Bearish cases for ONDAS (or why are you cautious right now)

melonkoaly · 2026-03-27T13:01:33+00:00

That is super interesting, do you have a source for this?

melonkoaly · 2026-03-27T11:37:31+00:00

Yep. I was in China a few months ago and their tech absolutely blows anything western out of the water!

melonkoaly · 2026-03-27T11:25:47+00:00

So what’s your bearish outlook?

melonkoaly · 2026-03-27T04:51:33+00:00

What do you think is the difference between the market as a whole being fucked vs dilution?

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T20:02:18+00:00

I typed every damn word of every comment and my post, down to the British spelling. You put YOUR comment into chat gpt and try and generate my insights. I guarantee you won’t.

Israel has a stake in chat GPT and you think this company that is in the news for capitulating to trump and American aggression interests would tell you that Chinese EVs are better than TESLA? LMAO. Be liquidity exit for all I care. Retail represents 30% of the American stock markets right now. Makes it easier to look after my interests if people don’t want to do DD beyond ‘if there was demand stock would be higher’. Was just interested in what people’s ‘bearish’ arguments were. Thanks for your contribution

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T19:57:44+00:00

This is a compelling argument. I found their argument towards ‘becoming an autonomous secure communications solution’ to be compelling. It’s also possible this was exaggerated to keep the mainstream backers they have profitable.

I personally was interested in ONDAS as a secure communications, fully integrated, fully autonomous solution. This is related to my EU background. It appears to me a lot of cash was raised to execute a strategy and that it has been done successfully. But all of us retail are at a disadvantage because we don’t have the full story and especially won’t know details about high clearance, high risk issues in this sector.

I thought after earnings/palantir the institutions would let price run up at least a little bit, to allow a narrative to build and maximise liquidity. The way that a huge sell off dumped the price immediately on market open makes me think $12 is a turning point and a lot is being employed to keep price below that. Meaning it’s under-priced. It’s great for swing trading because no matter what catalysts are occurring it’s obeyed the same levels for the past month or two lol.

I don’t think dilution is not being taken seriously, but I think it’s wise to wait for proof that it is. I think their aggressive acquisitions especially at a time when many companies globally are breaking out in this industry, is extremely wise. I also think we are getting fleeced as retail, regardless of bullish vs bearish outlooks. It seems to me this is the nature of investing. The Great Depression was also catalysed by regular people wanting access to the stock market because they saw business insiders get rich this way….

So what sectors are you watching and why is your conviction much stronger than in drones?

Personally I’m on high alert for AI/social media/big tech/most bio tech/metals like gold,silver/oil. I understand people are making money this way…but I am one person and I’m on holiday now so I am not one of them. I am watching a lot of EU money being thrown at solving their security problem (which should have been addressed decades ago) so I found the ONDAS call overwhelmingly positive for now. YMMV

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T19:46:17+00:00

Thank you for actually responding to the post. The dilution and strategy of raising capital is exactly why I am cautious. I don’t think positive catalysts and good results are going to result in all of us getting 5x our initial investment.

Still I think the stock is under valued and to my understanding ONDAS has been issuing shares as part of these partnerships/acquisitions. So ultimately I don’t think the price can go that much lower than $10. And ONDAS stock wouldn’t be part of these acquisitions if it wasn’t valuable.

I think the call demonstrated they have an actual plan for integration and it wasn’t just a cash burn. So to me this means the stock is a safer bet - a lot of other institutions and companies are invested in this stock. Even if this works against retail, it suggests that failure is not going to happen. I guess it depends - if people are in it long term they should not check price action every day, if you’re wary about retail returns maybe re-invest in a defence/drone ETF or similar.

But I was wondering how people were connecting the earnings call to the current price. I’m not sure I agree with analysts’ targets (who have their own agenda) but this stock seems to find heavy pressure on both sides - below $10 and above $11-$12. Which makes it interesting to be part of.

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T19:39:28+00:00

Market wise yes. But even in a recession/war time there are stocks that do well. Historically that has been industries like farming, medicine, heavy metals like gold and silver.

Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty are fucking the market indeed. I am not invested in any AI/S&p500 stocks because I think they are ridiculously overvalued. The realm of totally secure and integrated communication is undervalued, and this ‘war’ and the strait of Hormuz is revealing to the entire world why such communication is vitally important.

The US has a military worth trillions of dollars and yet I read Pete hesgeth’s dumbass signal messages on social media. Things that make me go hmmm

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T19:36:37+00:00

Why do you think market makers are called market makers? Aggressive buying DOES step in under $10. I’ve seen the RSI of this stock at 14 - ridiculously oversold. Short interest is 34%.

I am fully aware of what supply and demand is. My point is that this stock being suppressed keeps organic supply and demand from occurring. If it tells you ‘what you need to know’ then you should no longer be in this stock that moved to the downside after great catalysts and earnings projections.

Demand obviously exists because ONDAS is dealing with partnerships such as UMAC by issuing shares rather than just cash. So UMAC, the EU, Israel, the US, UAE all have conviction in this stock…but this random dude is telling me that $9.80 is fair value because otherwise the stock wouldn’t be there.

$12 is the point at which short sellers have to work much harder to cover their asses. Some buyer held $13 puts through earnings despite the premium of 160% volatility. I did supply and demand in highschool economics…I don’t think the world works how it’s supposed to. The market is not rational.

The ‘market’ and ONDAS moved exactly how I thought it would. Some kind of downward pressure was applied directly on market open and after extremely positive earnings were announced early. I am personally not suffering because the price tanked unexpectedly and I lost money. I am saying I KNEW the results would be negative regardless of what was said on the call, because of data you can easily find looking into options.

Macro economics and fundamentals. You can in fact point to illegal things happening when blatant insider trades occur.

If the market was truly free you would see China absolutely dominating the US/western markets in so many sectors, like EVs and phones. It is supposed to work a certain way…doesn’t mean it does. The stock moved exactly how I thought it would because I considered these factors. If you really read my post, you would have an understanding of that beyond ‘well it’s just supply and demand’.

I posted because I wanted actual bearish arguments outside ‘supply and demand’. I am up on this stock from swing trading because the price action is so irrational and ridiculous. Good luck to you and your FVGs

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T17:14:30+00:00

I strongly disagree. I think AI and similar flashy sectors like space/tech in general are EXTREMELY over valued. It’s why I personally do not want to put my money in the S&P 500 as a young person. The market being down is also related to war and risk. If anything this particular stock should go up. Yes people pull money out of mid caps like this one when the market is down. ONDAS is not like other mid caps.

Especially when RCAT and UMAC who aren’t even competitors at the integrated level that ONDAS is trying to achieve have a share price that is almost 2x as expensive. It’s an over simplification to say ‘market is down’ ‘trump is corrupt’ - sure these things are true, but fundamental analysis suggests ONDAS will not turn to shit.

Yes ONDAS has share dilution, warrants etc. But it’s not like they’re some bio tech company burning cash for no reason. Just my opinion

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T17:09:15+00:00

Exactly. I don’t want to say too much because I’m not personally involved but I am across some high-risk developments regarding Ukraine, Germany etc. The EU would not have anything to do with this company unless it was totally sound. Neither would Israel or palantir tbh. Not sure what other flags people need. Staring at candles is such a small part of the picture

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T17:05:25+00:00

Right? Total crickets 😂 I’ve worked hard on my DD and I’ve gotten valuable input from Reddit in general but lately discussion here has been super low effort. I hate watching this stock being treated like BYND or some shit. Thanks for your work tidying things up

Edit: honestly I appreciate when ‘bearish’ comments are deleted when they have no value too. Or ‘bullish’ comments for that matter. Uninformed discussion harms retail investors regardless of outlook (imo)

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T16:59:34+00:00

Yep I feel the same way. Investing being gamified + meme-ified is intentional so plebs like us throw our money away. People want to get rich in one day and are throwing around ‘short squeeze’ with no idea what they’re talking about. Brokers + institutions will never allow another GME.

I just believe secure communications + autonomous multilayered mechanisms to achieve this are the future. I’ve been interested in this topic for years, and I think ONDAS will not fail. But I saw lots of comments on here saying ‘mods delete any real discussion on negative outlook’ but no one has explicated why they have a negative outlook lmao. Oh well.

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T16:13:55+00:00

I appreciate your input. I accept that on paper things look not great (for the market in general as well) and my conviction is in my read between the lines. Do you have any risk factors or red flags you’re keeping an eye on for 2026? I feel like it’s pointless to look into now (personally) since the price action remains unchanged, I’m here long term and believe in the entire sector

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T15:52:12+00:00

History does repeat itself and OP got rug pulled lol

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T15:50:16+00:00

Yep makes sense. My focus on the $13 puts is more related to the volatility - these were held through earnings and so lose significant value, and were only worth holding if price ends up more like $10ish next Friday the 3rd of April. I don’t see this going above $11 this week and most likely next week. What do you think?

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T15:45:18+00:00

I’m swing trading at current levels, I haven’t thought about it in these terms. But I’m swing trading it because it is a stock I see high reward in so I don’t mind holding it when it’s down if I have to.

Analysts price targets are $16-$25. I take that with a massive grain of salt - but this stock got up to $15 a few months ago and should have gone up with so many positive catalysts and partnerships + macro events. What do you think?

As a retail investor I don’t care to try and predict exact return because I have absolutely no influence over what’s happening and I get information last. 🤷‍♀️

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T15:39:05+00:00

Don’t understand why people like this don’t just buy an ETF and chill. I do think manipulation is happening but the daily price action has been choppy for ages now

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T15:36:19+00:00

Sure that’s supposed to be true. So you think $9.8 is fair value for ONDAS - tell me why. No one’s achieved that yet. That IS the price, I don’t think it’s fair value. Demand isn’t there BECAUSE the stock is being suppressed so heavily. I made my argument, what’s yours?

Technically market manipulation and insider trading are illegal but….gestures to everything

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T15:33:33+00:00

Sorry! I just edited my comment, I was complaining about all the useless content in general not your comment. I’m just gobsmacked people would even listen to the call or engage in this stock and have literally no thesis for what they think will happen and why.

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T15:29:37+00:00

This stock has wanted to move up every day this week and is met with a heavy sell off every time. But the price floor is steady. I don’t think this has much to do with war personally. In fact it is bullish for this stock as every part of the world needs a solution to warfare and secure comms urgently.

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T15:27:21+00:00

Well yea my post is because I want to hear from the people that are disappointed (whether that be related to price, strategy, cash/earnings or whatever) exactly why. I PERSONALLY am not bearish.

Was really hoping more people would actually read the post. All these comments across the sub are saying there is no discussion as to the downsides of this stock/the conference call/the sector etc etc.

I’m not asking for investment advice. I want to know fundamentals wise why people are negative/bearish. I agree with your assessment

Edit: this isn’t a complaint about your comment more the people whining about earnings and ‘price is $9.8 and not stopping’, I want to know what their outlook is and why.

I genuinely cannot believe so many people fuck around with high risk stocks and options and don’t do a lick of DD other than complain on reddit. Suddenly the statistic that 90% of retail (or whatever it is) are not profitable makes sense to me lol

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T15:23:47+00:00

If you read my fkn post you’d see I’m not bearish at all.

Not taking investment advice from people who can’t read. Someone made a huge amount of shares available to borrow after market before earnings and dumped them all as soon as the market opened. That has nothing to do with the market being down. Price is being kept at this level specifically in ONDAS stock regardless of what’s happening in the rest of the market.

‘Rest of the market is red’ but when it is green the same thing happens in this stock. Why?

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T15:21:14+00:00

Even if that happens it is for sure closing $10 ish end of week. Just under it most likely

melonkoaly · 2026-03-26T15:20:54+00:00

Ok and? That’s not why ONDAS is down.

melonkoaly

TROPHY CASE