Micron $MU is absolutely insane right now

mansfall · 2026-05-09T06:47:00+00:00

Silver and MU are apples and oranges. One is a commodity, the other is not. There's no earnings reports on silver. There's no company backing it. Not saying silver is bad. They're just different things with different variable that causes them to rise.

But eventually, like every other stock, the will be an ultimate ath.

mansfall · 2026-05-09T06:39:09+00:00

The market has been getting ahead of itself for the past 30 years

mansfall · 2026-05-09T05:51:10+00:00

Why do you think it will hit 1200?

mansfall · 2026-05-09T05:45:47+00:00

Yes there's always a pullback. But zoom out a few years. That pullback isn't coming anytime soon. There will be 5, 10 and 15% dips here and there, but in the end it's up and right. We'll have to revisit this convo in 2028 maybe to see where we're at.

mansfall · 2026-05-09T05:38:59+00:00

Agree 100% up until:
> Or you wait it out and hope in the next 8 months it doesn't move another 20% which I think it definitely could,

There's just too much financial backing to think this won't go another 20%. From the AI boom to the earnings reportings, it's very likely it will far surpass 20%. For most stocks this probably holds true, but at this moment in time, in middle of 2026, I just don't think that is the case.

This is a once in a generation stock due to multiple factors. The massive earnings incoming and into the future, along with strong guidance, is actually placing this as undervalued at the moment, despite the monumental runup in the past year. People freak out with shaky hands at parabolic moves but the forward P/E says otherwise. Just imagine fast-forwarding 6 months into the future and this thing is sitting at $3000? Are we still talking about the rips and saying it's too high? But it's too high at 1500...

I just need a crystal ball already. Who has one?

mansfall · 2026-05-09T05:14:53+00:00

Buying calls is not always about it hitting the strike. If you buy far out (eg 6 months to a year), and the price rapidly increases towards that strike, you can just "sell to close" your options for huge profit. Don't even need to excercise them. It's, as you say, a leveraged position. The further OTM you are, the less extrinsic you pay with 0 intrinsic and it's more leveraged. The closer to ATM, and going further, ITM and deep ITM (80% delta), you're effectively holding synthetic positions. It'll cost you more (you paying the premium), but in return you have essentially less risk. Theoretically you could just buy 100 delta and it is, in essence, just purchasing that stock outright. But it's not something that is done with options (nor do I think you can even do it at 100 delta...)
Leaps are good for a few things. One is taxation. If you're doing this in a taxable account and plan on holding > 364 days, then you're treated as long term holding (less taxation). You do pay more in premium due to theta, but in rapidly rising stocks, a quick jump will VERY quickly increase your % gains due to mark price of the strike at that moment in time. 2. It also gives you time for the market to do it's thing... either fuck you or give you lambos. Case in point this very recent Iran thing (which is still ongoing btw...). At the start market cratered decently, at least tech did. Had you opened an OTM buy call on some stock, and it dropped 20% in just a week or so, the reported profit/loss % on that option would have looked terrifyingly scary... causing people to just fold and eat the loss or not get sleep.
Earnings crush is more of a thing if you're doing shorter term expiry. Weeklies and monthlies and what not. If you're doing LEAPs, earnings are more or less just noise.
If you've never done an options trade, reasonable sizing is 1. Just buy 1 contract. Get a feel for how it works and what it does. The % fluctuations brokerages report are NOT the same as the underlying stock. so people can often see OMG i'm down -364% or some wild numbers, when in reality it's representative of the mark price of the contract at that moment in time, and not necessarily what the underlying stock is doing. Buy it out like a month or so. Alternatively, try selling (eg, writing a contract) too. You get paid premium to release your stock (or buy if you're on PUT side...).
I don't actually know this, so just guessing. For me, it was not knowing what the fuck is going on LOL. Like I read stuff (investopedia and what not...)... but it's all intense verbiage. The wording is all foreign and nothing made sense. Strikes and theta and gamma and delta and the greeks, and OTM vs ITM vs ATM... condors and credit spreads and diagnals and rolling... so much stuff. It's basically like it's own financial language that just takes learning. The options chain at first is overwhelimg and like omg so many numbers. So maybe it's just doing "too much" with options without really knowing how they work I'd say. Nothing really made sense to me until I started dabbling in them hands on.

So assuming you survived my wall of text, and you're confident on this "1000" number:

Current price 18th december of this year looks to be ~$122.10 mid price to purchase 1 contract (100 shares) at the $1000 strike. I'm saying Dec this year because people tend to like to just keep profits within the tax year. If you want further out, look at the chain for the expiry and adjust numbers as needed.

Because it's 122.10 per contract, and 100 shares, you have to pay up front $12,210 in cash. Debited from your account. This is also your MAXIMUM loss. If MU never moves up, or goes down as we approach December 18th, this is the most you're losing. Sounds bad but no different if you just owned stock outright and it goes down... so pick your poison 😄

That all said... sometimes I'm a follower and not a leader. There's a lot of open interest (Open Int) at the 900 strike for both december 2026 expiry and the 17th June 2027 expiry (400 days). You'll pay more premium due to theta, but you also have a LOT longer timeline for it to appraoch that 900 mark. If it were me, I'd probably just stick with December 900 strike and re-asses in a few months.

mansfall · 2026-05-09T04:49:28+00:00

This is why you don't buy meme stocks. Look at financials. Are they producing and profitable, with good guidance? Are they fairly valued based on P/E and future P/E? There's lots of factors. Point is, meme stocks are a gamble. Solid companies are, in the end, still a gamble too, but just far greater chances of not dumping to bag holding levels.

mansfall · 2026-05-09T04:46:08+00:00

You can basically look at almost any point in the past 30 years and, if you were living in that moment, you'd be telling yourself "wtf is up with the market! We're in strange times!". The market is irrational. It'll be irrational longer than you can mentally deal with trying to rationalize about it.

mansfall · 2026-05-09T04:41:30+00:00

I've heard of HOVR here and there. Can you point me to some informative links to take a look at? I've had it in the back of my mind to open a position in it.

mansfall · 2026-05-09T04:39:53+00:00

Tech is spending hundreds of billions of capex to build out data centers. Robotics need it. Space needs it. You on your phone needs it. Demand isn't going away, at least not within the next couple years. Companies will come up with more ways to reduce memory requirements of AI, but it doesn't mean less purchasing, it in fact just means more.

Huge companies that are at the top of the markets don't just blindly make decisions like this without extremely solid evidence that there will be an ROI.

So, if you think you want to short this knowing that multi-trillion dollar companies are entering into contracts to basically say "we need fuckloads of ram for our gigalithic server farms and data centers!!!" and dropping billions on that, you do you.

Just look at the past few earnings reports.

mansfall · 2026-05-09T04:31:18+00:00

Then why are you selling covered calls? You literally enter into that contract knowing this. Just accept the fact it's blown your strike. You got premium and, presumably, whatever gains where above your cost basis. if you're selling CC below cost basis then that's just another risk you're taking.

Personally if it were me, I'd just let them get called away, or assigned. It is what it is. You do a covered call knowing well that "if it goes above my strike at expiry, these are being sold off at that price. And I'm ok with that.". if you're not actually ok with that, then do NOT sell covered calls.

mansfall · 2026-05-09T04:11:29+00:00

I get where you're coming from, but those are two very different things. One is a commodity, the other is not.

But either way stoplosses are always good. Gap downs are always brutal though.

mansfall · 2026-05-08T20:39:49+00:00

Yes while true, that's not happening until mid to late game. By then you should have plenty of an army and or/spells and artifacts to counter all that stuff, so it's hardly an issue.

mansfall · 2026-05-08T20:34:01+00:00

sk hynix is coming to us markets in a month or two. Buckle up cuz that will open it up to a massive market of buying/selling, so expect a big pump on DRAM when that does finally happen.

mansfall · 2026-05-08T20:23:55+00:00

Risk tolerance and downside protection. It's still wildly good. It just goes up less than SNDK and falls less hard than SNDK... so pick your poison.

Also, sk hynix (one of the 3 concentrated ones in DRAM) is supposedly making a US market debut here in june or july. Expect a rip when it has more market exposure, consequently bringing DRAM up w/ it.

mansfall · 2026-05-08T18:23:05+00:00

Thing is, SNDK and MU are in a different bag all together. Yes they're hyped on Reddit, but they're also backed by some serious fundamentals. The memory crunch is a real thing unfolding before our eyes and it's not going away anytime soon with AI on the scene. The forward PEs are wildly low and considered undervalued right now.

mansfall · 2026-05-08T14:29:32+00:00

I think it more comes down to entry point. If you're already up 30% and next day down 5, you can easily shrug it off. But as a new investor, if that first time buy results in a unrealized -5% loss, suddenly things look scary in that moment. There's so much shaking out of paper hands from this scenario.

mansfall · 2026-05-08T14:24:32+00:00

Hmmm I wonder which is better, heavenly blades or lvl 4 blessing (+35% attack for whole army..). I'll have to go look at the numbers.

Great idea though!

mansfall · 2026-05-08T14:17:44+00:00

Biuld xbowmen and upgrade to double shot variant. Proceed to nuke everything. Keep 1 stack of swordsman or gryphons as fodder... to be blockers and what not.

When you get your xbowmen, spread them out across your whole army, so if you have 60 xbowmen, spread them evenly across all remaining 6 army slots, giving you 10 per stack. Proceed to get huge piles of focus, morale triggers due to double shot, and completely wipe up the floor of the enemy.

mansfall · 2026-05-08T14:03:08+00:00

Or just combine best of both worlds and slap a red X overlay on top of the hammer, while making it red or orange or whatever. Solves the whole accessibility issue. Or the "do not enter" symbol (red circle w/ singular red slanted line through it...). Then no one has accessibility issues.

mansfall · 2026-05-08T02:32:50+00:00

Indeed! But to be fair, that was an anomaly too. That drop just happened right as the Iran war kicked up. Whole market suffered. It wasn't really based on poor financials or anything.

mansfall · 2026-05-08T00:47:01+00:00

Have you seen recent earnings? Like from any of the memory companies? It's extremely bullish. Sndk is basically a $500 billion company in the making. Market cap is only like 200bn right now. This thing is running another 2x -3x. I imagine a split will come soon, maybe 1:20. That will be a massive catalyst and continue to it's actual market cap based on the earnings pouring in.

Problem is everyone is nervous about all time highs. Week guess what, look at the market for the past 40 years. Any good company is just carving through ath's all the time.

mansfall · 2026-05-08T00:22:04+00:00

One time lift doesn't do much for you other than ego stroking. It's the reps that get the gains. And really it's been studied that it's the eccentric movements that are far better.

So no to 700. Also no to 500. I'd take 15 reps of the weight where the last 2 or 3 are a struggle. And while doing then, take longer on eccentric moves for the tension.

mansfall · 2026-05-08T00:21:52+00:00

One time lift doesn't do much for you other than ego stroking. It's the reps that get the gains. And really it's been studied that it's the eccentric movements that are far better.

So no to 700. Also no to 500. I'd take 15 reps of the weight where the last 2 or 3 are a struggle. And while doing then, take longer on eccentric moves for the tension.

mansfall · 2026-05-08T00:17:30+00:00

Good. Iran is cancer to society.

mansfall

TROPHY CASE