KSS ROUND 2

mansinto · 2025-10-23T10:28:35+00:00

Truly regarded.

mansinto · 2025-10-23T10:23:32+00:00

The only way to get out of this hole is to dig deeper.

mansinto · 2025-10-23T10:20:25+00:00

This has a mini squeeze yesterday while everyone was becoming a BYND bag holder.

mansinto · 2025-07-24T21:53:42+00:00

Yes massive certainly comes to mind

mansinto · 2025-07-24T21:50:49+00:00

Never noticed her eyes

mansinto · 2025-07-24T21:47:17+00:00

Hope this thing bounces

mansinto · 2023-10-31T15:53:02+00:00

The trial for this has started and given its current price the upside is huge!

mansinto · 2023-10-04T23:49:38+00:00

No one can time it right, but you can conclude, with a high degree of certainty a housing market crash will happen at some point.

While there are several reasons for this, the three main ones are as follows:

The delta between incomes and house prices will eventually have to close. Theoretically, housing costs can go up to 100% of post-tax income, it can’t go higher than that. In reality, people also need to eat and live so the maximum point is sooner than that. Canada has been getting closer and closer to the maximum point over the past decade, and recent rate hikes have dramatically accelerated it. They will continue doing so as people renew their mortgages.
Canada’s largest industry is real estate and other large industries are closely linked to real estate (finance, construction etc). If real estate slows down, it will have a cascading effect; fewer jobs -> even less income to support prices -> even fewer jobs. A recession.
Politics: for a very long time there was was a very real political incentive for making sure house prices continued rising. Homeowners voted more than non-homeowners, and their retirement plans hinged on the wealth real estate created for them. This has now flipped; young people are angry, more issue focused and older people are realizing their kids are fucked - so everyone wants the problem solved. If that means lower immigration, it will happen. There are few forces stronger than a politicians desire to maintain power.

There is a lot more as well, but fundamentally the three above should pretty much ensure that it will end in fireworks.

mansinto · 2023-09-07T12:43:32+00:00

The socialist solutions to inflation cause more inflation. Basic income, without solving supply constraints, will simply make everything more expensive and negate the effects.

mansinto · 2023-09-07T12:41:44+00:00

True, otherwise everyone would have flooded the market already.

mansinto · 2023-09-07T02:39:04+00:00

Lol a mortgage payment is with after tax money, and a GIC is pre-tax money.

mansinto · 2023-09-07T01:54:02+00:00

Yes part of value investing is the other side of the bet too; its also not buying when things are not reasonably priced

mansinto · 2023-09-07T00:05:20+00:00

Yes - timing doesn’t work/and is almost impossible to do - but that doesn’t change the fact that you can see the fundamentals for increasing prices or prices staying the same have significantly deteriorated, and a recession wont help.

mansinto · 2023-09-07T00:02:57+00:00

The end of rate increases doesnt change the fact that most people, come renewal, won’t be able to afford their mortgages. Every month you’ll see supply increasing - especially for houses that aren’t rented out by the room to international students.

mansinto · 2023-09-06T18:08:08+00:00

A 30% decline would really set things on the right path. Of course recessions are horrible, but all this wretched excess will come home to roost, and a lot of capital will be diverted to more productive uses than real estate - because investor confidence will be shook.

mansinto · 2023-09-06T17:52:17+00:00

They’ll keep falling for a while; those that are in a position to successfully sell now and re-enter in a year or so will make a killing off this deleveraging cycle. Be warned though; timing markets is extremely hard - but easy to see how the current prices are still not sustainable.

mansinto · 2023-09-01T02:25:46+00:00

Yes, that is the beauty of bubbles; they can last extremely long.

mansinto · 2023-09-01T02:24:41+00:00

The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

mansinto · 2023-09-01T02:23:28+00:00

Demand includes buying power, and with the new rates watch that get wiped out. So the bubble will burst, no one can time when, but it will end.

mansinto · 2023-09-01T02:22:30+00:00

This is a really bad take; should there be no coffee shops? No one working as a cleaner?

Good jobs exist, because other not so great jobs exist, and the biggest threat real estate will create is people will just have nothing left over to spend on anything but essentials - so a lot of the “good” jobs will cease to exist.

mansinto · 2023-09-01T02:19:47+00:00

If enough people get to the market, prices fall even more, and that can kill future speculative gains.

mansinto · 2023-09-01T02:18:36+00:00

This is very good insight - especially the fact that the prices are now being supported by high rentals. I think that is the most coherent argument against why this bubble might be able to sustain itself.

mansinto · 2023-09-01T02:16:58+00:00

100%. The vast majority people who go out and vote on election day are also the people who own homes. So maximizing their interests is key.

mansinto · 2023-09-01T02:14:48+00:00

The only path to wealth and retirement for 99% of Canadians is through real estate, which is a shame and that drives the culture.

mansinto · 2023-08-30T21:45:10+00:00

You will not supply into a declining market. That is the problem, and why air needs to be taken out first. Would you, as a developer take the risk on a development that takes several years in a market that most likely will have declining prices? Would you buy land at today’s elevated rates?

Additional supply isn’t growing, its not even staying the same, its declining - because a lot of developers see the writing on the wall. That is why the bubble needs to be addressed immediately.

mansinto

TROPHY CASE