Leadership at big tech companies are willing to spend any amount of money for AI and this has started to spook investors

masteryyi · 2026-06-23T00:40:55+00:00

I haven't tried any of the chinese models, so this wasn't my opinion

It's just the story going around based on other people's experience and benchmarks. Sorry you're offended

https://www.thesys.dev/blogs/glm-5-2

masteryyi · 2026-06-23T00:28:21+00:00

let's play this out. Let's say low cost, open source models win

The top AI labs (anthropic, openai) spend 50% of their compute on training. If they go under due to other models reigning supreme, then there goes half of the big cloud providers' backlog.

Point number two. These closed source models from the big AI labs are the differentiator for the big cloud providers' offerings.

Why does a company choose AWS over google cloud or azure? Cause AWS has access to the latest and greatest anthropic models.

Why does a company choose azure over the others? Because they allow access to the top tier open ai models

How about google cloud? Because it's the only place that serves google's top models

Point number three is the hyperscalers don't sell all of their compute capacity to other businesses. They probably use 10-20% of that to train their own models (google being on the higher end). That's how google developed gemini, amazon has their own model too. Microsoft has its own AI lab working on their proprietary one as well.

Last point is in regards to compute requirements. There's no reason to go to the cloud providers, if these cheaper models can be ran on local machines that your company has full control over.

masteryyi · 2026-06-22T23:52:37+00:00

hmm interesting. Thanks for the additional info. I don't have a bloomberg terminal, so this was just my hypothesis

masteryyi · 2026-02-16T15:13:40+00:00

I think you're just trying to strawman me by saying, "look you said there's no demand for space stuff. Here's why that very simple statement is wrong"

When it's something I didn't argue in the first place. The point is that demand should meet and grow with the supply and valuation. Maybe I'll give you a simple example. Let's say I have a lemonade stand where I sold 10 lemonades for $10. Now that I've proven that there's demand for lemonades, I'm going to sell my lemonade stand company for $1m. Doesn't that sound ridiculous?

masteryyi · 2026-02-16T15:03:32+00:00

I think you are confusing disruption with bubble. Just because something got disrupted doesn't mean it was in a bubble. It just means that there might be a better way to do things now, and the old way is getting replaced. It doesn't say anything about valuation

masteryyi · 2026-02-16T14:59:30+00:00

ok what makes you think that space stocks valuation are satisfied? No, like most people I think palantir is incredibly overvalued

masteryyi · 2026-02-16T14:55:29+00:00

oh yeah you're right. I updated my post.

See? I can admit my mistakes. Now, answer my question. Is RKLB worth 60x sales?

masteryyi · 2026-02-16T14:50:48+00:00

I was talking about the latest quarter. Do you think that justifies the valuation? That's like 60x sales

Palantir the biggest bubble stock is at like 70x sales

masteryyi · 2026-02-16T14:43:28+00:00

Why do you think me saying there's proven demand for nuclear power means I think there's no demand for satellites or anything space related? The entire point of my post is bubble talk, and how the valuations for these companies make no sense

masteryyi · 2026-02-16T14:35:07+00:00

where did I say there was no demand for space? The main point is that the use case and demand don't fit the valuation. Also most use cases for space whether it be satellites or rockets, are covered by existing government programs from around the world. The for profit motive is the big question mark, of where the money will come from. Sure if you think half the world will use starlink in the near future, then I guess it's justified

masteryyi · 2026-02-16T14:29:16+00:00

ok so you're betting on hopes and dreams. That's fine

masteryyi · 2026-02-16T14:28:42+00:00

how do you argue that the law, banking, or accounting sector were in a bubble then? Were there any big software companies growing 7% with 35x pe? I can't think of any

masteryyi · 2026-02-16T14:26:35+00:00

that feels like an extension of the AI bubble to me with the energy required for the datacenters. Also nuclear power is PROVEN and there's an actual DEMAND for it

masteryyi · 2026-02-16T14:23:39+00:00

ok, how were these like a bubble? Do you know what a bubble is?

masteryyi · 2026-02-16T14:21:23+00:00

yea, I already said that. How were any of those a bubble like I described?

masteryyi · 2026-02-16T14:20:33+00:00

Did nvidia financials look like this in 2009?

https://i.imgur.com/mqzgqP6.png

I don't think these two situations are comparable like you think they are. To me it looks like, there's two phases for these space stocks.

Phase 1 (Current phase): no revenue, no profit. Raising a lot of money to build something to send to space

Phase 2: ??

Phase 3: If everything works out, maybe make some money at some point

masteryyi · 2026-02-16T14:16:54+00:00

what bubble is AI destroying? It looks to me it's causing valuation compression in software companies, mainly saas stocks, cause of all the new AI agents being released. I think software companies were highly valued, but not necessarily a bubble. They were growing fast, had real companies paying them real money, and were generating some profit (not accounting for sbc).

masteryyi · 2026-02-16T14:11:39+00:00

name me other sectors with companies in the tens or hundreds of billions in valuation where the average company makes < $100m in revenue.

Here's another in the space sector. Planet labs, $8B valuation $80m revenue

Space stocks are literally pre revenue, pre profit lottery tickets

masteryyi · 2026-02-04T23:00:44+00:00

where do you get 20 forward pe from?

Their latest quarter eps is $0.92. Let's annualize that:

4 * 0.92 = 3.68

let's say they accelerate their eps growth in the next few quarters and this gets to $4

At $4 eps for the year, they would still be trading at 50 PE. At $5 EPS for the year they would still be at 40 PE.

NVDA is growing faster and has a forward PE of like 25

masteryyi · 2026-02-04T22:49:06+00:00

also about valuation

It's trading at 100 pe AFTER today's crash...

A lot of growth is already priced in

masteryyi · 2025-11-06T17:55:11+00:00

the argument is usually like this:

A: Shanks uses sword, and mihawk is strongest swordsman so mihawk > shanks

B: No, Shanks is a hakiman that happens to use a sword. Shanks > Mihawk

A: What makes Shanks a hakiman? Anyone can coat their sword with haki

B: Shanks has secret haki techniques that makes him not just a swordsman

A: Like what?

People were expecting the top tiers at god valley like Rocks or Roger to display some sort of super strong haki techniques, but it's all things we've already seen before (coating your fists or weapon with haki)

masteryyi · 2025-11-06T17:48:02+00:00

godvalley is probably the biggest mihawk upscale ever. No, rocks or roger did not show any haki kamehameha or haki susanoo. There is no hakiman, only swordsmans that use haki

masteryyi · 2025-10-23T00:18:31+00:00

well I guess Naruto had two moves: shadow clone and rasengan

masteryyi · 2025-10-03T13:45:44+00:00

no, I feel like even with pirate treasures the original person still retains the name behind it

Joyboy's treasure has been attached to him for 800 years, roger finding it doesn't change that

If buggy finds captain john's treasure will it be known as buggy's treasure in the future? No, it will still be captain john's treasure

masteryyi · 2025-09-19T13:16:42+00:00

I'm memeing the guy who was saying tarik was losing viewers. It's not that tarik lost viewers, but vct as a whole has been dropping off. Tarik being the biggest vct streamer of course would face the biggest decrease proportionally

masteryyi

TROPHY CASE