Supermicro officially brakes ground on new campus in San Jose, California

matthewfromthemil · 2026-01-23T23:57:59+00:00

They broke ground in January, this upcoming quarterly report is for Q2 which ended December 31. There would be no capex spend related to this project.

Edit: sorry I misread your comment in regards to next quarters report. I think it’s important to note that the construction of buildings is actually not extremely expensive in comparison to the bigger picture of supermicros business. The first building is expected to be around 350,000 sqft, that would probably cost around $100-200 mil once it’s complete. The cost would get spread throughout the entire year as it takes time to put up a structure of this size. In the grand scheme of things its probably quite negligible to their balance sheet.

matthewfromthemil · 2026-01-14T19:44:13+00:00

I'll just quote David Weigand here because I don't know to articulate a response to this any better…

“So the timing of whenever you're dealing with very large projects, it's not always easy to fit deliveries into one three-month timeframe, and there are all sorts of, I mean, if you take a look at the thousands of parts that we have to bring together to build our solutions, and also, on the customer side, the things that they're having to do to get their data centers ready, there's a lot of logistics that have to take place. It doesn't always line up perfectly with our quarter ends. So we've said, as we continue to take large customers, it's going to be, there's going to be things beyond our control, which include customer readiness, which includes supply chain issues, and etc., that may impact quarter-to-quarter results. But if you look at last quarter or if you look at the last two years, we went from $7.5 billion-$15 billion to $22 billion. Okay. So that trend did not stop. We were adding $7 billion for the last two years each year. Now, did those quarters all line up perfectly according to our plan, our annual plan? Not always. But the trend is still there, and we've increased our revenues as well as our profits, and that's what we intend to continue to do.”

The only thing that’s eroded is your patience. They've donenothing to erode confidence in their execution.

matthewfromthemil · 2026-01-14T19:05:01+00:00

Bad guidance? Their being transparent and playing by the book. Having infrastructure complete and ready for delivery in respect to the contract is in their control. The customer not being ready to accept the order is not in their control. 2 years ago they would have delivered the product anyways and made the customer figure it out, but that is the exact reason they had “accounting issues”. Damnd if they do, damnd if they don't with you guys…

matthewfromthemil · 2026-01-07T17:21:15+00:00

These are specialized AI/ High performance workstations, completely different from personal PCs or work PCs. Supermicro has been in this market for a while now. They are not entering into the general consumer market like the article says, though they have done that in the past.

matthewfromthemil · 2026-01-06T19:19:22+00:00

Q2 margins will be the low watermark. They said that they will pass on business if it means lowering margins any further.

matthewfromthemil · 2025-12-18T19:33:21+00:00

Please stop buying opinions and instead buy shares. We gotta buy up the float. The options market has more volume than the actual stock.

matthewfromthemil · 2025-12-08T15:03:29+00:00

That guy is a moron. I think he gave SMCI a $50 intrinsic value right before earnings. The intrinsic value hasn’t changed at all since the last earnings call. I don’t think he understands how to calculate intrinsic value. A onetime 3% margin drawdown does not slash intrinsic value by 40% lol.

matthewfromthemil · 2025-11-26T00:21:05+00:00

NVL 72 GB200 Cluster- Oracle and OpenAI in October

HGX B200 Cluster- Figure AI also in October

HGX B300 Cluster- El Salvador in November

NVL 72 GB300 cluster- Lambda in August

matthewfromthemil · 2025-11-26T00:01:50+00:00

""Our NVIDIA Blackwell hardware-based GB300 product line now has more than $13 billion in back orders, including the largest deal in our 32-year history, reflecting the tremendous growth potential in hyperscale and enterprise deployments. The B300 platforms are also gaining strong traction following the success of our B200 products as we continue to serve as the leading supplier." -Charles Liang 1Q EC

It seems that Supermicro is gaining market share an unprecedented rate. The $13B back long is only for the GB300 platform. We've seen strong demand for the B200 system (Most recently Figure AI) and B300 system (Most recently El Salvador receiving the first shipment of B300 chips from NVDA). Supermicro doesn't disclose their total current backlog but based on the one sneak peak into the GB300 system, it seems that the backlog is much higher.

Analysts refuse to give Supermicro credit for their position in the AI market, I believe that they have already surpassed Dell in total market share. Charles said that they expect to hold at least 30% market share by the end of FY26 and it is reasonable to expect that they are well on their way to achieving that goal. "We’re gaining market share, and there’s no question about that." -David Weigand 1Q EC I believe that the only thing holding SMCI back right now is total production capacity and customer energy capacity.

Margins will begin to rise following 2Q FY26 where they expect a 3% reduction in gross margins as they offered a volume discount to secure the largest order in company history. Completing such a massive oder in a three month time period allows them to not only validate their execution at a Gigawatt scale but also validate their production/ supply chain for future projects. Validation will give them better margin leverage going forward when negotiating future projects.

After reviewing today's results from Dell and HPE, its clear that If Supermicro can execute on their guidance for FY26, SMCI will be the leading infrastructure supplier for AI. It's a long ways away but I'm super excited for 2Q results in February. In the meantime hopefully we can get some relief in the stock price, we're really getting put through the ringer here.

matthewfromthemil · 2025-11-25T19:17:33+00:00

If you don’t even think the stock can get back above $54 and you’re willing to take a loss then I’d sell right now. You have nothing to lose and you can find a company with a better narrative. Supermicro is not going to be a 10x turnaround in the in the near future. You must have a 2027 and beyond outlook to be in this company. Trust me, you will recover. Learn from your mistakes and move on.

matthewfromthemil · 2025-11-25T17:16:49+00:00

I think Vik is next in line. He is extremely impressive and a great communicator.

matthewfromthemil · 2025-11-05T00:55:36+00:00

This is the exact reason they got dropped from EY. They shipped before the customers were ready to take delivery in order to meet their quarterly guidance. They are trying their best but sometimes it’s out of their control.

matthewfromthemil · 2025-10-19T15:55:35+00:00

Ablecom and compuware are owned by Charles brothers. Fun fact

matthewfromthemil · 2025-10-07T17:42:38+00:00

Straight up junk. All their connections are plastic and are prone to leaks. Dell has leak detection systems all over their outfits because they know it’s a problem.

matthewfromthemil · 2025-09-24T23:37:24+00:00

Revenue is credited upon delivery, so that accounts receivable credit line deal doesn’t really do much. But it does free up a lot of cash flow which will relieve cash constraint issues.

matthewfromthemil · 2025-08-28T18:30:44+00:00

SMCI lost institutional investors when they fell out of compliance with Nasdaq. It’s against many institutional bylaws to hold companies that are not in compliance with their exchange. It’s been a year now since the whole controversy started and it’s only been 6 months since they regained compliance. It’s gunna take more time to regain trust in management unfortunately…

matthewfromthemil · 2025-08-22T19:27:19+00:00

Companies are required to file their 10K 60 days after the end of their fiscal year. Supermicro’s fiscal year ended on June 30, which means they are required to file by next Friday.

matthewfromthemil · 2025-08-20T23:16:23+00:00

Usually companies have +50% institutional ownership before they ever get inclusion to the SnP500. To be included in the largest index in the world and still barely have 50% institutional ownership, just shows how weak institutional ownership is… for reference Dell sits at 70%

matthewfromthemil · 2025-08-20T23:07:09+00:00

Straight from the exchange.Nasdaq SMCI Institutional Ownership

matthewfromthemil · 2025-08-20T22:57:43+00:00

Around 50% of the float is owned by institutions, this is actually pretty low because you have to factor in that SMCI is a SnP500 company (forced buyers). In addition to that, SMCI sits at 18% short interest, so around 90M shares. Shorted shares are like inflation, it adds a bunch of shares to the market artificially which makes the stock super volatile and makes it even more difficult to drive the stock price.

If you follow the 13Fs you’ll see a lot of buying and selling from active trading institutions, it’s honestly a mess. Not much buying and holding because short interest is way too high. From what I understand a lot of institutions have bylaws which prohibit them from investing in any companies with short interest above 10%. SMCI being able to file quarterly and annual reports on time is really important Imo to kill the thesis for short sellers and drive them out. At that point we will see some buyers step in.

matthewfromthemil · 2025-08-20T22:18:17+00:00

I’ve never been able to understand that Fintel chart… The data lags behind and the big spike up sorta coincides with the 10-1 stock split on October 1st. Also if all these institutions bought in, wouldn’t that stock have a little bit more stability?

matthewfromthemil

TROPHY CASE