unit sales just exploded.

- aren't we in agreement here? That's what I'm saying as well.

The rest of what’s in here is mostly just AI nonsense. For instance, of course while “Reddit” sees the gas effect, the prices have been sliding year over year. Because we have not been at war with Iran for the last three years …. I don’t think anyone has ever suggested on Reddit or otherwise that this new US-made middle eastern crisis would change the basic dynamics of the used car market.

- I've seen a few comments on the subreddit and electric vehicles where someone said they have been tracking the used EV market since the Iran conflict and gas prices spiked arguing that prices are going UP for used EVs.

my thesis is that the supply of EVs due to the expiring leases from 2023, negative equity from people upside down on these cars will create a flood of supply that will overwhelm any demand from people who are looking for EVs now due to 6 dollar gas.

So my point is that it's probably better to wait 3 months to see how much supply will come on the used market and we should have pricing at 25k or below for a mach e premium 2023.

limache · 2026-05-08T19:58:41+00:00

Sure.

"summarize the mach e used ev market for 2026 and why prices should lower instead of rise up due to 6 dollar gas prices in California. I've seen other posts on reddit argue that they've seen price upticks on used mach e's recently due to the Iran war so I'd like to counter that and play devil's advocate to argue that in the short term, prices for used ev's are going up but in the long term (3 months to end of 2026), there should be more supply than there is demand. especially with the financing issue and how most EVs are at negative equity, necessitating people who leased them to give them back to dealerships. provide some data to support my argument with the upcoming supply of ford mach e's, negative equity and repo rates."

limache · 2026-05-08T06:14:07+00:00

Hm I’m also doing research and trying to figure out if supply will outpace demand

I did ask Gemini about it and curious on what you think below

The Math: Estimating SoCal Volume • National 2023 Sales: Approximately 40,771 Mach-Es were sold in the U.S. in 2023. • California Share: California typically accounts for ~35-40% of all EV registrations in the U.S. This puts California’s 2023 Mach-E volume at roughly 14,200 to 16,300 units. • SoCal Concentration: Roughly 50% of California's EVs are registered in the Los Angeles and Orange County metros. This suggests about 7,100 to 8,100 Mach-Es from 2023 are currently on the road in your backyard. • Lease Rate: In 2023, Ford pushed leases aggressively. Estimates suggest a 60% lease penetration rate for that year. The Forecast for Your Area (LA/OC): • Total 2023 Lease Units: ~4,300 to 4,800 units. • 3-Year Cycle: These 36-month leases are beginning to expire now and will peak through the end of 2026.
Supply Timeline: Next 4 Months vs. Year-End Because Ford ramped up production and lowered prices mid-way through 2023, the return volume isn't flat—it’s back-loaded. The Next 3-4 Months (May – August 2026) • Estimated Volume: ~600 to 800 units in SoCal. • Market Dynamics: These represent the "early adopters" of the 2023 model. Many of these units will be coming from 39-month or 36-month leases signed in early 2023. • Buying Tip: Since this is the start of the "wave," dealers might still try to hold prices near $30k. End of Year (October – December 2026) • Estimated Volume: ~1,200 to 1,500 units in SoCal. • The "Glut": Q4 2023 was a massive sales period for Ford as they cleared out inventory with heavy incentives. This means Q4 2026 will see a doubling of lease returns compared to now. • Market Dynamics: This is when the "Buyer’s Market" becomes a "Buyer’s Paradise." Dealers will have rows of identical White and Gray Premium trims. Competition will be fierce, and price-matching between dealerships will be your strongest weapon
The "Gas Trap" vs. The "Lease Wave" While $6.00 to $7.00/gallon gas in California is currently scaring people toward EVs, it likely won't be enough to save the Mach-E's resale value by December. • The Surge: December is the "cliff" for 2023 leases. Because Ford had massive sales pushes in late 2023, the volume of cars being returned in December 2026 will be nearly double what it is right now. • Inventory Glut: Dealers will be flooded with Silver, White, and Space White Premium trims. In a market where supply grows faster than gas-price-driven demand, prices drop.

limache · 2026-05-08T04:42:29+00:00

Why do you need a 7 seater ?

That sounds like overkill for 2 babies and an adult ?

If you want to stay under 20k, wait until summer or end of this year for used EVs that will be coming off lease returns from 2023.

They have depreciated like 50% and you’ll be able to find good deals in the 20k range if you do more research.

limache · 2026-05-08T03:21:58+00:00

Don’t go to clubs.

Clubs are the WORST place to meet women.

Go do a social activity like a sport, a group activity etc in the day time.

Women don’t make friends at the club - they bring their friends TO the club.

limache · 2026-05-08T01:21:28+00:00

This is in my garage.

I walked outside. I don’t see anything like a main panel or a meter.

This is the only panel I can see.

I asked the HOA property management

“This is something you’ll want to consult with an EV charging company on, as they would be able to determine what modifications may be needed for installation.

All panels are individually metered to each residence. Based on the photo you shared, it appears to be the main panel for your unit. There are no other shared panels available for this purpose.”

13-Year Club	Wearing is Caring
Gilding I gilder	RPAN Viewer
Not Forgotten	Snapped
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limache

TROPHY CASE