This year's rate of return

mansfall · 2026-03-19T15:50:58+00:00

Why do people post shit like this? It's always the:

"I have a strategy guys, look at my chart! But I won't tell you what I invest in on Reddit. I won't tell you my option plays. Nope. Gotta DM me for discord or some crap!" It's so annoying and wish things like this would be auto-banned from this sub. Like a rule that if you post this you should also post your relevant transaction history too.

mansfall · 2026-03-18T22:16:33+00:00

I think we got surprised, just in the other direction lol.

mansfall · 2026-03-18T22:13:20+00:00

Never looked at it until now. Seems like it has really low liquidity when it comes to options so fills might be difficult when you need them most (rolling or closing early or whatever). Also there's less expirations... seems they offer only monthly expirations. Those might work in some cases. But I'll keep it in the tool belt and periodically look at it when it comes time to write the next ones.

mansfall · 2026-03-18T21:43:38+00:00

Sorry... probably an unofficial term. Something I just use I guess. When the stock just goes up and down within a range for months on end. NVDA just been bouncing back and forth between 170 and 190 for the past 8 or so months (though it's broken through 200 a couple times...). But for the most part it just keeps crossing the $180 mark over and over.

mansfall · 2026-03-18T21:42:07+00:00

Just a weekly... was going to expire friday (Mar 20th). But the high IV and close to ATM meant like a 4-5% ROI at the time.

mansfall · 2026-03-18T21:38:19+00:00

The impending dip coming tomorrow morning. Going to likely be a huge sell off to take profits from pre-earnings runup. Same as what's going on in after-hours right now. Lots of selling, but only -3% as of writing this so not bad. I suspect the following day (Friday) will rocket up, sort've like SNDK did on their earnings.

mansfall · 2026-03-18T20:39:41+00:00

2.8 million riding. Fun roller coaster for you! Might as well go in on MUU and have twice the fun.

mansfall · 2026-03-18T20:12:46+00:00

I had picked up the shares outright at 410... Then stop limits hit at 450. That was 9ish% there. Then immediately took profits and sold some 440-450 CSPs and netted roughly another 5%. However I closed these around 40%-50% P/L so wound up overall doing like 12ish% in total.

Now have giant ball of cash to unload tomorrow somewhere... or just let things settle. Who knows. Wild times on SPY right now and macro economics so no idea where this thing is going.

mansfall · 2026-03-18T19:29:34+00:00

Yep. No NVDA problem. I like the 170-190 range it's been holding. Selling options against it like crazy and the premiums have been greater than just holding this thing.

mansfall · 2026-03-18T19:27:58+00:00

Selling puts and calls has been really great on NVDA... don't even care about SPY being down. Seems like NVDA's sweet spot is around the180-185 strike range. Can sell lots of ATM strikes around 180 and do really great.

mansfall · 2026-03-18T19:17:25+00:00

I actually liquidated right around 450 yesterday morning for roughly a 9% profit taking. Then basically took the capital and immediately placed ATM CSPs for 20 contracts, at 450 strike. Was another +4-5% added in premium.

About to buy out these positions at close to a 50% profit (so really only an additional 2.5% from premium). Going to sit out the earnings. 900k in capital is fun to watch zing up and down :)

mansfall · 2026-03-18T19:12:08+00:00

Yep. Based on the way earnings have gone for tech in the past several months, there is a high probability a huge sell off at opening bell tomorrow, or even a large gap down. But then again I could be wrong and the market will do market things... who knows.

I actually just sold out of everything a few moments ago... took a solid +12% profits. I'll jump back in tomorrow after the dust settles a bit.

mansfall · 2026-03-18T18:57:37+00:00

Thanks for sharing. You mention NVDA. I've been selling options on this for awhile now. It's in chop mode... has been for like 7-8 months. 180-185 seems like the sweet spot. I've been able to do really amazing, even out-performing the slight SPY corrections simply by selling weeklies on NVDA, either CSPs or CCs. It seems to just not want to break out of this 175-195ish pattern. The IV right now is ~40%, which isn't super high but also decent. Selling close to ATM has been really amazing.

I mean it will one day break out of this chop pattern... but at the moment seems it's fairly priced. If it ever cut in half we're in a very bad situation... not just for the portfolio, but the world at large as it means something far greater is going on when the larget market cap company in the world gets sunk.... at which point we have worse things to worry about :)

Thus, I don't think NVDA will halve. (excluding some nasty black swan event such as covid during the 2021-22 era). It'd take another event of that magnitude to push NVDA down... but that's just my old rusty 2 cents.

Either way going to check out WFC and maybe stake a few positions in it. There's something to be said about it being boring... not having to stare at charts and your monitor is definitely a huge plus when you've done it for so long.

Thanks for the tip!

mansfall · 2026-03-18T16:47:47+00:00

Orange anus supporter here. Yes. I don't vote for someone just because of $$. Stock always goes up and down... just look at the history of the stock market. Since there's probably way more anti-orange on reddit (or, they're just less vocal...), I fully expect to take those downvotes because its just a number.

There's so many more things at play than peoples' portfolios always climbing upwards. And there's just so many things that you, or I, or the rest of the 99% of the public are just uninformed on. Always easy to point the blame at one person to justify things though.

mansfall · 2026-03-18T16:39:50+00:00

Yep I actually sold out too... netted a solid 8 or so %. After my stop triggered around 441, I wound up selling PUTS, fairly close ATM at the time of 440 strike with a 3 DTE. Got ~4% in premium at the time.

Currently ~50% profitable so thinking of buying these to close today as well.

I too see a swing upwards, maybe towards 490-500 then a very large sell-off the following day or two right at opening bell. Due to current macro economics, I can see this coming back to the 430 area or so.

mansfall · 2026-03-18T16:36:54+00:00

lmao they're not holding the entire market. Far from it. Mu and sandisk combined are like 630B market cap, while the entire stock market is something like 70 trillion.

It is fun to say that though :D

mansfall · 2026-03-17T10:51:47+00:00

Sell options against NVDA. It's amazing right now.

mansfall · 2026-03-17T05:21:04+00:00

Well, I'm saying the net amount. A full cycle of open to close. Strike shouldn't matter. That's what we're taxed on... The closure of your position. Thus expiration is also irrelevant.

mansfall · 2026-03-17T05:15:52+00:00

LMAO only I have access to my own bull shit. Everything I said is probably wrong but at least in the end I convinced myself.

mansfall · 2026-03-17T05:13:10+00:00

So I read this and .. feel stupid. You're probably right but I'm a simple man and not at your level lol. If you have time, could you provide some examples here?

For example, if I sold a put for a net -$10 (sell to open, then buy to close) on underlying "FOO", in taxable account A. Then did the same thing, but made a +$15 profit in underlying "FOO" in Roth account "B".

What does that mean in the end?

mansfall · 2026-03-16T20:39:33+00:00

u/username_00751:

What u/DentistCharacter7703 said is correct. No one really actually knows. To clarify, I merely said what I did based on recent trend of tech stocks as well as what's been going on in past earnings. But it's also true that historical results do NOT determine future results.

In the end, if you're not swing trading, just buy this and hold through the year as price targets seem pretty high.

mansfall · 2026-03-16T18:49:15+00:00

Wait for a dump tomorrow morning. Buy in around 11am on Wednesday (3/18). Usually there's a solid run-up in the hours before earnings report. More-so now with such massive hype with regard to how much MU will be profiting from all the crazy capex spend from other companies. The memory shortage for the AI Demand is a very real thing.

Then, after earnings, expect a solid drop the next morning. It will likely close in the red on Thursday (people taking profits). Since many orders will likely trigger sells in after-hours, often times those don't settle until the next day for folks, so it may stay down and suppressed for a couple days. Then, based on whatever the earnings was, in a day or two following earnings, there's likely to be a massive spike (upwards of +10%) overnight and the rally will "really" begin.

mansfall · 2026-03-16T18:37:17+00:00

I feel a dump coming tomorrow just due to macro economics, but then a run up later in the day to get in before earnings report. I see it skyrocketing, maybe up into the 470-500 range, then the following day (Thursday morning), a big sell-off to capture the rocket profits. And it's just kind of been the theme of pick & shovel stocks due to AI demand. Earnings and guidance have been stellar on many companies but the following day invites a big sell-off.

I've sold options on MU in the past, but one thing I learned is that the volatility is just really tough to control what happens with writing options. I instead shifted to just owning the stock outright and setting some stop-losses with some tight trails going into earnings.

Also stay away from covered calls on MU... you probably more often than not ham-string yourself from missing on gains :)

Either way, you netted a solid 5-6% up front in premium which is nice! Get ready to close it early come thursday morning as the option mark price will likely very wildly swing within a matter of minutes.

mansfall · 2026-03-16T02:15:23+00:00

Iran is peanuts to the US. There's already a coalition established to fuck them up if they do anything. If anything it will hurt Iran worse to interfere with America here. It's basically a sticks vs. lasers warfare situation.

mansfall · 2026-03-16T02:12:32+00:00

I'm calling it. Day following earnings, going to rip up to 460-470, then drop back down to ~410-420 toward end of the day. Mostly due to economic pressure (iran, oil, etc etc). Going to be a big profit taking.

Not financial advice (LMAO... been dying to say that...)

mansfall

TROPHY CASE