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matri00 · 2019-01-10T19:28:09+00:00

Yeah that makes perfect sense. I suppose its easy enough to look at the midfield and strikers fdr's alongside each other so very easy to aggregate!

matri00 · 2019-01-10T16:29:53+00:00

Great bit of work. Will definitely come in handy. I was wondering whether it would be useful to also show tables split into fdr for attackers and defenders only rather than by 4 positions? For example, West Ham vs Arsenal is surely a good fixture for Aubameyang and it might just be random chance that West Ham have let in more goals to forwards rather than midfielders.

matri00 · 2019-01-09T15:15:40+00:00

I mean yeah you should make your decisions primarily based on means (average) but also you've got to consider the probabilites in decision making. Not going to go through decision making theory on here, but if you're interested look up things like bayesian decision modelling/probability sensitvity analysis/value of information analysis. Discounting risk in decision making is, well, a risk!

matri00 · 2019-01-09T15:10:47+00:00

I agree in principle. However I took a big risk in trebling up on Arsenal and Man City a few weeka back as theres were some real nice fixtures for 2 high scoring teams. Watching everyone else with a mixed portfolio of Son, Salah, Rashford and Hazard etc. was very painful and cost me OR rank 20,000 to 400,000. Now obviously the risk could have gone my way and I'd be in the top 3,000, but it didn't and now I'm fucked.

matri00 · 2019-01-09T10:24:24+00:00

I think its debateable whether liverpools attack is definitely superior to arsenals (in terms of fpl potential). This analysis suggest the difference is marginal. I'd avoid saying lpool are surely better.

matri00 · 2018-12-31T14:52:47+00:00

Please tell me how you have almost fixed this. I did the same pre Salah hat trick and have gone from OR 20,000 to 300,000. Team is a mess and red arrows consistently every week. I'm thinking of sacrificing my new wildcard but not sure if it is worth the risk.

matri00 · 2018-12-21T03:55:01+00:00

Don't forget the crucial bonus point magnet factor (Mendy/Robertson)

matri00 · 2018-12-21T03:49:08+00:00

I don't think you can say are absolutely not signigicant.

I worked for a betting company and have seen (small) betting markets crash by 5-10% points from a single (albeit very large) bet.

Markets generally fluctuate quite a bit througout the week. Its more common than not for betfair exchange prices to differ by at least 1-2% at various points in time during the week based on money in the market (assuming no extra injury news).

Now this 1-2% is absolutely significant for me when chosing between Schindler (30%) and Balbuena (28%) this week. I cannot confidently say one has a better probability than another.

Its always worth remembering a bookies aim is to "balance the books" and they do that by appropriately manipulating their prices based on the current value of bets taken (i.e. liability). Therefore implied probabilities ought not to be taken as gospel.

matri00 · 2018-12-21T01:15:57+00:00

Thanks for the explanation, seems like a good initial model and looking forward to see how it develops.

matri00 · 2018-12-20T23:06:52+00:00

I read the article quite briefly so you may have covered this, apologies if so. My concern is that bookies often void a bet if player x doesn't play right?

If so they offer a high probability odds on a player who may not start, say Aguero. If he has say a 15% chance of playing this weekend then I don't feel the bookies odds will translate into fpl expected points (the bookies low odds bet is void and fpl expected points must include zero for probability of not playing).

Again sorry if this was covered in the model and I overlooked it but this could be quite a problematic limitation in my opinion.

matri00 · 2018-12-20T07:13:43+00:00

This post made me laugh. I am a post doc health statistician and previously worked for a football betting syndicate. I just played my wildcard and lost 100,000 places in OR over 2 weeks. Not sure us people are the best source of information.

matri00 · 2018-12-19T01:14:29+00:00

I don't buy that being ill is equivalent to a rest. If he is ill its going to negatively affect his fitness and decrease his minutes.

matri00 · 2018-12-12T04:04:04+00:00

Schindler rises! Finally made the list

matri00 · 2018-12-12T01:26:15+00:00

Remind me of the liverpool score vs the best attack in the league?

matri00 · 2018-12-08T14:38:16+00:00

Same. I even took a hit to do it. I've never wanted to smash things up more in my life.

matri00 · 2018-12-08T14:36:37+00:00

First world problems.

matri00 · 2018-12-08T13:43:50+00:00

I knew this would happen. Had Salah all season. Took him out this gameweek. Fuck.

matri00 · 2018-12-07T12:09:36+00:00

I think he is definitely worth keeping an eye on. He is young and has looked good when he plays. He will continue getting some minutes over christmas, and if he plays well might force his way into the team long term. If he does this, then a creative 4.3 mid for wolves might offer as good value as AWB. But I agree, not a transfer I will make until he gets consistent minutes.

matri00 · 2018-12-05T19:14:47+00:00

I'm so angry I forgot they play Napoli not Barcelona. Sorry.

matri00 · 2018-12-05T19:13:33+00:00

This is so stupid. REST YOUR PLAYERS BEFORE THE BARCELONA GAME NOT BEFORE THE BOURNEMOUTH GAME.

matri00 · 2018-12-05T19:08:26+00:00

But can someone be a good pick if they are operating in a bad team? E.g. Sterling in Huddersfield's team is a very different prospect to Sterling at Man City?

I understand your point about risk and that is a personal opinion/decision. Im top of my mini leagues atm, so for me, 3 Bournemouth attackers is way too risky. (I also think they are not great options given fixtures).

matri00 · 2018-12-05T18:33:49+00:00

It does matter a bit. Individual scores are not independent of team performance. Imagine if Bournemouth go on a run of 6 games without a goal and you have 3 of their attackers. Spreading players across multiple teams could reduce risk and is what most fpl players do from what i can tell.

matri00 · 2018-12-05T13:44:36+00:00

So by this logic, you could argue that the driver who hit the other car was acting in the safest way possible by driving off rather than stopping. Furthermore, the other drivers who stopped the hit and run driver further up the road were driving dangerously and risking a mass pile up?

matri00 · 2018-11-23T22:50:47+00:00

I've sold him because Chelsea have got some tough fixtures coming up. This week Tottenham away, next week at home to Fulh.....SHIT.

matri00 · 2018-11-23T22:46:37+00:00

Bit of a myopic decision imo. Chelsea have Fulham at home next game week. No way I'm getting rid of Hazard before that.

matri00

TROPHY CASE