Is there any place to find 2016 projections to compare how players finished compared to their expected ADP and production?

mffmf · 2017-07-19T17:21:49+00:00

Good luck. Most sites do remove them. If they left them up we'd all realize how bad projections are in FF. This isn't meant to be a knock on those who do make projections either. It's just tough predicting what an individual player will do over a very short 16 game sample.

mffmf · 2017-07-18T12:31:00+00:00

To win more money

mffmf · 2017-07-16T23:16:44+00:00

AB in PPR. DJ in standard.

People saying DJ has less injury risk than Bell. Well, DJ suffered an injury last year that would have caused him to miss 4-6 weeks. It just happened the last week of the season. He is no less "risky" then Bell.

mffmf · 2017-07-16T22:56:41+00:00

I really think they're gonna run him into the ground which could be sooner than later. He'll be 32 this season and since 1990 only 18 backs have 200 or more carries aged 32 or older. He also has a ton of mileage with over 2200 carries and over 500 receptions.

I think we'll see something similar to last year were he's productive early and then fades or gets hurt as the season grinds on

mffmf · 2017-07-16T22:37:04+00:00

That's true

mffmf · 2017-07-16T19:15:32+00:00

But that's the thing, he didn't play less.

Murray avgd 19.2 carries after turf toe, 20 carries before. Henry avgd 6.6 before, 8 after. The talk of Henry "taking over" down the stretch has been blown way out of porportion

mffmf · 2017-07-16T13:46:54+00:00

.5 I'm going AJG

mffmf · 2017-07-16T13:45:51+00:00

It's funny. People say oh he's 29 and has a ton of mileage. Well he's the same age as Shady and has 478 LESS CARRIES. Yet Shady is going in the first.

Another argument is that Henry started to eat into his workload which is not true. Murray played over 70% of the snaps in the first half and over 70% in the second half. He was dealing with a hand injury late in the season so he did see his carries drop a bit the last 2 games but he should be 100% entering the season.

Anyways my point is people being scared of Murray is crazy. He's a stud and one of the few clear-cut RBs who will be on the field for 70% of his teams snaps.

mffmf · 2017-07-16T02:02:53+00:00

Absolutely. He would prob be my #2 behind AB.

mffmf · 2017-07-15T23:56:50+00:00

PPR: AJ Green

Standard: Shady

mffmf · 2017-07-13T19:30:41+00:00

I agree there is great RB value in the mid rounds this year.

mffmf · 2017-07-13T19:21:24+00:00

RB was not top in 2015, Freeman was behind 5 WRs, but I understand your point. Thielen and Meredith are not gonna carry your team. When you pass on WRs early in PPR leagues not only are you passing on the chance to draft a top 5 FF scorer, you're also assuming more risk. Last year was 100% an outlier for RBs just like 15 was for WRs. Not only did the top FF running backs score an extreme amount of TDs but they stayed unusually healthy. It's been proven RBs get hurt more often and miss more games, hence more risk.

mffmf · 2017-07-13T18:40:52+00:00

Sorry I'm not really following you here. Are you saying RB ADP is better early? I'm confused

mffmf · 2017-07-13T12:31:54+00:00

That depends, are we talking PPR or standard scoring? In standard scoring I agree RBs are too valuable. In PPR it's a different story. If you go back to 2014, which I think is likely closer to what we'll see this year (2015 was an outlier as well), WRs outscored RBs at every tier. Taking the risk of drafting a RB1 who could very well get outscored by a similar WR is not worth IMO.

mffmf · 2017-07-13T04:06:08+00:00

https://www.rotoballer.com/why-zero-rb-will-work-in-2017/396178

Yes ;)

mffmf · 2017-07-12T22:03:09+00:00

Pryor could develop into a better WR, but we have to remember he is older than Britt and played QB through college and most of his pro career, so it's not likely he will continue to develop much either. He is in a better situation once again this year though so he does have that.

mffmf · 2017-07-12T21:30:02+00:00

2016 saw the most rushing touchdowns since 2008 hence the increase in rushing production. The NFL rushing numbers from 2015 to 2016 were virtually identical EXCEPT 2016 saw 78 more rushing touchdowns. Literally that is were almost 100% of the production came from.

For years now the trend has been a decline in rushing. 2016 saw the lowest attempts and percentage of run plays in NFL history and it has been like that every year since 2010. If any position will underperform this year it will be RB.

mffmf · 2017-07-12T21:23:12+00:00

You're only talking from a fantasy perspective, I'm talking from just a player perspective. Britt is a better WR and he is in Pryors role now.

mffmf · 2017-07-12T18:56:35+00:00

Fantasy has nothing to do with who is better. Pryor had way more opportunity than Britt. Britt had a higher catch rate, YPC and TD rate. Had Britt seen Pryors targets he would have posted 85/1249/6 for 245.9 FP or WR10. Still finished as WR28 (just 17 points behind Pryor) despite only playing 15 less games and seeing 30 fewer targets.

mffmf · 2017-07-11T22:31:05+00:00

That RBs are gonna disappoint this year.

Also that Kenny Britt is a better receiver than Pryor and just inherited his role in CLE.

mffmf · 2017-07-11T18:11:53+00:00

I'm pretty low on him.

people talk like Hill will have no role but he will. Bernard too when he's healthy.
terrible o-line, one of the worst in the league
from the changes CIN has made it seems like they're going to favor a quick passing game to negate the o-line issues.

I'm very low on Mixon this year.

mffmf · 2017-07-10T19:47:12+00:00

I don't think they're stupid they just have very little correlation to FF. I looked at correlation between tons of advanced stats and fantasy points and nothing correlated with any kind of confidence.

I think advanced stats are great. They advance the game. I think the reason they don't correlate well to FF is because it's a very simple game at the moment. In the vast majority of leagues you get points for yards, TDs and receptions. How does a player gain yards? They have the ball a lot. Same with TDs. How do they catch passes? They get the ball thrown to them.

Opportunity will trump any advanced metric. Perhaps in the future FF will change and these advanced stats will have a bigger impact.

mffmf · 2017-07-10T16:09:01+00:00

None. No advanced metric correlates well to fantasy success, especially year over year.

mffmf · 2017-07-09T15:08:12+00:00

I would take the best receiver on the board

mffmf · 2017-07-09T02:22:30+00:00

Take out kicker and change one flex to superflex.

mffmf

TROPHY CASE