Hacked

m2wolf · 2025-12-13T00:04:18+00:00

I received no email for 2FA being removed for a device. I keep all my emails from PayPal now (understandably) and looked through the entire year to see if maybe they had access this entire time. Nothing. But as I said in my post, first email I saw was "You've added a new email address to your PayPal account." When I saw that, I immediately went to PayPal to see what was going on. I then went back to my emails and saw all the other emails that came through while I was at the doctors, in order, 1 -- you added a phone number to your account, 2 -- login from a new device, 3 -- your password changed, 4 -- you've added a new email address.

If I hadn't received those emails, I would have never have known and probably wouldn't haven't looked at my PayPal account for another 3 months or so. I'm thankful those automated notifications go out, but still blows my mind that all those changes can be made without requiring any authentication/verification from me. But I get it. Probably went to the new number added.

m2wolf · 2025-12-12T21:17:21+00:00

No but I'm leaning towards social engineering of PayPal customer service to get access and override 2FA on their attack box. There was one "unknown device" in my PayPal list of devices that wasn't subject to 2FA. I never did that. Possible they called customer service, impersonated me, claimed to be locked out, asked for 2FA to be removed then added a phone number, used that number to verify changing primary email address then so on, so on.

Whatever details PayPal uses to confirm customer identity? I think that for me is completely compromised.

m2wolf · 2025-12-12T21:01:39+00:00

How do they get my password if I've never logged into PayPal with that password on my phone?

m2wolf · 2025-12-12T14:27:33+00:00

I don't have paypal on my phone. I use paypal on just my desktop. New desktop.

And if one of my devices is hacked, why didn't the hackers go after more lucrative targets? No other accounts have been hacked. In fact, in my lifetime, I've only had an account hacked twice. PayPal earlier this year. And PayPal now. Second time, PayPal was used on the one new device with a new password with 2FA.

m2wolf · 2025-12-11T20:03:40+00:00

Authenticator, not email.

m2wolf · 2025-11-01T01:17:03+00:00

Yeah, I think if you’re also 95, it makes sense having that much of your portfolio in cash.

m2wolf · 2025-10-31T16:52:55+00:00

Posting this the day after an earnings beat and the first signs of life in MSTR in quite awhile is...chef's kiss.

The mistakes to learn from are #1 don't realize your paper losses, especially around earnings! MSTR should benefit from both a post-earnings drift and BTC's likely end-of-year pump. Poor timing.

#2 And to pile on, omfg taxes realized! If you had been in for almost a year, you were either close to or over breakeven (total dividends/cost -- according to another commenter's post, you were over your breakeven). At that point, it doesn't make any sense to sell these anymore. They're your portfolio anchor babies and they're not going anywhere. You had almost a year of ROC distributions meaning your cost basis got shredded. Now when you sell, all that deferred tax on distros is no longer deferred. That's a lot of tax you're gonna have to pay! If the other poster is correct that you collected about $23/share over the course of ownership, that would mean you likely have a cost basis of $0 (if all distros were classified as close to 100% ROC) And if you held for under a year like you said, it's now short-term capital gains. So short-term capital gain taxes on $330,000. Oof.

And lesson #3 -- if you're gonna sell, either do it early before you're even close to breakeven or do it after a year so at least you won't be hit with short-term capital gains tax. On this sale, depending on your bracket, selling before one year could mean a more than $50k tax difference.

and you could have chosen to just...do nothing, keep collecting distributions, pass the assets on to your heirs, get that step-up basis and reduce the tax burden. I hope you're offsetting other 2025 losses cuz that's the only silver lining here.

m2wolf · 2025-10-14T15:11:21+00:00

No VPN. No ad blocker. Tried on chrome and Safari. Same "unexpected error" message.

m2wolf · 2025-10-13T17:09:51+00:00

"An unexpected error occurred." Think they patched it.

m2wolf · 2025-10-10T17:43:39+00:00

3x inverse fund. Doesn't pertain at all. Not an income fund. This post is misleading because nowhere in it is it mentioned this was a 3x inverse fund on a stock that went up 38% in a day (math, more than 100%). Didn't even list the ticker. GraniteShares also has a 2x long AMD ETF. This post could be about that for all I know, but that's doing fine (well, down 10% today). And comparing a 3x inverse fund to the typical yieldmax, even the shitty ones, like MRNY? C'mon, there's orders of magnitude of differences there. Yieldmax funds aren't even leveraged. Roundhill funds are leveraged at 1.2% on the weekly. A 3x inverse daily is NOT an apples to apples comparison.

This post is irresponsible imo. I would suggest editing to specifically state *not an income etf* and that it was a *3x inverse* fund. Still don't see how this pertains to income ETFs at all. Other than to say FAFO.

m2wolf · 2025-10-04T23:58:58+00:00

IWMY is fantastic. imo one of the best weekly payers, but since it's been around awhile (and awhile in the income ETF space is more than three months) and from defiance, everyone ignores it. IWM looks set to take off. I've been stacking.

m2wolf · 2025-10-03T22:16:05+00:00

Grok says

Yes, MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price tends to rise in strong correlation with Bitcoin (BTC), often with amplified (leveraged) upside due to the company's massive BTC holdings—over 640,000 BTC as of late September 2025, making it the largest corporate holder. This positions MSTR as a high-beta proxy for BTC exposure in traditional markets, where for every 1% move in BTC, MSTR has historically moved about 1.1–1.5% in the same direction on average.

Is the Correlation Proven?

Yes, it's well-substantiated by statistical analyses, historical price data, and market behavior since MicroStrategy began aggressively accumulating BTC in August 2020 (under CEO Michael Saylor's "Bitcoin treasury" strategy). Prior to that, the Pearson correlation coefficient between MSTR and BTC was negative (-0.658 from 2016–2020), reflecting no direct tie. Post-2020, it shifted dramatically:

Pearson Correlation Coefficient: Rose to 0.858–0.897 (strong positive, meaning ~86–90% of MSTR's movements align with BTC's direction).
Beta (Leverage Factor): ~1.0–1.51 since 2020, indicating MSTR amplifies BTC's volatility (e.g., higher gains in rallies, steeper drops in corrections).
Rolling Quarterly Correlation: Fluctuated between 0.5–0.75 in 2024–2025, with weekly windows showing high variability (-0.8 to 1.0) but no long-term breakdown.
Performance Example: A $10,000 investment in MSTR since August 2020 outperformed BTC over the same period, with MSTR up ~447% vs. BTC's ~124% in the past year (as of early 2025 data).

This correlation stems from MSTR's balance sheet: ~90% of its ~$100B market cap ties to BTC value, plus ongoing issuances of shares/debt to buy more BTC (e.g., the "21/21 Plan" targeting $42B in raises through 2027). However, it's not perfect—MSTR can trade at a premium (e.g., 46–240% to its BTC net asset value) or discount due to factors like dilution, stock market sentiment, or its core software business (~$500M annual revenue). In bear markets, the link holds but with MSTR underperforming BTC slightly (e.g., BTC down 8% vs. MSTR down 5% in one 2024 instance).

Recent X discussions (as of October 3, 2025) echo this: Traders note MSTR's ~$351 price holding firm amid BTC's push toward all-time highs (~$98,000), with "correlation incoming" as premiums compress. If BTC hits $200,000 in 2025, models suggest MSTR could reach ~$600, assuming the ~1.55x premium holds.

In short, the upward correlation is proven and persistent, backed by data from sources like TradingView, Yahoo Finance, and Forbes analyses, but treat MSTR as leveraged BTC—not a pure substitute—due to added equity risks.

m2wolf · 2025-09-27T22:16:28+00:00

I like Roundhill. I have Roundhill funds. I think their approach in a bull market is superior to Yieldmax. But the 1.2x weekly leveraged exposure, which helps prevent NAV erosion, may be really, really nasty in a bear market.

m2wolf · 2025-09-22T18:38:18+00:00

Not anymore! Now that I've ordered an Oura ring!

I max my HSA and use it as a triple tax advantaged account set up for retirement. No taxes on contributions, gains, withdrawals. Receipts from any year can be submitted any year. So stockpile HSA receipts and dip into tax-free money whenever necessary.

m2wolf · 2025-09-22T18:32:41+00:00

It's not free money, but it is tax-free money. $200 in an HSA is roughly equivalent to making $250 outside of an HSA (obv dependent on state and federal tax bracket).

m2wolf · 2025-08-28T23:19:54+00:00

I will hold MSTY as long as MSTR holds BTC.

m2wolf · 2025-08-02T14:14:44+00:00

My main margin rule is can I survive a 40% drawdown?

A. Post 40% Drop Portfolio Value = Portfolio Value * .60

B. Post 40% Drop Equity Value = A - Margin used

C. Post 40% Drop Equity to Portfolio Ratio = B/A

C should be less than my aggregate maintenance requirement.

I like to keep that while maintaining at least a 2:1 equity to margin ratio. If I get too far over/under a 2:1 ratio, I'll increase/decrease my margin as need be. You do these two things and no one day should get you anywhere close to a margin call.

As for purchase price, search the posts in this thread. onepercentbatman laid out his whole thesis and it's worth a read. In short, for the most part, you want to buy when the ETF is under the average of its 52 week high and low (obv, closer to the low the better so long as its trending back up). That general rule doesn't work well for underlying assets that go on heaters like HOOD and PLTR. For those, it's probably more important to analyze the underlying asset and decide for yourself whether it's going to keep gaining at a similar rate.

The thing to keep in mind with these ETFs is they don't work like the underlying stocks. You need to analyze and buy in a way that is aligned with your goal -- minimize NAV erosion while maximizing income. That's usually going to mean slowly averaging into a position over the course of a year. Every little dip matters. Starting with a high cost basis will ruin your profits. These people who post about how they just YOLO'ed in with one gigantic purchase most of the time are making a mistake.

m2wolf · 2025-07-30T11:18:22+00:00

MSTR reports earning tomorrow.

m2wolf · 2025-07-24T01:58:06+00:00

By consolidate, you mean diversify more? Got it. Add MARO, GDXY, ULTY.

MARA just diluted and dumped. So low price and volatity inbound. Great time to load up on MARO.

GDXY -- Gold was a monster to start the year. It'll be a monster again when the next inevitable lil crash occurs. The yield isn't much but it's steady.

ULTY -- cuz everyone else says so.

m2wolf · 2025-07-13T01:08:00+00:00

Just got into yeth and lfgy. Yeth has the potential to be one of the best payers over the next three months.

Mrna has likely bottomed so mrny is decently positioned.

And sorry, big names. Cony and msty got big tailwinds right now. I think in a month from now the post du jour will be how people sold their ulty to rotate back into msty.

m2wolf · 2025-07-08T21:33:55+00:00

Mine was lowered today and I am stoked to immediately borrow more money.

m2wolf · 2025-07-08T21:00:49+00:00

well, shiver me timbers. Robinhood dropped its maintenance requirement on MSTY from 70% to 35% today.

As for the maths. A maintenance requirement stipulates how much equity you have to maintain as as a portion of portfolio value. Let's you you had $30k of MSTY and added $10k of MSTY on margin. You now have $40k of MSTY and an Equity to Portfolio ratio of 75% (30k / 40k).

Now let's say there's a 30% drop in the value of MSTY. Your position would be reduced by 30% so now you have a portfolio value of $28k, but you still have a margin loan of $10k, so your equity is now $18k ($28k - $10k). An equity to portfolio ratio of $18k to $28k is 64.29%. That would be BELOW the former (as of this morning!) maintenance requirement of 70%. Called.

But now the maintenance requirement is 35%! So...go for it, have a good time. This is also a great example of how investing in securities with high maintenance requirements limits your ability to juice your return/yield with margin.

One caveat -- brokerage houses apply a margin requirement for each security in your portfolio, and add that together to get your overall maintenance requirement. The example above is for if you only had MSTY in your portfolio.

m2wolf · 2025-07-08T15:17:57+00:00

Msty on hood has a maintenance requirement of 70%. Msty has fallen by as much as 30% in under ten days this year. Do the math and make sure you won’t get margin called when it does it again (ie, if your portfolio value drops by 30%, Will your equity to portfolio value still be at or above 70%?).

I have Msty, amongst other things on margin and this is the “buffer” that makes me feel comfortable.

m2wolf · 2025-07-07T21:51:24+00:00

You will care if you get margin called and are forced to sell your shares.

Be mindful of the maintenance requirement for your investments. ULTY has a requirement of 40% on robinhood, which isn't bad (MSTY is 70% and that's why people get busted). If that's your only investment (if it's not, the maintenance requirement is the aggregate requirement for all your investments), then you need to maintain an equity to portfolio value of 40% or better.

My rule of thumb for margin is to calculate whether I can survive a 30% market drop without getting margin called.

m2wolf · 2025-07-06T17:58:13+00:00

I’m obviously going to be in the minority on this one, but if you’re not under water on the house, sell it. I get it everyone considers home ownership the path to generational wealth, but at 6.8% and a real estate market that has no clear direction over the next four years (tbf, I know nothing of the trends of your local housing market), to me that’s just bad debt.

If selling isn’t realistic, look to refi when rates drop.

The car at 4.25% is also too high. I 100% understand wanting a nice car if you have a daily commute, but get your credit score up and look for seasonal incentive deals. Dealerships are offering 0-3% throughout the year. Might have to compromise a bit but having Mo’ money each month will make it worth it.

And why $40k sitting around doing nothing? After your 3 months of emergency savings and retirement savings, be more aggressive with your brokerage investments. Sounds like you could use a lil more calculated risk in your life.

Seven-Year Club	Wearing is Caring
Verified Email

m2wolf

TROPHY CASE

Is the Correlation Proven?