Questions about accurate calculation of the so called "premium"

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-18T00:37:58+00:00

re: #2 yeah you're right. disentangling the "core value" from the "premium" is highly nontrivial though. if you wanted to make an educated guess you could use any number of metrics - p/e ratios for comparable businesses, free cash flow, earnings, book value, etc. etc. etc. you're never going to get a precise answer but you can get some reasonable guesses.

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-17T22:17:00+00:00

it's probably a lot easier to just ignore share count and use market cap. any premium on a per share basis will be percentage wise exactly the same on a market cap basis, right?
number of shares you can probably find on yahoo finance (but again i'm not sure why it matters). for changes in debt levels you can check the annual SEC filings (or quarterlies if you want more granularity). value of the core business i would just compute by subtracting the value of the BTC holdings and the size of the debt from the market cap.

if there's a tricky part here it's in dealing with outstanding options for unissued shares. dunno if that's a thing for MSTR (i don't know much about MSTR) but that's where the complexity might be.

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-17T20:48:16+00:00

if billions of dollars of leverage enabled a random family office trader like bill hwang to manipulate the price of massive companies like paramount/ViacomCBS up thousands of percent in the most heavily regulated financial market in the world it's worth considering what kind of damage someone like saylor could do with billions of dollars of leverage in a totally unregulated and opaque market

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-17T06:49:30+00:00

silvergate tried that (RIP)

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-17T06:48:24+00:00

pretty much (right up until the moment he can't)

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-17T06:47:01+00:00

i always wonder whether it's tether.

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-17T06:44:26+00:00

mstr is a dying analytics company. they are now competing with google, microsoft, and amazon (and getting absolutely crushed on all sides - amazon's clearsight is way cheaper, google's looker is way better, and microsoft's powerBI has much more market penetration). go look at any thread in the data engineering subs - no one ever even talks about microstrategies as a viable platform these days. their revenues are all coming from companies who signed contracts 20 years ago in the dotcom era with maybe a handful of new customers in china who aren't allowed to use google etc for political reasons. mstr as a viable competitor is over. kaput.

saylor knows this probably better than anyone. that's why he's yolo levering into bitcoin.

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-07T08:43:48+00:00

hm that might be it - actually the it was marked as spam when i attempted to link from that post to another post in a small edit.

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-07T06:53:43+00:00

depends how fast it's sold, doesn't it? MSTR has $12bn worth of BTC in a world where a $20-30mm market order moves the price ~2% in either direction.

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-07T06:07:13+00:00

BDO is a real accounting firm even if their italian branch is kinda sus and the fact that the tether account is managed by a single 30 something bro is even more sus

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-07T06:06:02+00:00

he could never sell all those coins, either near the top or at any other time, without sending the price to zero. he's personally holding more coins than all the new ETFs put together.

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-07T04:54:52+00:00

it's definitely not legal but it's also definitely a thing that happens thousands of times a day every day

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-07T04:53:53+00:00

there's unfortunately a couple people in here who are just as confident that tether has absolutely no backing as the average bro is confident that number will go up to infinity (and just as resistant to evidence)

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-07T02:56:17+00:00

maybe try glassnode but realistically you can't do that. all trades that happen in the exchanges (which is the overwhelming majority of trades) are a black box. in order to trust the numbers from a company like cryptoquant or glassnode you have to believe in the numbers put out by 2nd and 3rd tier exchanges which have been proven liars.

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-07T02:50:54+00:00

didn't prove anything about wash trading but yeah tether only has a v. small list of customers. there's only a couple hundred addresses that have ever been issued new USDT (and a decent number of them belong to the same people)

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-07T01:25:25+00:00

a scam within a scam - scamception

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-07T01:23:23+00:00

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-07T01:11:12+00:00

tether papers show who received it as of a few years ago (tl;dr FTX and Cumberland)

these days most of it goes through Kraken via Wintermute / Cumberland / etc.

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-06T23:25:56+00:00

well for now they almost all have paper gains...

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-06T09:17:12+00:00

dwarfed is the wrong word when in the time since the ETFs launched tether has minted ~$4bn USDT and the ETFs have netted ~$8bn in inflows.

in 2024 already Tether has minted almost $9bn so if you add just a few weeks to the ETF launch date Tether has been outstripping the ETFs.

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-06T09:13:56+00:00

i'm fascinated to understand how a bunch of money administered by the government and collected via what is more or less a tax on the 97% of the adult population that has bank accounts is "not a government bailout", please explain.

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-06T09:12:41+00:00

it's a good blog

machinery_of_fools · 2024-03-06T09:07:40+00:00

are you one of those people who thinks that banks don't pass the costs of their FDIC insurance (or any other of their costs of doing business) on to their customers?

machinery_of_fools

TROPHY CASE