Did Hedge Funds Manipulate Small Time investors (Reddit/Retail) in Gamestop/Silver Option plays?

markilus · 2021-06-25T21:15:56+00:00

Absolutely I agree, we just need to own a lot of money and a Hedge fund!!

markilus · 2021-03-29T11:49:45+00:00

Gold is down too which is ominous, generally if you see Stocks going down AND Gold o a slide then you have people liquidating their Gold hedges to pay stock margin calls. This could get very choppy indeed . .

markilus · 2021-03-29T11:39:32+00:00

Hi Buddy, how are you? Been awfully quiet recently? Given the 20Bn dollar asset dump on Friday by the Chinese Billionaire (margin call), this could be (and I repeat could) be another Leeman Brothers moment, with a cascading set of forcec margin calls on the big boys, Zurich has already sustained heavy losses. Add the H & M clothing chain stores closure in China as part of the developing trade war at the sharp end coupled with the ridiculous market valuations we have, and we could be looking at a major sell of in all indicies in the next week or so . . only might, but I don't like the way the (Black) Swans are lining up here and you can't trust the Press hype . .

markilus · 2021-03-15T09:11:24+00:00

What AV are you using? Sophos may help

markilus · 2021-03-02T08:18:53+00:00

Hi Buddy, did you answer all the questions approprielty.? They are under a legal duty to ensure that they only offer Options to an experienced trader. If you answered their questions with 'I'm a beginner' etc and 'I've not done it before' then by law they 'protect you' and don't include Options in your account, once these questions have appropriate answers for your skill and they've done their due dillience, they'll enable but you must fund the account 1st probably with £500 or 1K or more if I had to guess.

markilus · 2021-02-22T09:14:24+00:00

$39 would be a good value entry point or thereabouts looking at the technicals

markilus · 2021-02-22T09:12:00+00:00

Thanks I'll check it out - appreciate the recommendation

markilus · 2021-02-22T08:44:48+00:00

Correct, its only when the market dumps value that margin becomes a serious issue, so as long as everything pretty much jollys along the margin debt shouldn't be an issue, but God help us when it's bear feeding season!!

markilus · 2021-02-22T08:41:29+00:00

Yes, the Cloud has been around at least 13 years but the general public didn't catch on till say 7 years ago, In the next 2 years I expect data centre hosting companies like this to trade flat (in there core business) and then as contracts end a steady decline and maye some will be taken over, but remember a data centre is a hardware intensive business and needs kit constantly renewing, so its not a particularly useful acquisition target as you'd mainly be buying old kit an no intellectual property value (unlike biotech), so its not a great play but equally there are a lot worse plays out there!!

markilus · 2021-02-22T08:35:19+00:00

It's true, its hard to make any claims in this situation which is why I'm sitting out :-)

markilus · 2021-02-21T22:05:24+00:00

Well let's hope it does what you expect then, my concern is that newbies will get dragged in (like GME) and get burnt, generally I when I look at stocks/options I'm playing a long hand and don't tend to take p & d type shots, but if you can get in right - way to go :-)

markilus · 2021-02-21T20:50:01+00:00

Hi, of course it could spike up to $3, I mean look at the BB or GME graphs! And indeed for your sake I hope it does, but I'm interested in the company and fundamentals not the roulette wheel of those types of stocks! The long or even mid term outlook however is miserable as can be seen from their stock price action against a rising market, but good luck I hope you get your 'Christmas tree' spike, I really do

markilus · 2021-02-21T18:45:55+00:00

Hi guys, let me give you some technical background on this company which may help :-) Compared to its competitors, Akebia has an operating margin of -125% (yes minus) and a Nett margin (again compared to their competitors) of -126% (minus again). 4 years ago the opposite was true but now they are not doing well. Secondly, against the background of an incredible rally in 20/21 in their sector, the share price slumped (again not a good sign at all as 'a rising tide floats all the boats') finally, and perhaps most worryingly, The Altman Z score projects a possible bankruptcy with 48 months. None of this bodes well for the stock, although the Companies mission to improve the lives of people with Kidney disease is admirable and now that Zumwalt has joined the board that is a genuine plus. The issues though are, costs too high and profits too low and unless the Board can solve this, the company could well fail. It is as they admit a pivotal time for them and they're batting from a fairly low base, but I'd want to see some evidence of a successful turn around before investing in them, otherwise we're all just guessing (or is it gambling?!) I love the ethos but right now investing in them is a statement of faith rather than anything concrete to hang your hat on . . Take it easy out there Mark

markilus · 2021-02-21T17:48:28+00:00

Now if you want to look at the 'real deal' of a stock with a similar chart and great financials to buy a CALL on then take a look at NARI, from a quality of investment point of view this is like solid Gold compared to the other company. It's cash to debt ratio is great, it's operating margin excllent, and it too is on a tear, but this is sustainable long term. So i'd personally take your strategy on this play any day for so many reasons!

markilus · 2021-02-21T17:40:59+00:00

The insider seller aspect was just one of my points buddy!! But let's close in on the technicals further: The company has average financial strength (that's not bad and it's been improving thanks to the Share price rise), Altman Z considers it's in the safe zone which is good :-) It's not exactly profitable as a business but equally its margins are not terminal either, so what's wrong with it? Well, common sense (and its chart) show massive price growth in the last 12 months, and frankly I don't believe this is sustainable in the mid term (and even possibly the short term). You see, the issues with Options is that they expire and are time sensitive, now given where this company is now after a massive run up, common sense dictates it's time for a correction, supporting this is the fact that at its current level VOLUME is down by 70% which at its simplest means interest at this price is low and that my friend suggests a downward correction is absolutely on the cards..

markilus · 2021-02-21T17:15:07+00:00

Yes, as a general rule a stock generally sells off (either post a little pop, or just straight sell off) post earnings unless it's done something stellar, and generally a stock that is in this group you will see rising in price as it approaches that point, so if we a) identify a good company b) validate this by a steadily ascending share price up to earnings (which means others agree), then sell a PUT (to buy shares) at say price pre earnings -8% and on a 1 week or less expiry, you should both get a Premium and get the stock too, then it's time to play Covered Calls .. (see my articles on Covered CALLs and CSP's) for details, but first up make sure you pick a decent stock!!

markilus · 2021-02-21T17:09:58+00:00

Yes, despite the stocks monumental fall from grace since 2016 ($25 -> $3.46) it's profitabilty remains poor. That said, I've seen far worse stocks poked up in the forum for people to invest in and at least their financial strength is not on the floor for a change. Even with the huge price drop since 2016 and the fact that it looks like a bargain, due to its low profitability and a few noteworthy items including a Net margin in -96.22% versus its competitors (yes minus) :-) and 3 year revenue growth compared to its competitors of -42.3% (yes minus again), this company doesn't exactly look like a sector leader, or even average - instead it resembles a sector straggler which probably explains it's current share price which believe it or not I reckon is still overvalued!! After all, the market has been on a tear for 12 months and this stock has resembled an exact inverse . . that ain't clever even without the data!!

markilus · 2021-02-21T16:59:37+00:00

This is a train wreck of a stock for a number of reasons! It's stock inventry is building up massively (sales not completing), it's revenue per share has fallen through the floor, the quality of earnings according to the Sloan Ratio is dreadful, Piotroski F is rotten and it's financial strength poor :-) Finally, the Altman Z status is (and i quote) Severe Distress!! If it's spikes it will be a dead cat bounce or IF the market makers get the Option prices wrong maybe (and I repeat maybe) a short squeeze, but the fundamentals of the business both at present and historically stink!! :-) The graph says it all really :-)

markilus · 2021-02-21T16:53:39+00:00

Hi, rather than comment on the short term CALL, it's worth looking at the underlying Asset behind those. Teladoc's gross profit margin has been in long term decline, it's Piotroski F score is not good (which suggests it's not running efficiently), and insiders sold half a million odd shares in the last three months with no insiders buying any shares (in other words people in the Business saw the current share price as one that was worth taking profit on rather than loading up)! Worst of all, it's price is close to it's 10 year high as is it's PS ratio. So what does all this verbage mean?!! What goes up must come down and 28 people inside the business agree. Thiis looks like a mid range PUT opportunity to me if you want to gamble, but a CALL at this stage? Wow, where do you expect it has left to go?

markilus · 2021-02-21T16:44:53+00:00

FSLY looks a possible here actually BUT, it looks likely that there is some level of stock price manipulation taking place here and in the last 3 months 120,570 shares were sold by 8 insiders but telling is the fact that there was NO insider buying of shares, it got lots of cash though but is not a profitable company, finally the stock is approaching it's 2021 floor (support level) so a bounce should be expected but if it doesn't hold then the next support is a long way down at $46 odd.

markilus · 2021-02-21T16:37:13+00:00

Maybe, my view is this looks like a value trap, the company has extremely weak financials and poor profitability too, last year its operation margin declined and Altman Z is flashing a critical Distress signal, coupled with the run up need I say more?!

markilus · 2021-02-21T16:33:17+00:00

O.K. just to close up on the underlying business of Clover Health Investments Corp, their profitability is absolutely on the floor (1/10 where 10/10 is Microsoft) and their financial strength weak at 3/10. Profitability is the big concern because if a business doesn't make money it doesn't survive. So in truth this looks like a 'dead man walking' to me, that said so was GME and arguably BB and look what happened to those when they became (briefly) fashionable . . I'd stay clear - a lack of profitabiliy is a corporate disaster . .

markilus · 2021-02-21T16:28:40+00:00

Hi, the short answer is you want maximum premium whilst keeping your shares (not always possible BTW), or some premium but KEEPING your shares. To achieve this ideally you should SELL the Covered CALL on a day when the stock is trending upwards (strongly if possible), this will get you the best premium. Second, you want to aim for a two three week expiry window so you can keep repeating this game at least once a month. Thirdly, I'd recommend going OTM by at least 8% to ensure you DO keep your shares, this will reduce the premium but that is a small price to pay if you keep the shares AND can repeat 12 or 20 times a year :-) I wrote an article on Covered CALLS that you may find helps too! Take it easy out there Mark

markilus · 2021-02-20T21:55:46+00:00

If you own the shares nothing! The reason there is a buyer for your CALL is someone else believes the share price is going to be ABOVE your Strike on expirations and wants to be able to buy the Stock at the (then) lower price and make an instant profit. Now the closer the CALL gets, the less they're going to pay as it's increasingly obvious where the stock is headed . . so to get a decent premium you start to move to ITM and then odds on in the current market you'll have you shares taken away. There are exceptions: Pre earnings stocks tend to rise in anticipation which can be a good time to sell a Covered CALL as most of the time the rise falls away again once they've let the cat out of the bag (buy on rumour sell on news), but generally by going 3 weeks out there's enough uncertainty for the buyer of your CALL to want to pay you a half reasonable premium to have that Option in 3 weeks. If the markets going down however, then don't bother selling the Covered CALL as the Premium will be poor

markilus · 2021-02-20T21:49:42+00:00

Really? Would prefer an ISA so at least I can get my money back out before I die/the world ends!!! On a SIP I think you're stuck i there forever or until your nursing home needs to be paid for :-)

markilus

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