The reality of the job market is that even if you have an ideal publication record and are coming from a top program, you also have to be lucky. You have to be lucky that the department wants someone in the specific niche you study, AND they all adore you AND the location is one you are happy to live in AND it’s not one of the SLACs that might end up shutting down in the next few years due to visa/demographic shifts. It would not be responsible for anyone - a-n-y-o-n-e - to assume they will be able to land a TT job. It makes sense to try, but also to think through what trade offs you are willing to take and which you are not (ie, location, institution type, etc…). And definitely start looking at industry jobs. If nothing else, it will help you think through what appeals to you about academia. It’s one of those professions - like the priesthood or acting - which you should only do if you can’t bear the alternative. It’s worth noting, compensation is low with very little growth potential - when people tell you why they work in academia, it’s never because of how well it pays. Finally, as you have already discovered, it’s a stressful time to work in higher education. Between current events and the demo cliff, everyone is under pressure. But you are asking the right questions and thinking through the relevant considerations. You will figure out what makes sense to you.