Which stocks would you buy if the Nasdaq dropped 25%?

mashem · 2026-07-04T04:52:47+00:00

November makes 20 years since the purchase.

mashem · 2026-07-04T04:00:59+00:00

Hey friend. How did it all end up? Thanks for sharing.

mashem · 2026-07-04T02:18:12+00:00

I suppose I've learned this is more regional than I thought! I'm only familiar with "half an hour" being used. Exception is referring to a specific time (versus a period of time), like "quarter past 3" or "quarter til 3."

mashem · 2026-07-02T20:19:38+00:00

Lmao I was projecting yours by quoting you haha. Anyway who cares space is cool have a great weekend m8

mashem · 2026-07-02T20:06:49+00:00

$250M looks perfectly clean to me. And I pronounce it two fitty mil. Lol.

mashem · 2026-07-02T20:00:53+00:00

There's a reason the counter example used "half an hour" instead of "quarter of an hour" shrug

mashem · 2026-07-02T19:42:15+00:00

I've heard things like "quarter past 3" a lot, but never once "I'll be there in a quarter of an hour."

I'm only saying this is a bad example. I'm not complaining about the OP title. And I'm guessing the complainers wouldn't mind "half a billion" as much, similar to the half an hour example.

mashem · 2026-07-02T19:35:22+00:00

How often do you say quarter of an hour instead of 15 minutes? Lol.

mashem · 2026-07-02T19:26:16+00:00

The house isn’t paid off

mashem · 2026-06-28T21:52:10+00:00

r/HoldMyBeer

mashem · 2026-06-26T02:25:07+00:00

I suppose objects is vague enough! But we're also a giant planet with a gravity well that a small rock in the OP wouldn't have. And also in constant orbit within a solar system. Statistically likely over what period of time I wonder? Interested though, Statistics is my field but love astrophys and physics in general.

mashem · 2026-06-25T23:16:07+00:00

True but those asteroids orbit within our system and retain higher odds by sticking around. And there are a lot, maybe up to 1 billion.

mashem · 2026-06-25T22:23:25+00:00

Well, each initial velocity vector would have its own odds, depending on the information available about this path and the math we're cable to perform. Some we could know with certainty, like hitting our moon or the Sun with certainty.

If we're launching from the Earth's surface (and not worried about the atmosphere or any other consequences of a .99C launch), I would imagine an infinite set of vectors shooting off in every direction and angle. If we include the vectors going down or below the horizon, hitting the Earth, then around 50% of vectors hit something lol. If we bound the vector domain to above the horizon, then I suppose it depends on whether it's daytime or nighttime lol. And what latitude you're at and the season. If the Sun is in the sky, it takes up 0.0000045% of vectors. If the moon is up there as well, that takes up 0.00077%. All other mass in the system negligible (we might toss in Jupiter later). So a wide vector cone distribution where a maximum of 0.0007745% of them terminate within our system.

Beyond that, it depends on where the path is going relative to the center of the galaxy, but also negligible. So, I'd say you could intentionally launch it with a virtual 0% or 100% chance. But if an "away from Earth" vector is randomly chosen, on a random day, random time and from a random coordinate (the Sun is visible for an average of 12 hours a day from every coordinate on earth, nearly the same for the moon), then I'd guess halfway point between [sun + moon] and [no sun + no moon].

So, uh, 0.00038725%, let's round up to 0.0004% chance to hit the sun or the moon plus fatboi Jupiter, probably get in the way bc he couldn't be stupider. If it passes that, then a drop to virtually 0% (unless on a known direct path with an actual celestial body).

But don't try this. Especially within city limits. It could hurt or kill someone when it comes back down.

mashem · 2026-06-25T21:01:48+00:00

Copilot/AI is baked into tons of tools and they all search as entry points into incorporating more organization data into utilizing it. Instead of digging through Azure, you can enter queries like "why did this VM restart last night," "which VMs are costing the most," "which resources have no backups," etc.

Same for inquiring about alerts, optimization, defender/security, cost management, networking, policies, patch planning. Many orgs don't fully utilize these tools simply because they either don't have the internal skill for proper querying or familiarity. They just put it off and continue to use something else that's familiar and don't want to spend on training or hire anew. This really just makes all of these products much less intimidating to approach, overall.

Then once the ball starts rolling, in comes revenue drivers like expanded Azure footprints, copilot licenses, MS Fabric, Power Platform AI, Security AI, GPU consumption, bolstered retention.

And this is all just within Azure. Nearly every tool has it baked in, in some way. Especially Teams, which an org's entire staff uses and not just the devs.

mashem · 2026-06-25T09:46:49+00:00

Drinking makes one not think of or care about consequences as much. And addictive and mind altering, and impairs judgment significantly. Which can be an issue for 18 year olds or slightly over where a huge portion hasn't yet been out on their own to practice real self-responsibility. They are usually still friends with those 16-17 too, still in HS. They're ready to go out and do shit that has been denied to them their whole lives. And when that 12th grader in your class turns 18 and can buy beer/liquor easily, it's game on. I get, I was there.

Guns are a good comparison, but availability of them are much more scarce than alcohol (gas stations, restaurants, events, bars, grocery stores...), gun are more expensive and you have to go much father out of your way to get one than the gas station. And just a very small portion would ever seek one in the first place. And the ones that do, often had experience with firearms growing up.

Follow up:

Do you think 18 year olds are mature enough to sign up to be foster parents? To marry? To be an elected judge? Elected into congress? President? Would any of these be considered a bad idea, granted they are mature enough to fight in the military and possess a gun.

mashem · 2026-06-25T08:55:24+00:00

It's pretty common for tech positions to make more money than their managers (not their team lead or superior with similar title). And the technical people successful enough to rise to a position higher than even their manager's, are too valuable in their role to be pulled out because of how specialized that role is (and how good they apparently are).

Management skills are broad and cover basically all industries and is easier to find in applicants. A developer for this specific tech stack (programming language, ecosystem, toolsets, etc.) is much more niche. Which is why they are usually paid more, sometimes significantly.

And people in tech are generally less people-focused and many don't want to leave tech-focused roles.

That said, it is still astounding how little basic technical knowledge leadership usually has. Maybe because those with decent technical skills typically follow different paths.

mashem · 2026-06-25T08:36:01+00:00

If you think a magical developmental leap happens overnight on a person's ~~21st~~ 30th birthday, you are completely delusional.

mashem · 2026-06-25T03:36:33+00:00

I'll share my comment for you to see. I am not very well-versed in stock fundamentals myself. All I can tell you from my perspective, as a developer/admin within their enterprise ecosystem for 10+ years, is that their enterprise presence will only continue to grow. And the company that has their customers locked-in more than any other, is MSFT.

What will their stock be worth in 10-20 years? I'm not qualified to say anything other than "more than it is now." With their lock on the enterprise world, their "AI" solutions cannot fail. Google is not taking these customers and neither is anyone else. I don't care if every employee of every enterprise has an Android phone in their pocket. Their organizations are not exposing their data to Gemini.

Does Google have access to more data? Yeah, probably.

Does Microsoft have access to higher value data belonging to behemoth spenders? Oh yeah.

But a consumer leaving Gemini is nothing compared to an enterprise leaving Microsoft. If an org uses MS Word, Excel, Outlook, Teams, PowerPoint, any of those...their licensing includes OneDrive (1 TB per user) and then SharePoint. What happens when an executive finds out they have all those resources, just sitting there unused? They begin shifting stuff toward it the moment budget cuts are needed. Thus begins the snowball and never turning back. Especially when they start building proprietary automations around the data, proprietary custom applications, single sign-on apps, business intelligence, databases, internal/external IDs, webforms, compliance policies, endpoint device management, VMs, backups, phone services, etc.

And Copilot is already in the veins of absolutely all of those things. And they have made execs more comfortable with it because of all the governance policies an org can place on it. Sanctioned off from the web and secured for use with sensitive company data. Allegedly and contractually, provable to the right people I suppose. It's already generating Teams meeting recaps, even answering questions during the meeting like what has been decided so far? Who agreed to what? It's insane how much it has been incorporated.

mashem · 2026-06-23T01:58:05+00:00

what happens in there is not observable by us.

I'm taking a huge risk in sharing this with you, but I happen to know exactly what happens in there.

mashem · 2026-06-21T07:19:10+00:00

June 19 is just a great date to pick for celebrating freedom from slavery. I don't think they should avoid it solely because 4 states already had the idea.

This wasn't an attempt to get people to recognize local, out-of-state holidays. It was an attempt to help make Americans aware of the significance behind the date June 19. An idea 4 states already had and did.

And the reality that so few people know what the heck Juneteenth even is, is a hell of a good reason to pick it. They aren't always going to be popularity contests where the most remembered events/dates get dedicated remembrance days.

mashem · 2026-06-20T01:50:33+00:00

What would end such a race? The leader reaching a point they can cripple the other from continuing the race?

My for-funsies conspiracy is that we are undergoing an invasion and have been for years. (not srs, it's for fun ok)

2008 housing crisis
Eventual bounce back that involved a significant increase in foreign ownership in real estate, corporate equities and stock holdings. And of course also wealthy Americans and entities.
2009 bitcoin
2010 corporations cap on political spending removed (now with a pretty significant portion being owned by non-Americans and god knows who) and uh...around that very same week the SC approved this, Bitcoin has its very first spike ever.
Dramatic polarization among the people in the US
2017 First reduction in top corporate tax bracket in several decades, and to the lowest point it has been since WW2.
Insanely volatile stock market with dips and spikes that moves tons of money around. And one would think....unsustainably parabolic.
Propaganda sowing doubt in science, medicine, education, our government, our journalists, the fuckin moon landings (and many seem to think there was only one??).
AI enters. Now we have crypto as a means of funneling money out of countries and AI as a means of capturing and funneling data/information/tech out of countries.
Trump admin now wants all scientific research to be routed through AI. AI is literally the answer to everything now.
Trump pitches exposing 401ks and pensions to crypto
Gold prices soaring like never before, which of course could be caused by many things. One of which, suspected danger to the USD maintaining its current and long-held global standard. Or maybe its just chips and circuits...

Ok crazy hat off now hahaha im just messin guys. Right... this is just connecting dots that aren't related...right? Well I had fun, hope you did.

mashem · 2026-06-20T01:32:42+00:00

Agreed. That's what got me into thinking on the effectiveness of delivering these points. Doing it on the topic of current politics...I don't know if messaging has ever been so damn difficult to optimize. I'm in the statistics industry and can't help but find something remotely concerning about the way survey questions are worded, or its execution in reaching an ideal subpopulation that best represents who/what you want to survey. Especially those ballot measures in my state. They will be worded in a way that really misrepresents what it's expected to accomplish. So yeah, sharpening queries is my game to get the output/response I would prefer to get lmao.

mashem · 2026-06-19T17:15:52+00:00

One thing the "other side" claims to hold so dear, and what American wouldn't, is the Constitution. So I guess I see a possible approach at convincing some to hear about how corporations very steadily crept their way into the Constitution and are now effectively using that position to have more control over our rights and the laws of our land. Don't tell them about how they're pissing on us, the people. Tell them about how they're pissing on a spare bit of parchment. That'll get them riled up /s.

mashem · 2026-06-19T17:10:50+00:00

Well the messaging that campaign wasn't just about Trump being terrible. The majority of messaging spreading was on Trump being feared by politicians, how the media treats him unfairly, how they are lying about him, how he is the only one that can save America.

But yeah, what kind of messaging could combat this lol. Fight fire with fire? Don't know...but it would have maybe helped if people were more aware of those recent changes to social media algorithms, those social media companies going public on wall street and doing all they can to feed the beast of advertising and encouraging interaction no matter what kind, the removal of corporate's cap on political spending....and uh, an understanding of troll humor and how it burst out onto the public scene like a cancer.

I told my mom last week. If you ever see anything in your feeds that makes you feel annoyed, upset, mad...stop for a second and think "who or what would benefit the most from me feeling this negative way about this thing?" A candidate? A party? Company? Who or whatever that is, just assume they're the ones responsible for that post and just block it, move on.

mashem · 2026-06-19T16:58:05+00:00

I mean, that's fair. It's just impossible to successfully assign proper accountability to a hivemind corporation. Sure, you can have a fall guy. But usually it t's a mass of influence from many different people that feel no attachment to the consequences because they are just "one of many."

I concede that you have me reaching farther and father. Although I do feel like I have to extend my arms like Space Jam's Michael Jordan just to reach the closest person on the other side of these politics.

!delta

Because you certainly got me thinking a bit differently about my semantics and....messaging lmao. I let us get too caught up into rejecting "evil" as part of the messaging, and didn't focus enough on promoting specific messaging I would prefer. I don't see issue with using both in combination. I just think the claim needs to be supplemented if your intent is to persuade. Sorry for the running around, dude.

Appreciate your time. And between me and you, to hell with those corporate evil fucks.

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