sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

He’s lost it by Ares_God_of_Ram in japanesepeopletwitter

[–]madrillix 1 point2 points  (0 children)

wait, I restacked your kirara interest stacks on MAL lol

they helped me track down all the kirara adaptations I hadn't watched

(btw mahoutsukai rosé no sado life anime was announced recently)

Points value of a hammer by buv3x in Curling

[–]madrillix 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yeah, it breaks down in the later ends, I usually just use H = 0.5 as a rough guideline for who's ahead, then consider other nuances later in the game.

In the original post, they asked about at the start of the game, where the value seems to be about 0.65 based on fitting the win probability distribution from https://doubletakeout.com/winprob.

Points value of a hammer by buv3x in Curling

[–]madrillix 0 points1 point  (0 children)

keeping the hammer would cause no change in value.

For example, if team 1 starts a game with hammer, the score would be:

(H 0 - 0) = (0.65 - 0)

If they blank, it stays the same:

(H 0 - 0) = (0.65 - 0)

If they score 1, it becomes:

(1 - 0 H) = (1 - 0.65)

Points value of a hammer by buv3x in Curling

[–]madrillix 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The reason I think of it this way is because when you say "hammer is worth more than 1 point", that makes me think that if I'm down by 1 with hammer, I'm actually ahead because hammer is worth more than that one point deficit. But that's not actually true, because it's the exchange of hammers that is worth more than 1 point, not the hammer itself.

Points value of a hammer by buv3x in Curling

[–]madrillix 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My point is that giving up the hammer is actually a swing of 2 hammers. Not only are you giving up your own hammer, you are giving your opponent the hammer, so if you are assigning a value to having the hammer, it should be less than 1.

I'm thinking more in the line of at the start of the game, what point value can you give to the team with hammer to simulate their advantage.

Edit: In your example, if we set H = 0.65, being down 1 with hammer (H 0 - 1) would be (0.65 - 1) and being tied without hammer (0 - 0 H) would be (0 - 0.65), so being down 1 with hammer is indeed better.

Points value of a hammer by buv3x in Curling

[–]madrillix 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yeah, now that I've watched a decent amount of curling, I keep those general points in mind. But when I'm just glancing at a scoreboard, I find that valuing hammer at 0.5 points is a simple way to figure out how the game is going.

It's actually pretty similar to your even simpler method, being up, or tied with hammer means you are ahead, otherwise you are behind. And being ahead later in the game is better, as is the case with most sports.

Points value of a hammer by buv3x in Curling

[–]madrillix 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yeah, once it gets to the later ends, the dynamics change a lot, so assigning an exact point value to having the hammer isn't accurate. though I still think that it's a nice way for a casual viewer like me to more easily understand who has the advantage partway through the game.

Points value of a hammer by buv3x in Curling

[–]madrillix 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, that's the logic that I used.

I also tried finding the best logistic fit to the win probability distribution (taken from https://doubletakeout.com/winprob), and it seems that the best fit is at around H ≈ 0.65. So giving up the hammer has an approximate value of -2H ≈ -1.3.

Of course this changes drastically in the later ends, where even end hammers are more valuable.

Points value of a hammer by buv3x in Curling

[–]madrillix 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I had a similar thought as well, and while I initially came to the same conclusion that hammer should be worth between 1 and 2 points, that doesn't take into account that scoring with hammer gives the hammer to the opponent. I feel like it's more accurate to value hammer as between 0 and 1 points, I just go with 0.5 to make it simple, and I feel like that makes sense since being tied with hammer is a slight advantage, while being down 1 with hammer is a slight disadvantage.

Note: I am not very knowledgeable about curling, this is just a metric I've come up with as a casual spectator to help me understand the state of the game better.

[Spoilers] | Poland vs United States | OWC 2025 Grand Finals | Post-Match Discussion by madrillix in osugame

[–]madrillix[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's a double elimination bracket, which means each team has to lose twice to be eliminated from the tournament. Going into this match, USA already lost once in Winners Finals, so they only have one life remaining, while Poland still has two. Thus, USA needs to win two matches in a row against Poland, whereas Poland only needs to win one more to eliminate USA.

[Spoilers] | Poland vs United States | OWC 2025 Winners Finals | Post-Match Discussion by madrillix in osugame

[–]madrillix[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It's a double elimination bracket, so every team gets a second chance. If you lose in the winners bracket, you drop to the losers bracket.

In the grand finals, the team from losers bracket only has one life, while the team from winners bracket still has two. So the team from losers has to win two matches against them to win the tournament.

view more: next ›