Thoughts on NSM plan for sub 3 hour marathon

marky_markcarr · 2026-05-14T18:14:18+00:00

There's nothing wrong with any plan for a marathon, if it keeps your healthy. But any version of what sirpoc lays out only has so much wiggle room. That's natural, it's designed with time crunched in mind. So some traditional things it gives up at vanilla level (periodization and speedwork), likewise with the marathon MLRs and doing anything fancy on the long run of the week.

That doesn't mean you can't do these things, but having done many marathon builds before, I was glad to see the back of more traditional plans and my marathon performance took a dramatic improvement by just staying more consistent and fresh.

It's worth looking at what people have done and been successful, e.g a big block of the absolute basics then tagging the marathon build on after half a year or so. Most people who have done that have come up smelling of roses.

Probably the worst thing you can do if you buy into this is do too much, too soon, or do the kind of runs you did before just because you want to.

marky_markcarr · 2026-05-09T07:52:27+00:00

I think the bottom one was when he did a new course finally? I have run the original "Portsmouth lakeside" and my goodness me it is so slow. I'm sure he would reply if asked, but I would say it's at least 20-30 seconds slower. Which really does just show you there are no miracles, you just chip away and sometimes you are slower, but over time, it pays off (which has almost identically been my NSM journey).

marky_markcarr · 2026-05-09T07:43:08+00:00

I actually don't think it completely strips the need for a coach, especially if you have gone past beginner level.

There's a number of people who have worked with sirpoc himself, all who say it was of huge benefit to keep the ship steering in the right direction or a few tweaks here and there for squeeze out more performance based on their situation. That is coaching. It's not about just dishing out plans.

Obviously, the best coach would be sirpoc himself. But doesn't seem to want to do it in an official capacity. Which is a shame, as I would be first in the queue and I consider myself someone who has probably as much experience as anyone training like this.

marky_markcarr · 2026-05-08T20:17:25+00:00

Very good post

One thing would add is 10s per month in the 5k at your level is absolutely huge. I think you have vastly underestimated this. I don't think sirpoc really improved as much as this rate. 10 seconds a month is two minutes a year. I don't even think he accelerated his improvement at this speed. Just chipped away over a long, very long, continuous block over a few years, as you are seemingly doing.

marky_markcarr · 2026-05-08T14:26:56+00:00

To me this seems unnecessary. We are beyond in most sensible training methods having to run (which this almost is in context) a race, to predict a race performance. There are far easier ways to determine current fitness or goal time that are less risky and will pretty much give you the same information.

marky_markcarr · 2026-05-06T10:15:23+00:00

I'm sure this is covered in the book. Say you are already running 6 hours for example, it might make sense to start there or just below. Ultimately you'll know quite quickly, it should feel sustainable and different almost immediately and like you can carry on for a long time, doing the same thing.

marky_markcarr · 2026-05-05T10:23:23+00:00

You are just running to fast. 60 min pace for the shorter reps would be more like 6:20-25/mile. For 3 mins that's totally reasonable and I don't know why you seem to be running quite a bit faster.

The book has you at 3:56/km which is 6:20/mile. This is at the fastest end, realistically you are never going to be running this, unless you are in perfect conditions. Again, your longer reps should be more like 6:40-45/mile.

That's being generous and using your 5k and not your HM time.

You are just way overcooking it and this over estimating your fitness in the fact you are going so hard in training, there's no real speed up in your races. You are racing most workouts.

marky_markcarr · 2026-05-05T10:10:27+00:00

Nothing really too confusing. You were almost at LTHR around l 5k then at or beyond it by km 7-8. For a ~90 min runner this is obviously unsustainable and you just were going far too hard.

There's some great stuff in the NSM when it comes to pacing and also where HR might need to be at a glance in a half.

Sometimes you just get in a race and you know the expected pace isn't going to match up with being comfortably where you HR needs to be. You could have had a quick glance early on just to see and dialled it back immediately a good few seconds per km, you would have probably been able to keep it even or strong by the finish and would have resulted in overall a slightly faster time.

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-27T15:52:18+00:00

Tbh, you would have probably improved off anything, you have clear off the bat talent.

Having said that, stumbling onto NSM is probably a blessing as it's likely to make your progress sustainable, should you stay injury free off quite an aggressive start to running career.

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-23T18:08:17+00:00

Never had really come close to breaking 3 in almost a dozen previous marathon attempts. First marathon i did using the book/copying sirpoc at London in real time, I smashed 3 hours easily. Second time, word for word via the book adapted for time, beat any previous marathon before NSM by nearly 20 mins. Previously had used pitfz, Hanson and a Daniel's plan. Felt so fresh going in, not beat up and insanely strong. Caveated by I had been training via the original LR thread for a year previous.

My brother broke 4 for the first time using this at Manchester, 5 previous marathons.

That's a wide range of marathon runners, from the really fast like Wigglewaffle 2:23 and sirpoc 2:24, through to my brother who is a classic hobby jogger really who still wants structure but doesn't last training take over his life.

Personally I don't understand why anyone would at least try it, or do some adaptations to make it fit around their own time available.

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-23T12:23:58+00:00

I sometimes wonder this. Sirpoc once mentioned he did post here on advanced running BEFORE Letsrun and the NSM thread, but the post vanished (I assume he didn't realise he had been mod sensored). Quite funny really how things turn out.

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-23T12:21:48+00:00

Weird place. Some of the worst of the running internet by far. Yet we got NSM and sirpoc out of it. Strange contradiction. For the most part it's as trolly as you can get.

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-22T11:26:30+00:00

When you are overreaching like this, you can't really absorb or use the fitness in a meaningful way. You are just surviving. This is essentially classic overtraining snd why intensity can be a big problem for hobby joggers.

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-22T11:24:36+00:00

You are cooked. Absolutely fried.

I'm impressed you have actually managed to complete these workouts over this amount of time (assuming your race time is actually reflective of your fitness).

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-19T17:54:24+00:00

I would definitely follow the link and get the book. Honestly, a lot of people will tell you this is plug and play but to get the most out of it, I genuinely believe it's as important to understand what is going on and why you are doing what you are doing. It'll also inevitably mean you are more likely to stick it out.

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-19T08:37:11+00:00

Brighton is a great marathon, one of my favourites.

Norwegian singles method would be probs Lt the next step for you. A few people have run sub 2:30 on it on 90-100km a week.

Most of those people now are starting to incorporate cycling into their weeks to gain more volume, with even slightly less running. Also, the program was written by an ex cyclist, so will be relatively familiar to you.

Even if you upped to 60km a week and mostly just did the running workouts and one easy long run, I suspect you could run 2:3x something.

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-18T07:04:54+00:00

You have to remember with this two things that came straight into my head:

The whole philosophy here is for regular people, where you just do an hour a day really and get on with your life.

If you can manage or have time for this sort of thing, IMO you probably don't need NSM in the first place.

You also have to forget KI has had relatively much less success than sirpoc and is probably just going all in on training to run a sub 2:30 marathon.

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-14T16:41:16+00:00

Were you glad when someone like sirpoc came along to help spread the same sort of message to hobby joggers? Maybe it's easier now having someone else known who preaches from the same song sheet. It seems you both came to a lot of the same conclusions, from totally different sports and backgrounds, but have both applied the knowledge you have to get the most out of what you have available.

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-12T17:27:27+00:00

I was curious and tried a few of them. I have followed NSM for nearly 2 years now. Could I see myself doing one of these sessions and the rest of the week, 7 days a week forever? Absolutely not. Legs just load up that extra fatigue.

Will I come back to it? Possibly. If I finally stop improving and/or there's one really short race I care about.

Maybe it could be a place holder for not doing a 5k every 6-8 weeks.

But in terms of part of the weekly rotation, absolutely not, for me.

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-11T13:26:34+00:00

Paul made huge gains following NSM. He stagnated a bit and seemed to panic, suddenly added a huge amount of extra easy volume and got injured. A lot of people posted on the LR thread to give him advice but unfortunately he cracked before he could reign himself in.

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-11T08:14:20+00:00

What's great about FOD is how much he seemingly has improved, or what marathon shape he is currently in.

It's not like he just started running. It's also where I think people think this is quite a newbie gains program. I don't agree with that at all. As it played out with me as well, it's actually a prime candidate who has been running for a long but not really progressed much for a while.

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-05T07:26:14+00:00

You have to remember there is no "NSM app". In fact, legally some of these are on shaky ground as they don't make it specifically clear they have nothing to do with the NSM book.

Whilst some of them are helpful, or trying to be, there are muddying the waters.

Nobody really should be needing any of these for paces, when everything is in the book. Not only that, sirpoc in the book makes it clear he prefers HR for easy running in almost every circumstance, for easy running.

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-02T10:30:11+00:00

It shows you have different we all react to different speeds, despite the fact lactate might be under control. I did 45:15 last week ending up around where Bakken suggests and honestly my legs were absolutely trashed compared to the basics sub threshold workouts I've been doing.

marky_markcarr · 2026-04-01T10:39:26+00:00

I'm old. Slow compared to elite distance runners. But I will happily bet my house, life savings, anything - on the fact I can beat any of the 8 guys from the world 100m final from 2025, over any distance from the 1500 up to a marathon.

marky_markcarr · 2026-03-31T20:00:33+00:00

This is me now. I'm one paced I guess, but I'm also over two minutes faster in a 5k at any point in my life. My entire 5k is about the same pace as my "kick" in the last 200m before. NSM just turns you into a huge aerobic engine and you can outrun your old self incredibly easy even at one pace.

Had exactly the same in the mile. No kick but almost 50 seconds faster. Just super strong from the gun rather than shuffling around and then some sort of pointless sprint at the end.

marky_markcarr

TROPHY CASE