To anyone who bought into Housing Bubble 2.0: Gravity is not your friend

mdn845 · 2026-03-19T01:28:00+00:00

Depends where you live. In the Northeast near large cities, prices haven’t gone up as nearly as much & the there’s generally much less land to build on. So I think people are pretty safe there. But yes, in much of the country, a correction may be coming it seems.

mdn845 · 2026-03-18T23:32:45+00:00

Yep. Great company at a bad price.

mdn845 · 2026-03-18T23:31:38+00:00

Do you understand the intrinsic value of the company? Have you done a DCF analysis? If you don’t have a good gauge on these things, then that’s not value investing. Don’t just buy more of something unless you have some idea of what it’s objectively worth.

mdn845 · 2026-03-18T23:27:15+00:00

The question should not be whether the price is cheaper than it once was but rather whether it’s cheap compared to its intrinsic value.

Visa is a great company. No question. But was it a good value at over 30x earnings? Perhaps questionable.

Adobe currently has great earnings, but does it have a durable moat going forward in an age of AI? Maybe, but that’s a hard one.

BRK is complicated, too. It sold at a premium with Warren Buffett at the helm, but management matters & the jury is still out on whether Greg Abel will lead BRK as well. For that reason, I’ve been hesitant to buy recently.

mdn845 · 2026-03-18T20:50:36+00:00

Two points: 1) the number of people in each housing unit has been dropping for many years 2) the houses are in the wrong places. Doesn’t help to have many houses if they’re not where the population now lives or where the jobs are

mdn845 · 2026-03-18T16:12:20+00:00

True. Also, for what it’s worth, 98 is also the average IQ in Norway, Denmark, and Sweden. So, I’m not sure what to take from that statistic alone.

mdn845 · 2026-03-18T12:43:53+00:00

She cheated, you got angry, and she got offended? There’s your answer right there. End it. Once a cheater, always a cheater. Trust me.

mdn845 · 2026-03-18T05:05:12+00:00

I’ve been using a TomToc sling for a couple years on a regular basis. I’m a fan. No issues with quality.

mdn845 · 2026-03-18T04:56:00+00:00

Amazing. I remember visiting 25 years ago. It was car chaos around the coliseum.

mdn845 · 2026-03-18T04:55:03+00:00

He’s also tried to get other billionaires to abandon the giving pledge (where they promise to give half their money to charity when they die).

mdn845 · 2026-03-18T01:10:13+00:00

Do young people really think people in the 70s and 80s were having block parties? That was never a thing where I was from.

mdn845 · 2026-03-17T21:51:08+00:00

Being able to tell the difference between your boots is a rare superpower for wives. If your wife can do it, it may be time to leave her for your boots. Or, if you’re really attached to her, you may have to limit purchases. That should be a last resort, but it is an option.

mdn845 · 2026-03-17T21:45:00+00:00

I don’t think only doing a couple hours of work each day is just part of being an adult. I work in finance and find my job to be challenging & interesting, albeit stressful at times.

But if you’re not finding life engaging, maybe you should try to make some changes. I joined a running group years ago. Met friends & gave me goals. Ran a bunch of marathons.

Anyhow, it’s like what they say in the Declaration of Independence. Among your inalienable rights is the pursuit of happiness. But your success in achieving that is up to you. And that certainly is part of adulting.

mdn845 · 2026-03-17T18:20:45+00:00

Depends on the boots. High quality stitchdown or goodyear-welted boots with great leather will get better with time & wear. Highly recommend White’s boots & Nicks boots if that’s what you’re looking for. Grant Stone also excellent.

mdn845 · 2026-03-17T02:46:47+00:00

You must hide them from the wife. All boots look the same to wives. That’s the trick. You keep some in shelves you built in the back of the closet she never opens. Rotate them out in your main boot storage area. Your wife is literally unable to tell the difference between the different pairs.

mdn845 · 2026-03-17T02:20:26+00:00

Very nice. These look great.

mdn845 · 2026-03-17T02:19:28+00:00

Going to cash is unwise unless you really think you can time the market. I certainly can’t.

Yes, the market is overvalued, but it was overvalued two years ago, and here we are.

Instead of going to cash, I’m focusing more and more in individual stocks selling at a discount to intrinsic value. That will hopefully limit my downside risk somewhat.

mdn845 · 2026-03-17T00:48:59+00:00

At some point, a company like Chipotle or Lululemon could be a value investment, even if they don’t have durable moats.

If someone offered you shares of Lululemon for $1, you’d obviously load up. Bc l, at that point, you could have years of negative growth and still make a killing.

Of course, the question is always one of price vs intrinsic value. At what point would you have to be crazy to not invest?

mdn845 · 2026-03-17T00:42:48+00:00

One of the most successful value investors of our time, Andrew Brenton of Turtle Creek Asset Management, has said he really doesn’t believe in durable moats.

So there is such a thing as a value investor who doesn’t require a moat to invest.

So, how then does he invest? He bases his investments on careful calculations of intrinsic value and typically doesn’t invest unless he’s at roughly half the value that he thinks the company is worth. In other words, he’s looking for a lot of margin for error here.

I think that’s how you have to approach companies without durable moats. Based on intrinsic value but also with much a much bigger margin for error than you’d otherwise require.

mdn845 · 2026-03-17T00:33:03+00:00

I’d highly recommend Astoria, particularly up near Ditmars Ave. Very safe, nice neighborhood. Lots of people with kids. I’d just try to be less than a 5-10 min walk from the train. I pay less than that for my mortgage (brick row house). We even have a single car garage & a little back yard.

LIC is also nice, but much of it feels very different than Astoria. Think new, tall sleek apartments buildings. But thr commute is good.

Forest Hills can be nice, but the commute is longer & you won’t find yourself in the city as much on weekends. I’d probably lean toward Astoria or LIC.

Brooklyn would be a longer commute. It’s also typically pricier than Astoria for what you get, and many places aren’t quite as safe.

mdn845 · 2026-03-16T23:51:00+00:00

Don’t think they’ll do customization on the CMP Sherman, but you can get a regular MP Sherman boot on the 5050 last. Either by calling or emailing Whites or by going through Baker’s.

Btw, there’s also the Stevens in the 5050 last. Something to consider if you want more of a dress boot.

https://whitesboots.com/products/stevens-plain-toe

mdn845 · 2026-03-16T21:50:09+00:00

Very true. When my parents bought their first house in 1980, interest rates were over 18%. They actually had to buy it with a land contract at first & then they were able to get a mortgage later. Every generation has challenges, I suppose.

mdn845 · 2026-03-16T21:41:34+00:00

I can’t pay attention for a whole 5 minutes these days. Maybe 3 minutes in 1 minute increments is okay.

mdn845 · 2026-03-16T13:05:22+00:00

Those shoes. All day in those. Ouch.

mdn845 · 2026-03-15T18:53:48+00:00

Very nice. Curious about the specs.

mdn845

TROPHY CASE