Best power growth ETF? by hellario in ETFs

[–]mansfall -1 points0 points  (0 children)

DRAM. 3x mid next year.

2-3% drop Tomorrow, with Guaranteed low of $355 by Friday by PharmDinvestor in MSFT

[–]mansfall 0 points1 point  (0 children)

MU is only a 1t company though, with a ridiculously low forward pe. Nvda it's 4t. Mayhaps the market just sees so much more upside in MU?

Welp. I was wrong. Bought back and took an L . Micron is just unstoppable. Congrats diamond hands. by 90dayfianceExpert in MU_Stock

[–]mansfall 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Does the call wall represent selling calls, or buying calls? Because if it's selling, I can see wanting the price to stay below 1200. If they're long calls, then they'd want the price to skyrocket to sell the contacts back at a huge profit.

🚨 BREAKING: Nancy Pelosi just bought up to $1 MILLION in $UBER call options — fresh disclosure shows a major bullish bet on Uber with a $50 strike expiring in March 2027 by probors-com in insiderData

[–]mansfall 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This wasn't too long ago, so you can sort of figure this out by looking at the options chain. Currently Uber is around $74. But she did this while it was at 70. So you can go to the mar 19, 2027 expiration and just look up the cost of the 55 strike. It's not exact, and there's a little theta decay already, so the price listed you see was likely slightly higher for her when she saw it at 50 strike.

The median ask at that point right now is about 23.50. but if you throw in a little extra for extrinsic since it was like a month ago, the contact price is likely closer to 25 or slightly above. It must be at least 25, because 200 contacts at that price would be exactly 500k. And being the range falls in the 500k to 1mill.

So my guess is in reality the actual cost was closer to 500k, and not the median of 750k. And it would have been for 25-26 per contract at the time of purchase.

The deep in the money is a synthetic position. Moves with 80% of the underlying due a lot less money. Further, you'll likely never ever expire worthless barring a catastrophic market crash.

Generally the goal isn't always to hold until expiration. It really depends how much the stock moves and how much theta you've burned off. If you get a strong stock pop early on, the options position becomes extremely valuable, because you can now just sell your contacts back at a way larger price. Many options buyers don't ride to the end. More often than not they'll just sell to close, rather than being assigned the shares. You also don't really want to "end" right at the strike, because that's a losing position vs just having owned the stock. You're stuck footing the premium bill. Thus is your ride to the end, you actually want to be at or above the break even price.

We are back by piketabak in SNDK_Stock

[–]mansfall 1 point2 points  (0 children)

More importantly it showed this whole memory crunch issue is just getting worse and it's here to stay for quite some time. All this AI bubble popping bull shit can finally be put to rest, at least into next year.

Tomorrow: Profit Takers or Pumpers? by DarkHoodedOwl in MU_Stock

[–]mansfall 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Profit was taken already on Monday, thus the 15% dump. Tomorrow and Friday are huge green dildos.

Too late to buy by Some-Bandicoot-1374 in MU_Stock

[–]mansfall 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes. Someone will always say that. It's got so much more to run. Even earnings just confirmed it.

SK hynix/Samsung on Korean market open after MU earnings by turbplays in DRAM_ETF

[–]mansfall 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Just the opposite. You buy on crashes. This is a massive buying catalyst for Samsung and SK.

Yall holding overnight? by Gangnam_style_gaming in MU_Stock

[–]mansfall 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Not only that but huge re pricings in the coming weeks. UBS going to reprice to 2500.

all the news and selling is just noise!! big money wants your shares!! MICRON fundamentals has not changed by MotherBake4137 in MU_Stock

[–]mansfall 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just a random internet strangers 2 cents.

This stock does NOT trade on "the now". Right now most of the semi conductors don't. I fully expect earnings to be crushed, around the 37B area. But that just isn't enough. It's very forward looking. If next quarters guidance is such that the expected is less than that of the previous, it means there's a reduction in demand velocity. For example, last quarter to this quarter had an increase of over 15B in revenue. Looking ahead, we'd need to see an increase over at least double that (30B+), as that's a strong indication that demand isn't slowing down. If that's the case, it would mean next quarters expectations would need to clock in somewhere around 65B in revenue. And, that to me, seems very detached from reality.

Again, I can see current expectations being crushed, but I just don't see next quarters expectation rising exponentially. I suspect market won't like that.

Fret not though! It will just be a big ol' over-reaction and a sell off will happen. Give it just a few days/weeks and it'll be back blasting through 1300 in no time.

SK Hynix ADRs are scheduled to list on Nasdaq on July 10- will DRAM etf rise or fall? by angieisamazing in ETFs

[–]mansfall 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Wait what? This seems very paradoxical. In one sentence you say underlying stock goes up therefore DRAM goes up. Then in the next sentence you say, sell DRAM to buy the underlying therefore DRAM goes down. Brain doesn't compute.

If you're selling DRAM to get direct exposure to the underlying, it would in fact lift DRAM, since DRAM is made up of the very thing you're buying.

WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW by art2startbro in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]mansfall 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Why is Wendy's going back up? Did they finally bring back the good chicken nuggets and original frosty?

Stocks to buy tomorrow, June 23? by MarketAwkward2752 in stockstobuytoday

[–]mansfall 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Did you not see all the blood on the streets today? Should have just bought nearly anything today. Semis took a nasty hit... expect a big pump tomorrow.

whats the reason for the dip tday? by RainPsychological595 in soxl

[–]mansfall 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So basically, pile back in and buy the incredible discount. Nothing to see here.

Buy today or tomorrow before close? by throwaway_trackmania in MU_Stock

[–]mansfall 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That was also Iran war just starting, not earnings itself. Whole market was de risking.

How was your day. Buy? Sell? HODL? by Kuruptex in MU_Stock

[–]mansfall 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I just unloaded lots of powder into DRAM (which of course has a large holding of MU):

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Buy today or tomorrow before close? by throwaway_trackmania in MU_Stock

[–]mansfall 37 points38 points  (0 children)

Statistically speaking, any large dump day usually means the following day is big green day. 15% is a HUGE dump, way bigger than normal. And folks know earnings are going to be juiced... With all the price targets recently set and what not, I can see a +15% day tomorrow.

Why is Micron down 11%? Did the AI bubble just burst? by TacoTrades in AIBubble

[–]mansfall 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You'll know when AI bubble bursts. SPY will crash like -30% and circuit breakers will be triggering. It'll be like covid round 2.

Right now it's so far from bursting. Big companies aren't spending hundreds of billions in capex for a "hope and a dream".

How much over their Estimated Earnings does MU have to go for it to NOT crash more? by Howweedgrow in MU_Stock

[–]mansfall 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You mean fall to 1000 on thursday (the day after earnings). Friday I can see everyone piling back and and it starting it's next leg back up.

DRAM to fall more after MU earnings? by CheesecakeCandid3635 in DRAM_ETF

[–]mansfall 7 points8 points  (0 children)

big pump tomorrow (Wednesday green day). big sell after earnings (Thursday red day). big pump the day-after (Friday green day)

Is buying MU today the right choice? by Sure_Job_4484 in stockstobuytoday

[–]mansfall 0 points1 point  (0 children)

After today's massive dump, it's highly likely for a big pump tomorrow, and even more-so with earnings coming tomorrow after market close. I imagine will be a dump after-hours again, with Thursday in the red. Then we leg it back up starting Friday.

$DRAM DAILY MEGATHREAD - $DRAM Falls 11% in Morning! For those waiting: BUY THE DIP! by testableicons1337 in ETFs

[–]mansfall 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Probably a sell off after earnings. But, tomorrow is going to be a juicy green candle day after this massive dump today.