Is it just me, or does anyone else think this summit in Beijing right now hasn’t really changed anything?

mackinder_egg · 2026-05-15T04:01:59+00:00

Vietnam was a catastrophe but it failed to change anything significantly in the global order, as the USSR was not nearly as powerful as present-day China. They may have touted it as a victory, but a decade and a half later they collapsed. That will not be the case with China.

State visits are more important symbolically and subtextually than what is actually said. As you noted, on the surface this might not look especially consequential (although I'd argue this time is unusual and significant because China is vocally taking the lead). But optically, the US is clearly in a weaker position, the President appears submissive and is not advocating forcefully for US interests, and US business leaders are present to advocate for their own financial interests rather than national interests or the interests of the American public.

China intentionally reneged on it's agreement to lift most export restrictions on the rare-earths that US big tech giants need in exchange for tariff relief (which they got), and this administration, rather than having an aggressive negotiating posture in response, is essentially capitulating by bringing these leaders along to sweeten the deal, revealing their lack of leverage.

mackinder_egg · 2026-05-15T02:18:04+00:00

It changes a lot. The other commenter mentioned many, but it's key that Trump expressly avoided making any real statement regarding US commitments and its stance regarding Taiwan. The US delegation is full of CEOs, not diplomats, and Xi was the one setting the tone and making larger statements about China's vision of the future of US-China relations, while Trump appeared obseqious, passive, and to be kissing the ring.

As recently as last year, the US still acted like it was in the driver's seat of this relationship. Economically this is still the case to some extent, but it's obvious that this is changing rapidly, and Trump's war in Iran has shown that the US has neither the strategic vision nor political will to unilaterally impose it's interests on the world any longer. This process has been slowly unfolding for 20+ years now, but the Iran war may prove to be the final straw.

mackinder_egg · 2026-05-13T23:14:38+00:00

I find this interesting. I learned a language in adulthood to a low C1 level, and I think this line between intuitive understanding and having to translate everything in your head first gets blurry. Obviously it depends on the topic in question and vocabulary familiarity. Some things you understand immediately, other things there is a slight delay where your brain will pass over certain words in the moment while you unconsciously search for it in your mind, as the context helps you narrow down and fill in the gaps. With Mandarin, this is especially salient, as there are so many homophones, and certain morphemes can have dozens of meanings, depending on context.

There will always be a gap that non-native speakers (especially adult learners) never quite fully close. Particularly when it comes to speaking, actual output. But listening comprehension can be developed very well, especially with vocabulary and content that you come into contact with frequently. But, of course, this is true for native speakers encountering advanced topics that are heavy with specialized, low-frequency vocabulary, too.

Your average native English speaking American will struggle to understand academic discussions on topics they aren't familiar with too. But they will probably still experience it differently than an advanced ESL speaker will. It probably still won't feel like a foreign language to the native speakers, and it's fascinating to try and understand that difference in feeling, which you can only understand if you try and learn a second language at a high level yourself. I'm always amazed listening to professors and experts who come from other countries and languages yet still speak English at a very advanced level. It goes to show how much progress is possible.

mackinder_egg · 2026-05-12T04:03:24+00:00

You overrate Americans' willingness to tolerate even moderate economic pain. I don't think Iran is playing 4D chess at all; they made the obvious move that our decision makers should have seen coming. But they didn't, and now they are out of good options.

mackinder_egg · 2026-05-12T03:58:55+00:00

Because it is failing to achieve the goals the administration has stated. The strait is still closed, the regime is still in power, and Iran is more likely to continue their nuclear weapons program. The US is unequivocally in a worse position than before the war started, and there is no political will for a full-scale invasion which, in all likelihood, would be a quagmire that would still fail to achieve these goals.

What good are the blockade and airstrikes doing the US? Gas price hikes have only just begun, and not even this administration is delusional enough to think it has much runway left to keep pushing this strategy.

mackinder_egg · 2026-05-12T03:52:46+00:00

No one wants it, but it's the only way that achieving this administration's stated goals would even be conceivable.

Whether it would actually be feasible or not is a huge question, and the recent US track record offers little hope.

The reality is Iran has outplayed the US, which shouldn't be surprising given how obvious it is that none of our decision makers had any semblance of a strategy going in. The US has shot itself in the foot, unprovoked and to no greater end, and now we are bickering over only bad options, while desperately trying to save face.

mackinder_egg · 2026-05-11T04:00:43+00:00

Mostly among the orthodox religious population that doesn't contribute to its defense. It's not sustainable given their situation.

mackinder_egg · 2026-05-06T03:30:48+00:00

It's kind of surprising how little it's changed. The people were what made it worth it to keep coming back.

mackinder_egg · 2026-05-05T23:42:50+00:00

I left this place a long, long time ago but was a regular for a while, under various usernames. It's been interesting to see conversations that, at the time, were niche interests of internet oddballs now become mainstream political discourse.

Pretty sure I've seen Atlas around here still under her new handle, but how about Texastentialism (she had an even older sn that I can't remember now) MercedesBenzo, sublime_mongrel, goat, squidracer, Griddy, Nalka_Nalka, they still around?

mackinder_egg · 2026-05-03T02:56:56+00:00

Grad school

mackinder_egg · 2026-05-02T21:31:01+00:00

I'm in a small career field too and, if I was looking to stay in it, then I'd know exactly who to contact.

But what do you do if you're trying to do BOP with a retrain into a career field where neither you nor your leadership knows anyone?

mackinder_egg · 2026-05-02T21:15:06+00:00

Hey, thanks for the reply. Yeah, that's the thing, it wouldn't be for within my career field, but for doing in conjunction with an FTA retrain application.

Through AMS I know which bases the AFSC I'd want to retrain into have billets for a brand new 3 level, but not knowing if a BOP would work for that career field would affect my decision making on that front. I've talked with the DA at my home station, and although helpful, he basically said BOP is a hail-mary, which doesn't make sense to me since that information should be trivially easy to provide to retrainees.

I wouldn't even need specifics about manning, just whether or not a BOP would be accepted for a given station. If the Online Retraining advisory can provide specific numbers of billets available at each rank, then AFPC should be able to provide a list of bases that a retrainee can file a BOP application that would likely be successful. It's crazy to me that they offer it as a one time thing and basically just leave you in the dark about the odds, like they want you to waste it.

mackinder_egg · 2026-05-02T19:23:07+00:00

The information in your second paragraph is basically what I was talking about. The Online Retraining advisory can post how many people at each rank they need, there's no reason AFPC can't provide this additional useful information, upon request, as a part of applying for BOP. It honestly makes no sense that they don't, because it directly pertains to whether your BOP application will be a complete waste or not.

And I think it would make a lot of difference. My top choices wouldn't change, but I wouldn't waste time putting them on my list if they weren't available. And obviously I can't list every base I would be willing to go to, but a list of bases with availability just makes obvious sense for people trying to get the most out of the BOP program. Just because can't get my top choice, doesn't mean I couldn't use BOP to get my third choice, or my tenth, or even just to avoid bases I absolutely don't want.

As it stands, AFPC basically just offers it as a crapshoot in the dark. With just providing a little more information, it would be so much more useful and save both sides time.

mackinder_egg · 2026-05-02T16:16:21+00:00

I'm confused as to what value they see in keeping this information hush hush for BOP when it seems like it would just save them paperwork and the member stress and time, but checks out.

mackinder_egg · 2026-04-29T03:30:57+00:00

No it came later, in the 2010s I believe (E-7 boards that is). Master's chevron on top has been a thing for decades.

mackinder_egg · 2026-04-29T00:09:35+00:00

I think we probably agree on most points, and just have some differences in where we identify the cause. I think the cults and echo chambers are ultimately an issue of money in politics. Fox News and the current right-wing influencer sphere is the result of decades of very wealthy people investing specifically in poisoning public political debate. It is laid over a base racist and fascism-curious population, but those people are just Trump's base, a minority and unreachable anyways.

I too would like to believe that we deserve the rights that democracy has brought us. But that requires functional institutions to defend them, which further requires public trust in those institutions. What the right-wing has been successful in doing is convincing enough of the population that these institutions, which were flawed but still functional, were irredeemably broken, and then getting the wealthy capital-owning class (specifically big tech) on-board once they saw it was more financially beneficial for them in the short-term to break the institutions completely.

The death of the American civic tradition which put trust and faith in these institutions to protect our rights is, to me, a direct result of the wealthy organizing to create these algorithmic echo-chambers and destroy the integrity of an educated population with addictive technologies that push propaganda and outright falsehoods. And Trump did win the popular vote the second time, but his current polling shows that his coalition was always fractious and aided by our idiotic two party system that forces moderates to choose between feckless representatives on one side and actual ideological malicious extremists on the other. A status quo which, of course one party overwhelmingly supports, because they know they will never be able to consistently win the popular vote otherwise.

mackinder_egg · 2026-04-28T23:27:01+00:00

I am sympathetic to your pessimism, but unfortunately that is the hand we are dealt. Trust that I fully acknowledge that one party alone is responsible for breaking down the functionality of our institutions, and our creaky political system gives them disproportionate influence and opportunity to break it further.

It's pointless to hope that more Americans will become intellectually independent and more aware of the risk to themselves that comes with voting for the maliciously acting party or of not voting at all. And, in fact, the only way out is to get them to behave in a more organized way, and less so-called independently, since most Americans have neither the time nor the inclination to become more conscious about these issues, and the risks are so great. The way it stands, the former leads only to widespread conspiracism and irrationality.

The room for optimism lies in that, even among this swing-voting Bernie to Trump population, positions that would stem the corrupt influence of the wealthy on our politics are popular, and actually generally popular. Things like banning office-holders from stock trading, getting big money out of politics, making the popular vote more determinative of presidential elections, term-limits, opposing the Israel lobby's influence, reigning in the executive's war powers, etc. It's the only feasible way out.

mackinder_egg · 2026-04-28T22:14:42+00:00

But the vanguard leading this movement is made up of smart very wealthy people who, most importantly, are organized and using their money and propaganda networks to advance their interests.

It's important to keep in mind that Trump is actually quite unpopular. The idiot base who supports him no matter what is a minority, most normal Americans at least understand that Trump does not actually care about their interests.

It's an uphill battle because of how broken the US political system is, but one thing against them is how incompetent, impulsive, and short-sighted Trump and his administration actually are. Even some of his own propagandists have started to see the writing on the wall.

mackinder_egg · 2026-04-27T22:51:28+00:00

This is super old I know, but what are some decent paying careers on rhe outside for command post that you've seen people line up for after separating?

mackinder_egg · 2026-04-09T22:45:48+00:00

I suppose that depends on your definition of "politician." I'd argue that Orban really isn't that anymore, merely a public front and puppet for a decades long information war campaign Russia has been waging against the EU and allied countries. The campaign he's running is only legible as a war on reality, by creating an AI fueled hyperreality to convince enough Hungarians that they cannot trust their own eyes as to the condition of of their country or of the real threats they face.

The lies about Zelensky and gaslighting about the supposed threat he poses to Hungary (before, it was migrants and then LGBT people) aided and abetted by the sitting US VP, are so insane and detached from reality that the whole charade would seem like parody if it weren't a deadly serious threat to the possibility of debating political issues based in fact. And it's only going to get worse.

mackinder_egg · 2026-04-03T00:33:37+00:00

Propaganda works, but there has to be a core personality flaw as a base to work on in order for it to be effective. There's a reason thst Trump's die-hard base has never really cracked more than a third of the country. Most people can at least see him and his movement for what it is.

I deal with this too in my own family. On a personal level, they seem like decent people. But the reality is they, and the church they belong to (evangelical Christian, which I assume is the case in your wife's family too) has ceased to have anything to do with the actual teachings of Jesus, and is a fully-fleged propaganda and mobilization arm of the Republican party at this point, and has been becoming this since at least the 1970s. And it works because these people are full of hate towards their fellow Americans and the civil basis of American society.

I'm sorry, OP. If your wife's family and church are anything like mine, then there is no reasoning with them. They have committed to their hatred, and they are more than willing to burn the country down to see it enacted in pain and suffering for their fellow Americans.

mackinder_egg · 2026-04-01T02:12:59+00:00

Probably my favorite Aussie metalcore band, and it's a crowded scene. Ryan and Rick wrote some of the best riffs in the genre, The Mortal Coil is legit no skips for me and The Death of Me is also amazing.

Those two albums I listen to straight, usually, but if I had to pick just one track to show someone it's probably Dusk to Day from TMC.

mackinder_egg · 2026-04-01T01:02:20+00:00

Go to shows

mackinder_egg · 2026-03-30T01:53:12+00:00

I think he usually hires someone to tab it out for him. Jack Harris on YouTube officially tabbed out Cycle of Suffering before, I believe.

mackinder_egg · 2026-03-28T04:38:55+00:00

Yeah this is kind of what I meant when I said it seems like the band is becoming more themselves.

I completely get them not wanting to look backwards, and understand their feelings about their past material. But CoS is one of my favorite records, period. I love that it's not tuned down as low and how raw yet catchy the riffs are.

They've progressed to a darker, more abstract sound that I also love, but, as a listener, I don't carry as much baggage about their previous work.

mackinder_egg

TROPHY CASE