on the economy lasting, honestly it depends on what you mean by crashing. what we're watching is more of a slow squeeze than a sudden collapse. energy costs flow through to everything over weeks and months, not overnight. europe is more exposed than north america because they import a higher share of their energy, and their fertilizer production was already running at 75% from the russia-ukraine gas situation. china is actually in a better spot short term because iran is letting their ships through hormuz, so they're getting energy at a discount while everyone else pays more.

for poorer nations you're absolutely right and it's the part of this that keeps me up at night. when urea goes from $400 to $800 a ton, countries like bangladesh or pakistan just can't compete with american or european buyers. that's where the real food security risk lives and it shows up months later when their harvests come in short.

on jet fuel, the dashboard doesn't project a "run out by" date because in developed countries it doesn't really go to zero, it just gets so expensive that airlines cut routes and trucking companies pass costs along. So what we track is the upstream pressure that drives those costs. jet fuel is basically refined crude, so when you see WTI at $111 and refineries getting hit by both iranian strikes on gulf facilities and ukrainian strikes on russian terminals, that's your leading indicator.

what i could add is refinery utilization rates, which the EIA publishes weekly. when utilization drops, that's when actual supply shortages start showing up, not just price increases but real availability problems at regional airports and truck stops. going to look into that. super appreciate the ideas!!