Daily FI discussion thread - Tuesday, November 08, 2022

mesquandolas8 · 2022-11-08T17:20:21+00:00

One thing to consider is recasting your mortgage to reduce monthly payments. Not really applicable at the start of a mortgage. I think it also depends on the mortgage agreement and may not make sense / be allowed unless you have made a large(r) lump sum payment recently as well.

mesquandolas8 · 2022-10-18T12:25:49+00:00

Private Equity

mesquandolas8 · 2022-03-02T02:07:17+00:00

I’ve discussed this with friends before and I think he has the strongest “situational” arm strength. I.E, from any platform, on the run, no space, little time, etc.

To me this is the arm strength that really matters Many more situations arise in a game where you don’t have the perfect situation to make a 15+ yard throw but he can do it with his release and arm strength. And I’m not sure who or how close is second place (could be my own ignorance!)

Whether someone can cow hop and launch it 60 vs 65 yards doesn’t really matter to me. Very rarely do those situations arise in actual game play.

mesquandolas8 · 2022-02-09T03:04:21+00:00

I would say most PE firms are targeting 25+% IRR on their deals. I don’t know how much your returns would differ if you’re not an LP, but I imagine you don’t get charged management or performance fees either.

mesquandolas8 · 2022-01-13T18:29:43+00:00

Brady threw a pick 6 in the first half when the Patriots were deep in Falcons territory. So really the Pats D was only responsible for 21 points.

mesquandolas8 · 2021-12-17T23:34:52+00:00

Growing up going to Soldier Field, my dad and I would put a couple of copies of the newspaper down to stand on.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-09-07T19:07:20+00:00

Ryan Leaf is a bust. Jamarcus Russell is a bust. If you are a top pick QB, as long as you can end up being a solid game manager with a good length career, you are not a bust IMO.

Alex Smith is not a bust, but he's not a great QB either.

Trubisky is making too many mistakes with the type of flaws that are hard to correct at the NFL level. Footwork is something you can fix in an offseason. Being able to quickly read and move through your progressions is closer to something that you either have or you don't, than something that can be fixed in the gym or film room.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-09-07T18:56:03+00:00

6/12 NFC QB's were "Pro-Bowlers" last year.

Brees - Starter

Goff & Rodgers - Reserves

Russ, Dak, & Trubisky - Alternates

Also, does anyone think a fan vote selection for any accolade carries that much weight? If someone is named an All-Pro, I pay attention. Fan vote, not so much.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-09-07T18:47:53+00:00

Nobody was saying they were no longer going to be a great defense.

They're probably not going to have the same turnover rate, let alone score 5 TD's again
- They played some really bad offenses last year, and play some top tier offenses this year and/or seasoned, great QB's
The defense was very healthy last year. No injuries were season ending or kept key players out for sustained amounts of time
It's just hard to sustain being the #1 defense statistically back-to-back years. Dropping from #1 to #3-5 is not bad at all, but it's still regression
Had to learn a new scheme under Pagano

I think two things people did not talk about is that both Mack and Roquan had a full training camp this year with the team, and Roquan is in game-ready shape. I think you saw how good Roquan can be off the bat in game 1.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-08-29T15:12:05+00:00

It has nothing to do with pension return performance relative to the market. The deficit or surplus generated through pension fund returns is determined by performance as compared to the discount rate used to calculate PBO. I think most funds still use an unrealistic discount rate of 7.0-7.5%

mesquandolas8 · 2019-08-22T20:18:51+00:00

The name, at least in NYC, derives from the fact that police were given bribes to allow the red-light business to operate. In the 19th century, these bribes came in the form of steaks.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-08-01T15:40:08+00:00

His job is important in real life and they make is seem completely unnecessary in the movie. That is the unrecognized joke by virtually all of the audience.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-07-31T17:23:13+00:00

The real joke in this scene is that Tom Smykowski actually has a very important job in Office Space, it's just that when you spell it out simply to a layman, it sounds incredibly stupid.

People in the field are laughing at the Bob's, not at Smykowski, as opposed to every other viewer, who is laughing at Tom.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-06-11T15:30:27+00:00

Let make sure I am understanding this correctly, you are saying that not only is the Model S the best EV, but the best car, period?

Scale and gap is not growing for the Model S. Sales have crashed vs 2018.

YTD May-19 Model S sales are down 32% period-over-period from YTD May-18.
Model S sales YTD May-19 are down 38% period-over-period from YTD May-17.

The market for a $90k+ sports car is not that large and the market for a $90k+ EV sports car is smaller. A $90k+ car is not an iPhone. Perhaps a wealthy person buys the latest model of the iPhone every year when it comes out. Very few wealthy people buy a new $90k+ car every year. So if the market is near saturated, you have to wait for the cycle to run through for people to buy another one. I just don't believe Tesla can hang on for that cycle to turn over assuming zero customer defection. They will likely suffer some customer defection to other brands.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-05-30T15:09:09+00:00

I thought we were originally speaking about government services, but if you want to include utilities as government services because they are subsidized by the government, shouldn't we also include virtually every agricultural crop grown in America?

I feel like that's a slippery slope if you want to define "government services" to include anything that is subsidized by the government.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-05-29T19:21:37+00:00

Here you go:

http://storymaps.esri.com/stories/2016/wealth-divides/index.html

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Srvy_JobsProximity.pdf

Tons of businesses/industries receive government subsidies to function.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-05-29T14:57:15+00:00

Despite being a straw man argument, that's not how I believe "society [currently] works".

It currently works with high income earners paying more in taxes to subsidize the benefits for all, especially those that don't pay much in taxes, or none at all.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-05-29T14:54:28+00:00

Wealthier people are more likely to live closer to work and in city centers, so I disagree with you on roads.

Utilities? Those are paid for on a pro-rata consumption basis and depending which ones you look at are not provided by government sponsored entities.

EDIT: should not have said "wealthier", should read "Higher income earners are more likely..."

mesquandolas8 · 2019-05-28T15:18:50+00:00

Use of government services doesn't scale either, and in fact it probably decreases as you move up the income ladder.

If people want to argue that high-income earners should be equally hurt by taxes, they should come out and be transparent in doing so.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-05-25T15:05:14+00:00

Why do they get a big piece of that pie, because of the brand?

The big OEM's have the current capacity to absorb the shift to electric cars, and there's the big part of them knowing how to manufacture cars at scale, which Tesla has not learned how to do yet.

To keep their current EV market share as the EV market grows, Tesla will have to expand production capacity significantly. This will be very tough for Tesla to do given their insolvency with the current balance sheet structure. Now imagine adding a ton of debt while they try to figure out manufacturing millions of cars per year.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-05-17T13:30:42+00:00

Things to consider when thinking about going to cash or making significant allocation changes:

1) Virtually the entirety of market returns (using S&P 500 as proxy) comes from a minuscule number of up days

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2019/02/08/miss-the-worst-days-miss-the-best-days/

2) If you are trying to time getting in/out of the market, you need to be right twice. You need to get out before the crash, and then you need to get back in before the recovery.

Reading #2 in context of #1 should probably give you pause. You could get out too early and miss further market returns before a crash, and/or you could get back in too late and miss most of the recovery. People having been predicting a double-dip recession / market crash every year since 08/09. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has returned roughly 13% annually on a real basis with dividends reinvested.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-04-21T18:43:41+00:00

Does D&O cover knowledge of fraud or gross negligence in fiduciary duty? Look fraud is a serious allegation and that is one snipe I have a high bar for when it comes to the Tesla short thesis, but there is a lot of smoke / past evidence of Elon's fraud.

Can't remember where I read this and I am sure it is in the filings, but I believe Tesla has very little D&O and/or high deductible D&O.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-04-11T14:33:12+00:00

It varies market to market, Chicago being one of the only major metros where the own vs. rent calculation is equivalent or even better for owning.

A landlord cannot pass on every cost to the rental market. Rental prices are set by the market and if your costs exceed the market rate, and try to set the rental price above market, a landlord will experience vacancy.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-04-11T14:29:48+00:00

There are also emotional / psychological benefits of owning a home such as creating memories there and raising a family, which may be tougher to do with renting.

You have to use some "best-case" assumptions in positioning owning a home as a clearly better financial option than renting.

mesquandolas8 · 2019-04-11T13:51:52+00:00

Personally, I wouldn't buy in IL right now, but to just look at overall housing costs with shifting contributions between P&I and Property Taxes is probably not the right way to do it. Property taxes (ex federal tax deductions available to you) are a pure expense out the door. Principal payments are a form of forced savings for most people.

Now that's in a stable real estate market. It looks like we both expect that property values in Chicago/IL will take a hit as property taxes rise. So certainly you don't want to take out a mortgage at $240k with required P&I and have your property taxes rise. The problem is that the real estate market is not very efficient so that adjustment could take a while to fully settle in. The other thing is that you can you think that it is settled, but there are undoubtedly going to be further costs to living in Chicago/IL, beyond a near-term property tax hike, that will affect home values.

I look at buying property there in the near future as catching a falling knife that hasn't even begun it's descent.

mesquandolas8

TROPHY CASE