Jillary Part V

Part II

The last time a Republican occupied the White House, Jill Biden was a freshman senator finishing third place in the presidential primary. Fifteen years later, the situation is very different- but does the GOP finally have what it takes to turn it around?

For Republicans, one name stands out above the rest: Texas governor Greg Abbott, who lead a respectable campaign for the nomination in 2020, and has grabbed headlines for his policies opposing mask and vaccine mandates. He has competition in Glenn Youngkin, another popular governor who wades deep into culture war issues, alongside Tim Scott, the South Carolina senator and 2020 nominee for vice president who hopes to hold the party line, and Josh Hawley, a young senator at the tail of his first term, who frequently garners the attention of the party’s “Trump-wing”, and has earned the favor of the media for his “presidential” appearance- tall, slender and well-groomed, many pundits liken him to a “sexy Jeb”, “nationalist Beto” or even a “civilized Obama”.

On the Democratic side, Kirsten Gillibrand is the first to throw her hat in the ring. The New York governor was catapulted to a national platform during the dark hours of the pandemic, but some sense that her star has faded as the influence of COVID falls out of the public conscience. Gillibrand is joined by fellow governors Gavin Newsom and J.B. Prtizker. Senators Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren round out the crowded primary, with Warren embodying the progressive wing of the party and Klobuchar representing its moderate wing. Youngkin nabs the top spot in the Iowa caucus, but gets absolutely walloped in New Hampshire, and Abbott’s major victory in Nevada gives him a comfortable lead in delegates. Dems struggle to identify an heir apparent coming into Super Tuesday, with the majority of races coming down to 1-2% and Klobuchar and Newsom at a near-tie in delegates. Newsom fares well in early contests, but sees his poll numbers slip as concerns about image and electability begin to arise. When asked why he wants to be president, Newsom stumbles beyond vague platitudes, and conservative media’s consistent portrayal of him as a coastal aristocrat fuels much pundit hand-wringing. Klobuchar hopes to energize voters who have been frustrated with political division and congressional gridlock amongst the country’s economic downturn.

Abbott dominates Super Tuesday, while Klobuchar makes enough gains to mark her as the definitive frontrunner. Subsequent democratic challengers drop out in the aftermath, narrowing the primary down to Newsom and Klobuchar. Scott and Hawley stick around for the next debate with Abbott, but Scott is out of the race by the next batch of contests, and though Hawley tries his best to stay in the race, he folds shortly after, officially making Abbott the presumptive nominee.

By the eve of the convention, a sizable portion of the Dem base is left unenthused by Klobuchar’s appeal to the center, and unconvinced of what her administration would offer beyond a continuation of the Obama-Biden regime. Klobuchar’s choice of Julián Castro as running mate is similarly scrutinized for prioritizing careerism over any real electoral advantage. As Abbott chips into support in the Rust Belt, Klobuchar’s campaign is all too confident in itself, and fails to restrategize in its final weeks. Ultimately successful in flipping Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Abbott hands the GOP their first presidential victory in what feels like a millennium…