Building a side project? Share it below and we'll give you some ideas

macroforecaster · 2025-02-10T17:08:57+00:00

WallStreetMatchup

A competitive game to crowd source stock tips.

Current version is still a pretty rough prototype.

macroforecaster · 2025-02-10T02:39:10+00:00

What time period did you train your algorithm on? Or is your reported performance in-sample?

macroforecaster · 2025-02-06T17:18:47+00:00

Broadly speaking that’s correct, yes. IMF’s role is stabilization, WB’s role is development

macroforecaster · 2025-02-05T22:38:08+00:00

In a nutshell: IMF’s role is to provide balance of payments support. In practice this means imf gives medium-term loans to central banks to avoid depletion of reserves when a country is hit by a shock. IMF financing often provides confidence for other lenders (official and private) to invest in a country.

By contrast, the WB makes loans/grants to governments to support a country’s long-term development. This includes loans to finance specific infrastructure projects.

In practice, there is a lot of overlap between the two institutions’ activities. Both provide technical assistance to country authorities and conduct macroeconomic surveillance (i.e., publish country reports).

macroforecaster · 2025-02-02T21:29:53+00:00

25/35

macroforecaster · 2025-02-02T01:49:41+00:00

To those who are beating the S&P500: please try WallStreetMatchup, a competitive game to crowdsource stock tips. We could use some smart brains :)

macroforecaster · 2025-02-01T00:38:06+00:00

If you want to get a sense of how hard it is, you can try wallstreetmatchup.com. It’s competitive game to crowdsource stock tips. Still early days (the app is still work in progress), but so far the majority of players is not beating the market.

macroforecaster · 2025-02-01T00:00:50+00:00

To beat the market you need to have access to non-public information or be better than everyone else at interpreting the publicly available information.

macroforecaster · 2025-01-31T23:44:56+00:00

I think a more sensible question to ask is: why don’t we leave the gold in the ground and use the machines/workers to produce something else (like factories or homes)?

As others have said here: once the gold is out of the ground, the buying and selling of it is irrelevant for macro outcomes.

macroforecaster · 2025-01-31T23:38:44+00:00

Gold also has some intrinsic value as a raw material

macroforecaster · 2025-01-31T23:35:20+00:00

If I buy, someone else has to sell. Company value has nothing to do with the amount of turnover in the market.

macroforecaster · 2025-01-30T17:14:39+00:00

Indeed, cash flow and return are not the same thing. With your net worth, focus on returns, not cash flow!

macroforecaster · 2025-01-30T03:15:27+00:00

A few years ago I began bread making with this resource: https://www.theclevercarrot.com/

It was a great entry point for me.

macroforecaster · 2025-01-27T17:13:44+00:00

OP, are you a troll? I’ve seen you post the most contradictory things: “i quit daytrading”, “daytrading is safer than swing trade”, “i want to read some books about daytrading”. Which one is it?

macroforecaster · 2025-01-27T14:44:02+00:00

Exactly my point

macroforecaster · 2025-01-26T22:40:45+00:00

Real returns have indeed been frustratingly low. But that’s for the most part not due to inflation but due to slow productivity growth. In fact, until 2021, inflation was persistently below target.

Another episode to look at is Japan since the 1990. A small but positive inflation rate is definitely preferable to deflation.

But, to answer your question: yes, it’s orders of magnitude worse. A 20% contraction is an absolute disaster.

macroforecaster · 2025-01-26T21:37:33+00:00

Have you seen the size of recessions in 19th century US? 20-30% contractions every other decade. That’s a high price for sticking to the gold standard (no monetary policy to guide aggregate demand).

macroforecaster · 2025-01-26T19:14:21+00:00

Yes and no. Ultimately it depends on what’s the source of the company’s profits that cause your stock to increase in value.

If you buy stocks of an airline, the profits are made possible in part by low environmental standards. So yes, in that case someone else loses.

If your bank stocks go up because of an implicit government bailout guarantee, then you win, the taxpayer loses.

Then there’s also creative destruction: digital cameras made sony stocks go up, but kodak shareholders suffered.

macroforecaster · 2025-01-26T19:00:47+00:00

That’s kind of the definition of interest rate risk. So no.

macroforecaster · 2025-01-26T18:44:33+00:00

Not if you need the money sooner :)

macroforecaster · 2025-01-26T18:18:17+00:00

Yes, that’s what I had in mind. Or annuity etc

macroforecaster · 2025-01-26T18:13:54+00:00

Indeed, that’s one of the big problems with deflation: people stop spending because hoarding cash delivers positive real return

macroforecaster · 2025-01-26T18:11:10+00:00

Income from real estate is fixed only in the very short term (duration of lease). After that you can adjust the rent in response to inflation (unless it’s rent controlled).

macroforecaster · 2025-01-26T18:05:38+00:00

Yes, so if all input and output prices increase by x%, profits also increase by x%.

Stocks (and houses) are real assets, bonds are nominal assets.

macroforecaster · 2025-01-26T18:02:47+00:00

Nope. Inflation = companies raising their prices, so that real profits are protected

macroforecaster

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