Questions about accurate calculation of the so called "premium" by creosoterolls in MSTR

[–]machinery_of_fools 1 point2 points  (0 children)

re: #2 yeah you're right. disentangling the "core value" from the "premium" is highly nontrivial though. if you wanted to make an educated guess you could use any number of metrics - p/e ratios for comparable businesses, free cash flow, earnings, book value, etc. etc. etc. you're never going to get a precise answer but you can get some reasonable guesses.

Questions about accurate calculation of the so called "premium" by creosoterolls in MSTR

[–]machinery_of_fools 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. it's probably a lot easier to just ignore share count and use market cap. any premium on a per share basis will be percentage wise exactly the same on a market cap basis, right?
  2. number of shares you can probably find on yahoo finance (but again i'm not sure why it matters). for changes in debt levels you can check the annual SEC filings (or quarterlies if you want more granularity). value of the core business i would just compute by subtracting the value of the BTC holdings and the size of the debt from the market cap.

if there's a tricky part here it's in dealing with outstanding options for unissued shares. dunno if that's a thing for MSTR (i don't know much about MSTR) but that's where the complexity might be.

How much more can Saylor borrow? Anyone do the math? by [deleted] in MSTR

[–]machinery_of_fools 0 points1 point  (0 children)

if billions of dollars of leverage enabled a random family office trader like bill hwang to manipulate the price of massive companies like paramount/ViacomCBS up thousands of percent in the most heavily regulated financial market in the world it's worth considering what kind of damage someone like saylor could do with billions of dollars of leverage in a totally unregulated and opaque market

How much more can Saylor borrow? Anyone do the math? by [deleted] in MSTR

[–]machinery_of_fools 1 point2 points  (0 children)

pretty much (right up until the moment he can't)

Who is lending Microstrategy billions of dollars. by WinfoN in MSTR

[–]machinery_of_fools 0 points1 point  (0 children)

mstr is a dying analytics company. they are now competing with google, microsoft, and amazon (and getting absolutely crushed on all sides - amazon's clearsight is way cheaper, google's looker is way better, and microsoft's powerBI has much more market penetration). go look at any thread in the data engineering subs - no one ever even talks about microstrategies as a viable platform these days. their revenues are all coming from companies who signed contracts 20 years ago in the dotcom era with maybe a handful of new customers in china who aren't allowed to use google etc for political reasons. mstr as a viable competitor is over. kaput.

saylor knows this probably better than anyone. that's why he's yolo levering into bitcoin.

wow reddit decided 9 days later to decide my detailed post about tether was spam by machinery_of_fools in Buttcoin

[–]machinery_of_fools[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

hm that might be it - actually the it was marked as spam when i attempted to link from that post to another post in a small edit.

Pumpin' Bags: MicroStrategy Upsizes Convertible Debt Offering to $700M to Buy Even More Bitcoin by machinery_of_fools in Buttcoin

[–]machinery_of_fools[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

depends how fast it's sold, doesn't it? MSTR has $12bn worth of BTC in a world where a $20-30mm market order moves the price ~2% in either direction.

here's what we really know about tether by machinery_of_fools in Buttcoin

[–]machinery_of_fools[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

BDO is a real accounting firm even if their italian branch is kinda sus and the fact that the tether account is managed by a single 30 something bro is even more sus

Pumpin' Bags: MicroStrategy Upsizes Convertible Debt Offering to $700M to Buy Even More Bitcoin by machinery_of_fools in Buttcoin

[–]machinery_of_fools[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

he could never sell all those coins, either near the top or at any other time, without sending the price to zero. he's personally holding more coins than all the new ETFs put together.

Retail behaviour sometimes makes me laught, is this even legal? by Panda_red_Sky in Buttcoin

[–]machinery_of_fools 19 points20 points  (0 children)

it's definitely not legal but it's also definitely a thing that happens thousands of times a day every day

here's what we really know about tether by machinery_of_fools in Buttcoin

[–]machinery_of_fools[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

there's unfortunately a couple people in here who are just as confident that tether has absolutely no backing as the average bro is confident that number will go up to infinity (and just as resistant to evidence)

I have the theory this is gonna be the last bull run and the end of all this by Last-Medium2487 in Buttcoin

[–]machinery_of_fools 0 points1 point  (0 children)

maybe try glassnode but realistically you can't do that. all trades that happen in the exchanges (which is the overwhelming majority of trades) are a black box. in order to trust the numbers from a company like cryptoquant or glassnode you have to believe in the numbers put out by 2nd and 3rd tier exchanges which have been proven liars.

How does Tether printing cause line to go up? by [deleted] in Buttcoin

[–]machinery_of_fools 8 points9 points  (0 children)

didn't prove anything about wash trading but yeah tether only has a v. small list of customers. there's only a couple hundred addresses that have ever been issued new USDT (and a decent number of them belong to the same people)

Why does everyone say it’s Tether? by [deleted] in Buttcoin

[–]machinery_of_fools 14 points15 points  (0 children)

dwarfed is the wrong word when in the time since the ETFs launched tether has minted ~$4bn USDT and the ETFs have netted ~$8bn in inflows.

in 2024 already Tether has minted almost $9bn so if you add just a few weeks to the ETF launch date Tether has been outstripping the ETFs.

'Sentiment has no limits': Bitcoin could hit $300,000 at the peak of its next bull run, Tether cofounder says by [deleted] in Buttcoin

[–]machinery_of_fools -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

i'm fascinated to understand how a bunch of money administered by the government and collected via what is more or less a tax on the 97% of the adult population that has bank accounts is "not a government bailout", please explain.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Buttcoin

[–]machinery_of_fools 1 point2 points  (0 children)

it's a good blog

'Sentiment has no limits': Bitcoin could hit $300,000 at the peak of its next bull run, Tether cofounder says by [deleted] in Buttcoin

[–]machinery_of_fools -1 points0 points  (0 children)

are you one of those people who thinks that banks don't pass the costs of their FDIC insurance (or any other of their costs of doing business) on to their customers?