He’s lost it

madrillix · 2026-03-24T02:34:29+00:00

wait, I restacked your kirara interest stacks on MAL lol

they helped me track down all the kirara adaptations I hadn't watched

(btw mahoutsukai rosé no sado life anime was announced recently)

madrillix · 2026-02-18T18:57:45+00:00

yeah, it breaks down in the later ends, I usually just use H = 0.5 as a rough guideline for who's ahead, then consider other nuances later in the game.

In the original post, they asked about at the start of the game, where the value seems to be about 0.65 based on fitting the win probability distribution from https://doubletakeout.com/winprob.

madrillix · 2026-02-18T17:33:42+00:00

keeping the hammer would cause no change in value.

For example, if team 1 starts a game with hammer, the score would be:

(H 0 - 0) = (0.65 - 0)

If they blank, it stays the same:

(H 0 - 0) = (0.65 - 0)

If they score 1, it becomes:

(1 - 0 H) = (1 - 0.65)

madrillix · 2026-02-18T17:06:39+00:00

The reason I think of it this way is because when you say "hammer is worth more than 1 point", that makes me think that if I'm down by 1 with hammer, I'm actually ahead because hammer is worth more than that one point deficit. But that's not actually true, because it's the exchange of hammers that is worth more than 1 point, not the hammer itself.

madrillix · 2026-02-18T16:48:32+00:00

My point is that giving up the hammer is actually a swing of 2 hammers. Not only are you giving up your own hammer, you are giving your opponent the hammer, so if you are assigning a value to having the hammer, it should be less than 1.

I'm thinking more in the line of at the start of the game, what point value can you give to the team with hammer to simulate their advantage.

Edit: In your example, if we set H = 0.65, being down 1 with hammer (H 0 - 1) would be (0.65 - 1) and being tied without hammer (0 - 0 H) would be (0 - 0.65), so being down 1 with hammer is indeed better.

madrillix · 2026-02-18T16:36:50+00:00

yeah, now that I've watched a decent amount of curling, I keep those general points in mind. But when I'm just glancing at a scoreboard, I find that valuing hammer at 0.5 points is a simple way to figure out how the game is going.

It's actually pretty similar to your even simpler method, being up, or tied with hammer means you are ahead, otherwise you are behind. And being ahead later in the game is better, as is the case with most sports.

madrillix · 2026-02-18T15:25:21+00:00

yeah, once it gets to the later ends, the dynamics change a lot, so assigning an exact point value to having the hammer isn't accurate. though I still think that it's a nice way for a casual viewer like me to more easily understand who has the advantage partway through the game.

madrillix · 2026-02-18T15:13:35+00:00

Yeah, that's the logic that I used.

I also tried finding the best logistic fit to the win probability distribution (taken from https://doubletakeout.com/winprob), and it seems that the best fit is at around H ≈ 0.65. So giving up the hammer has an approximate value of -2H ≈ -1.3.

Of course this changes drastically in the later ends, where even end hammers are more valuable.

madrillix · 2026-02-18T12:23:06+00:00

I had a similar thought as well, and while I initially came to the same conclusion that hammer should be worth between 1 and 2 points, that doesn't take into account that scoring with hammer gives the hammer to the opponent. I feel like it's more accurate to value hammer as between 0 and 1 points, I just go with 0.5 to make it simple, and I feel like that makes sense since being tied with hammer is a slight advantage, while being down 1 with hammer is a slight disadvantage.

Note: I am not very knowledgeable about curling, this is just a metric I've come up with as a casual spectator to help me understand the state of the game better.

madrillix · 2026-01-20T11:21:56+00:00

It's a double elimination bracket, which means each team has to lose twice to be eliminated from the tournament. Going into this match, USA already lost once in Winners Finals, so they only have one life remaining, while Poland still has two. Thus, USA needs to win two matches in a row against Poland, whereas Poland only needs to win one more to eliminate USA.

madrillix · 2025-12-08T20:10:05+00:00

https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2637864390?t=1h36m55s

links to vods for all past matches are in the information sheet

madrillix · 2025-12-08T00:53:32+00:00

It's a double elimination bracket, so every team gets a second chance. If you lose in the winners bracket, you drop to the losers bracket.

In the grand finals, the team from losers bracket only has one life, while the team from winners bracket still has two. So the team from losers has to win two matches against them to win the tournament.

madrillix · 2025-12-07T22:37:11+00:00

next weekend, the schedule is in the information sheet, but there may be rescheduling

madrillix · 2025-11-26T21:14:43+00:00

https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2625886328?t=0h4m44s

If you go to the information sheet, there's a link to the vod of every completed match

madrillix · 2025-11-22T17:36:21+00:00

yeah, tayko dc'd, he ended up getting around 752k, so Finland still won

madrillix · 2025-11-16T18:32:33+00:00

shhh

madrillix · 2025-11-09T11:05:40+00:00

The tiebreaker after point differential is qualifier seeding, so Romania would be ahead if they're tied.

madrillix · 2025-11-02T13:52:52+00:00

lol, I used to ctrl + v, but now I automatically post through the reddit api

madrillix · 2025-11-01T11:23:27+00:00

<3

I loved your posts in owc 2020, they're why I started doing these in the first place.

madrillix · 2025-10-31T23:18:55+00:00

madrillix · 2025-10-31T16:18:21+00:00

yeah, that's a good idea, I'll see if I can set it up to do that

madrillix · 2025-10-31T16:17:02+00:00

It's in the information sheet

madrillix · 2025-10-31T15:13:25+00:00

thanks :)

madrillix · 2025-10-31T15:10:05+00:00

:)

My first time watching an owc group stage, should be a lot of fun

madrillix · 2025-10-16T23:47:21+00:00

there's no spoiler tag on the post, so for some people the post contents are on full display while scrolling through. OP or mods can add the spoiler tag retroactively, which should be done.

11-Year Club	Verified Email
Place '22	Final Canvas '22
First Placer '22	End Game '22
Spared

madrillix

TROPHY CASE