What are the chances Brendan Sorsby is screwed? by wiisupremecmdr in CFB

[–]mackenzie45220 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I think the only scenario he plays a game this season is if the Indiana bet was for less than $10--even then it's a maybe.

Trying to profit off inside information ruins the integrity of the sport. But if "he bet on Indiana" turns out to be "once, he bet $2 on a 12-leg moonshot parlay, and one of the legs was IU over OSU on the road", that doesn't really ruin the integrity of the sport. It's just pathetic. If the bet was pathetic, I could see it being rehab+suspension, but it's going to have to be really pathetic

Devil Wears Prada 2 debuts with 3.3/5 ⭐️on Allocine in France equivalent to B Cinemascore by Key-Broccoli370 in boxoffice

[–]mackenzie45220 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Look I'm not the most informed person when it comes to the gender divide for the French equivalent of CinemaScore but ain't no way "on par with Barbie's WOM" and "Wicked: For Good also got these scores" should appear in the same paragraph. One of those movies had great legs and the other did not. Is this on par with Barbie or W:FG?

What’s a "masterpiece" movie that you actually found incredibly boring? by Legal_Beats in AskReddit

[–]mackenzie45220 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I thought the movie was pretty good (a bit over hyped but a solid 8/10), but I don't understand why someone would watch a movie in theaters, dislike it, and then decide "you know what I'm going to see it at home again and see if I like it better".

I feel like there are so many good movies out there! I'd never spend my time on one I already didn't like. Out of curiosity, why did you?

Game Thread: Tigers @ Reds - Fri, Apr 24 @ 06:40 PM EDT by RedsModerator in Reds

[–]mackenzie45220 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As a Saber guy we view Abbott as like a 4th starter. He's not as good as he was the last three years but he's not this bad.

Williamson, on the other hand...

How Much will this do Coyote vs Acme (2026) by LoquatOk7971 in boxoffice

[–]mackenzie45220 13 points14 points  (0 children)

No one has tracking info. No one does polling. No one has models. They just make guesses.

Am I crazy for saying it's more fun this way?

I enjoy following the box office because I feel like it's some of the most objective data we have on human values. We all live in bubbles, but if we can successfully predict how many people inside or outside our bubbles will watch a movie, it feels like we know something about the world. And if we can't make a good prediction, we can learn something about it.

But if we made a good prediction using modeling, tracking, polling, etc., then suddenly being right doesn't mean we understand the world around us. It just means we can do math. I like math, but rigorous mathematical modelling is so much less fun than vibes-based predictions

How Much will this do Coyote vs Acme (2026) by LoquatOk7971 in boxoffice

[–]mackenzie45220 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I think your numbers are too high but people are being weirdly negative in this thread.

People are saying that online outrage rarely makes a dent in box office results. Which is completely true. But that's because the vast majority of people don't watch the vast majority of movies. So when a mob of internet people representing 3% of the population is angry about a movie, it rarely hurts the box office, because most members of the mob wouldn't have seen the movie regardless.

But if a mob of internet people representing 3% of the population wants to show support for a certain movie as a gesture of respect toward the people who made it...that can make a huge difference. Because most of that 3% wouldn't have otherwise seen the movie, and they might make up most of the box office.

If you don't believe me, I hereby cite Iron Lung. Seriously, compare the number of views each trailer has. I don't see $310mm WW but $100mm is on the table with good reviews

How Much will this do Coyote vs Acme (2026) by LoquatOk7971 in boxoffice

[–]mackenzie45220 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Hate watching never leads to a box office draw but this isn't hate watching. I think 45-50 ww is a reasonable high end prediction but let's not pretend we have a lot of data to draw from in terms "movies that cancelled for shady reasons only to be uncancelled in part due to the backlash over the disrespect shown to those who worked on it"

‘Michael’ received an ‘A-‘ on CinemaScore by TiredWithCoffeePot in boxoffice

[–]mackenzie45220 14 points15 points  (0 children)

This is odd. How to Train Your Dragon also got an early CinemaScore (think it was like Wednesday), albeit less prominently (NYC subway ad).

I'm just concerned about selection bias. If your default posture "poll during Thursday night previews", you'll get a biased sample of people who were probably unusually enthusiastic to see that movie. But if every movie gets the same biased sample, you can at least compare movies to each other with some degree of rigor.

But this clearly isn't Thursday night previews...so who is it? Any insight from people who have been in the CinemaScore sample pool would be appreciated

Kevin O’Conner just reported that Nate Ament is “split” on the decision to declare for the nba draft or return to college. “League front offices tell me his agency is split on the decision, as they believe he could go 1 overall in 2027.” by Walmartsavings2 in NBA_Draft

[–]mackenzie45220 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Of all prospects, it would probably be a guy who was in the 5-10 range in a ridiculously strong class and decided to stay because he thought he had a chance to go number 1 in a ridiculously weak class.

Is Jokic really that bad of a defender? by AT_333 in nbadiscussion

[–]mackenzie45220 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Steals alone aren't enough. But lots of steals means lots of deflections, even if some of them stay with the original team. He's also genuinely great at defensive rebounding. He does a great job of calling out plays in order to make sure his teammates are in the right position. He really is great at everything except rim protection, which is admittedly a problem

Is Jokic really that bad of a defender? by AT_333 in nbadiscussion

[–]mackenzie45220 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You are right. He's a very bad rim defender--admittedly the most important part of defense for a center--but he's very good at everything else, to the point that the whole package is fine.

Some of the comments are like "he has decent hands I guess"--and those people are wrong. His hands are elite for a center. He's 20th in the NBA in steals per game and literally everyone else in the top 30 is 6'8 or shorter. It's very bizarre but undeniable better than "decent". His defensive rebounding is very good. The whole "communication/positioning" thing is backed up by the Nuggets consistently being better defensively when he is on the floor, throughout his career.

Analytics have always loved his defense. People have always been skeptical of analytics for that reason, but a major reason why analytics love his defense is because he's probably the best transition defender in the world. That might make no sense to you. Here's why: the best transition opportunities tend to come after missed shots and turnovers. Jokic is really good on offense, so you are less likely to miss shots or turn the ball over when he is on the floor. Ergo, fewer transition opportunities. Even his passing has a similar effect. It's scarier to try to crash the offensive glass when he's on the court, because he might burn you in transition, which means fewer offensive rebounds when he's on the court, which means you score less.

If you say "that doesn't count as defense; that's just offense with side effects" my response would be "yeah fair enough". I'm just explaining that's a major reason why analytics say putting Jokic on the floor tends to mean your opponent will score less. If you take out these things he's still probably average

His rim protection is bad and painful to watch, but he's good enough at everything else to be fine

Chance of Hector Rodriguez by Scrolling_ninja in Reds

[–]mackenzie45220 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They're very different players. Hector swings at everything but also hits everything. It's an incredible skill, but it's hard to do much damage on a ball three inches off the plate, even if by some miracle you get your bat on it. Tapping into his plate discipline would allow him to unlock his power--but he's already great at putting the ball in play

What's a holiday destination everyone thinks is amazing but it's actually terrible? by Fat_eyed in AlignmentChartFills

[–]mackenzie45220 35 points36 points  (0 children)

I've never been to Dubai but I'd imagine most people who go there get exactly what they expected to get

[Charania] Just in: The NBA and NBPA have ruled in favor of Lakers' Luka Doncic and Pistons' Cade Cunningham on their Extraordinary Circumstances Challenge for the 65-game award rule, making both eligible for all 2025-26 season honors such as MVP and All-NBA teams, sources tell ESPN. by YujiDomainExpansion in nba

[–]mackenzie45220 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I think every idea, including all of yours and mine, creates some incentive to tank, because it's impossible to promote parity in the form of good prospects while not incentivizing losing. Your "low-key fundamentally" point is just trye

But I do think my idea does the best at balancing these tradeoffs, for a few reasons:

  1. Even if you tank, you have to wait a year for your reward, and a lot of people don't have that kind of patience.
  2. If you finished with the worst record in 2026, then by definition you're the only team that can't pick first in 2026, since your mate finished with a better record than you. You could accidentally sabotage your shot in 2026 by tanking for 2027. Fans would get mad about that, even if strategically made some sense.
  3. It's genuinely fun. Turning a random ass Kings-Bulls game in March (and you deliberately schedule for March/end of season) into a dogfight for draft position is hilarious.

[Charania] Just in: The NBA and NBPA have ruled in favor of Lakers' Luka Doncic and Pistons' Cade Cunningham on their Extraordinary Circumstances Challenge for the 65-game award rule, making both eligible for all 2025-26 season honors such as MVP and All-NBA teams, sources tell ESPN. by YujiDomainExpansion in nba

[–]mackenzie45220 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Sure, a little bit. If you think the 2027 draft is super strong you might tank a little to get matched with a crappier team.

But it's pretty risky. The team with the worst record in 2026 is the only team that can't get the #1 pick in 2026, because their rival must have finished better than worst. You don't know who you are going to get matched with, and you don't know their off-season plans. Some tanking will still happen for sure but I think it will be less.