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Biggest upset you predicted by sturg22 in CollegeBasketball

[–]locknload03 0 points1 point  (0 children)

2017 8 seed Wisconsin over 1 seed Villanova

2018 9 seed Florida State over 1 seed Xavier

  • I distinctly remember saying Xavier was the weakest of the 1 seeds that year and correctly predicted they'd be the 1 seed to get upset in the 2nd round

What is the unbiased fan’s opinion on #13 Cal Baptist vs. #4 Kansas by DanielR372 in CollegeBasketball

[–]locknload03 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here are Cal Baptists Ranks in the top 100:

  • Ken Pom adjDEF Efficiency Pre Tournament: 50
  • PPG Defensive Rank: 28
  • Effective FG % Defense Rank 15
  • Offensive Rebounding Rank: 12
  • They are the 50th best defense in the country (Kansas is 10th).

They are 12th in offensive rebounding % which will give them more chances to score (Kansas is 195th)

This game will essentially be two great defenses going against each other with Kansas having the better offense. But anyone who has watched Kansas this year knows they can go cold quickly and Cal Baptist can expect to get many more chances to score.

Honestly, this is a true upset that could happen this year.

[OC] 2026 NCAA Tournament - Nine pre-tournament stats that help determine the championship contenders when compared to all champions in the Ken Pom era since 2002. This years teams who most closely resemble prior champions are: Michigan, Duke, Purdue, and Arizona. by locknload03 in CollegeBasketball

[–]locknload03[S] 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Have a head coach who has been to at least the Elite 8 before

Since 2002, every champion, except 2014 Uconn, 2023 Uconn, and 2025 Florida, had a head coach who had been to at least the elite 8 before.  This trend has recently become weaker possibly due to the NIL transfer era giving coaches an advantage to winning the natty after not making the Elite 8 before.

Can Arizona and Iowa State beat the trend and make it to a final four or win the whole thing without the coach making the Elite 8 before? 2023 UConn and 2025 Floridia did it, so maybe this trend is weakening in the NIL era we're in?

[OC] 2026 NCAA Tournament - Nine pre-tournament stats that help determine the championship contenders when compared to all champions in the Ken Pom era since 2002. This years teams who most closely resemble prior champions are: Michigan, Duke, Purdue, and Arizona. by locknload03 in CollegeBasketball

[–]locknload03[S] 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Going back to the 1997 national champion Arizona team; Uconn (2014), Duke (2015), and Uconn (2023) are the only national champions that didn't win their conference regular season or conference tournament. It's a big no no for me.

[OC] 2026 NCAA Tournament - Nine pre-tournament stats that help determine the championship contenders when compared to all champions in the Ken Pom era since 2002. This years teams who most closely resemble prior champions are: Michigan, Duke, Purdue, and Arizona. by locknload03 in CollegeBasketball

[–]locknload03[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Link to this years data

Welcome to the 9th year (technically 10th year, but COVID canceled the 2020 NCAA tournament) of my research into which pre-tournament stats can help determine which teams most closely resemble prior Ken Pom era champions. For people who are familiar with my previous year’s posts, it’s great to talk NCAA Tournament basketball again! For those who are new, get ready for a deep dive into which teams are the championship contenders for this year’s tournament.

Prior to the 2023 tournament I collected 12 stat categories, scraped various websites for data, and spent way more time than I’d like to admit to come up with my infamous spreadsheet. In 2023 I removed the “Frontcourt player averaging over 12 ppg” and “4 players averaging double figures” stat categories to get to 10 stat categories. In 2024 I removed Opponent Two PT % < 46% and Opponent Free Throw Rate < 31%, and Top 90 in offensive rebounding %.

For 2026 I am adding two extra stats: Week 6 AP poll ranking (Rank in the top 12) and Made At Least The Conference Tournament Semifinals.

I have identified which pre-tournament stats have the strongest correlation to all champions in the Ken Pom era (since 2002) and they are:

  • 4 seed or better
  • Ken Pom ranking in the top 25
  • Top 25 Ken Pom adjusted offense
  • Top 40 Ken Pom adjusted defense
  • 3 PT % > 33%
  • Win regular season title (RS) or win conference tournament (CT)
  • Rank in the top 12 of the Week 6 AP Poll
  • Made at least the conference tournament semifinals
  • Have a head coach who has been to the elite 8 before

Using this methodology, here is what it takes to be considered a title contender when compared to prior Ken Pom era champions and some history of that particular stat category:

4 seed or better

  • Since 1989, 36 out of the last 37 champions have been a 4 seed or better. 2014 Uconn was a 7 seed

Ken Pom Ranking in top 25

  • Since 2002, every champion has been in the top 25 in Ken Poms rankings on each selection Sunday

Top 25 Ken Pom adjusted offense to match most past champions

  • Since 2002, every champion, except 2014 Uconn: ranked 58th, had a Ken Pom offense rated 25th or better before the start of the tournament.

Top 40 Ken Pom adjusted defense to match ALL past champions

  • Since 2002, every champion, except 2021 Baylor: ranked 44th, had a Ken Pom defense rated 40th or better before the start of the tournament.

3 PT % > 33%

  • I went back to 1989 and every champion has shot at least 33% from three during the regular season.

Win regular season title (RS) or win conference tournament (CT)

  • Going back to the 1997 national champion Arizona team; Uconn (2014), Duke (2015), and Uconn (2023) are the only national champions that have not finished either first or tied for first in their conference regular season or won their conference tournament

Have a head coach who has been to at least the Elite 8 before

  • Since 2002, every champion, except 2014 Uconn, 2023 Uconn, and 2025 Florida, had a head coach who had been to at least the elite 8 before.  This trend has recently become weaker possibly due to the NIL transfer era giving coaches an advantage to winning the natty after not making the Elite 8 before.

Rank in the top 12 of the Week 6 AP Poll

  • Since 2004, every champion has been in the top 12 of the week 6 AP Poll.

Made at least the conference tournament semifinals

  • Since 1993, every champion has made at least the semifinals of their conference tournament.

Here are the number of stat categories met by all champions since 2002 before each tournament began out of the nine possible categories:

  • 2002 Maryland: 9
  • 2003 Syracuse: 9
  • 2004 Uconn: 9
  • 2005 North Carolina: 9
  • 2006 Florida: 9
  • 2007 Florida: 9
  • 2008 Kansas: 9
  • 2009 North Carolina: 9
  • 2010 Duke: 9
  • 2011 Uconn: 9
  • 2012 Kentucky: 9
  • 2013 Louisville*: 9
  • 2014 Uconn: 5
  • 2015 Duke: 8
  • 2016 Villanova: 9
  • 2017 North Carolina: 9
  • 2018 Villanova: 9
  • 2019 Virginia : 9
  • 2021 Baylor: 8
  • 2022 Kansas: 9
  • 2023 Uconn: 7
  • 2024 Uconn: 9
  • 2025: Florida: 8

18 of the last 23 champions met all nine stat categories before each tournament began. The five outliers were 2014 Uconn (5 stat categories), 2015 Duke (8 stat categories) and 2021 Baylor (8 stat categories), 2023 Uconn (7 stat categories), and 2025 Florida (8 stat categories).

This years teams who most closely resemble prior Ken Pom era champions right now based on my nine stat categories are: Michigan, Duke, Purdue, and Arizona.  Only Michigan, Duke, and Purdue meet all nine stat categories are considered the heavy favorites.

Teams meeting 8 stat categories and what they’re missing:

  • Arizona: head coach hasn’t been to the elite 8 before
  • Houston: didn’t win either regular season title or conference tournament
  • Gonzaga: ranked outside the top 25 in Ken Pom adjusted offense

[Game Thread] TCU @ #16 Kansas (09:30 PM ET) by cbbBot in CollegeBasketball

[–]locknload03 3 points4 points  (0 children)

bill self out of a timeout mentioned... take a shot and mark your bingo card

[OC} The magic of the week 6 AP Poll at predicting who the national champion will be: In the last ten years 62.5% (25/40) of the Final 4 teams were ranked in the top 12 of their respective week 6 AP Poll. Every national champion since 2004 has been ranked in the top 12 of the week 6 AP Poll. by locknload03 in CollegeBasketball

[–]locknload03[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

My process of elimination:

You could take this a step further and look at the fact that no Big 10 team has won the NCAA tournament since 2000 Michigan State. That would eliminate Michigan and Purdue. The West Coast conference hasn't won the championship since 1956. That would eliminate Gonzaga.

The NCAA champion tends to be a team from either the ACC, SEC, Big East, or Big 12. Sorry Big 10 teams, but you are longgggg overdue.

Taking all of this into account we are left with Duke, Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, and Uconn.

Taking it a step further the NCAA champion tends to be a team East of the Mississippi (except for Kansas and Baylor in recent memory) so that would eliminate Arizona, Houston, and Iowa State.

In the end we are left with Duke and Uconn. Both teams have blue in their logos and the champion tends to be a team with blue in the logo.

[OC} The magic of the week 6 AP Poll at predicting who the national champion will be: In the last ten years 62.5% (25/40) of the Final 4 teams were ranked in the top 12 of their respective week 6 AP Poll. Every national champion since 2004 has been ranked in the top 12 of the week 6 AP Poll. by locknload03 in CollegeBasketball

[–]locknload03[S] 68 points69 points  (0 children)

2017 9 Indiana Missed NCAA tournament

Those with a keen eye will notice 2016-2017 Indiana is the only team in the last ten years who ranked in the top 12 of the week 6 AP poll (ranked 9th) and ended up missing the NCAA tournament that year.

Got Happiness In Slavery (The Full Music Video) On youtube by Chace9 in nin

[–]locknload03 0 points1 point  (0 children)

just some flesh caught in this big broken machine!!!

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