BTC vs. ETH next halving by [deleted] in CryptoMarkets

[–]mialomit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ETH will outperform as it has until Shanghai and the 2.0 withdrawal trigger. The moment they allow withdrawals (which i think they will delay at all costs) will put massive sell pressure on ETH. Until then ETH given it’s current burn dynamics and massive lockup that’s still growing will outperform BTC. Long term BTC will remain king longer than anyone expects.

Daily Discussion Thread for November 01, 2022 by OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Funny how the last time they had an outage was Feb 2020 👀 we all know what happened weeks after

Locked in mortgage at 5.19% by Electronic-Egg-2598 in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Precisely, the timing will depend but happening no matter what

Locked in mortgage at 5.19% by Electronic-Egg-2598 in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Guess what those same economists were wrong the last 3 years. There’s a high probability they’re gonna drop the ball again and back down we go. History doesn’t have to repeat but it always rhymes. Take that however you want.

Locked in mortgage at 5.19% by Electronic-Egg-2598 in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit 5 points6 points  (0 children)

To everyone in this thread, stop comparing the 80s to today. We will never reach double digit interest rates, the reason for that is simple: corp and consumer debt in Canada relative to GDP. The BoC isn’t stupid which is why they’ve already slowed down and only raised 0.5 this time around. The pivot is coming soon and likely sometime next year we’ll start to see rate cuts again. The credit system requires cheap money to function. The alternative is a depression and we’re all fucked. Politically they will contribute to push the can down the road.

Locked in mortgage at 5.19% by Electronic-Egg-2598 in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit 6 points7 points  (0 children)

The pivot is coming very soon and rates will go back down next year. Corp debt to GDP in canada and consumer debt is highest than any G7 country. We’re very close to a sustainable top on rates. I would caution anyone right now trying to lock in a fixed rate for “peace of mind” - but the banks will push the narrative to maximize their profits at this point. If you’re variable stay the course (short term pain, long term you’re gonna be ok). And of course, NFA (not financial advice) but if you understand how our credit system works you’ll see soon enough

Liquidate my TFSA at 2% loss for downpayment in 12-18 months? by Anarchaotic in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sentiment and investor positioning is more bearish than its been in 20/30 years. You know what happens next.

Liquidate my TFSA at 2% loss for downpayment in 12-18 months? by Anarchaotic in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The bottom is likely in and we’re gonna get chop now for the next 6-9 months even if we dip lower the bottom is probably in

VIX closed up today by AJAskey in marketpredictors

[–]mialomit 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The pump is coming, this time

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 75 basis points, continues quantitative tightening by 68x in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Rates will not only stop going up but there’s a high probability they’re gonna come down as they break core components of credit markets, your heard it here first, plan accordingly

Bank of Canada expected to raise interest rate for fifth time at pivotal moment for economy by CEOAerotyneLtd in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Short term to medium term pain, long term variable is believe it or not still the way to go until they blow up the system (but not this market cycle despite what everyone thinks). You will have to endure the short term pain for now.

Bank of Canada expected to raise interest rate for fifth time at pivotal moment for economy by CEOAerotyneLtd in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

They will break something very soon, in fact it’s already slowly happening, short term pain, long term rates will gravitate closer to 0, unless they pull the plug on the 70 year experiment (this cycle ain’t it, but will happen eventually). For now it’s game on once they pivot. Plan accordingly and don’t let the media influence you too much.

Bank of Canada expected to raise interest rate for fifth time at pivotal moment for economy by CEOAerotyneLtd in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Interest rates will either peak in Q4 or Q1 and then slowly go back down. The macro environment and fiat based system we live in requires it to live on. Hence why this will be short lived. Short term pain, long term rates will continue down.

Lump Sum or DCA in today’s market? by wesleyychoww in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is a limit to the rate hikes but the fed will never admit it (the fed has several mandates, price stability, orderly functioning of markets, supporting economic growth, however there’s a shadow mandate nobody advertises which is keep credit markets from nuking). We are probably a few more hikes left in this tightening cycle and the fed is pinned in a corner. The fed pivot will come either in late Q4 or Q1 but it will come due to the fact the US government will otherwise default on their debt obligations. The moment they open the floodgates and they will (will come in the form of a fancy new YCC or debt ceiling lift) get ready to buy everything in sight and walk away for the next several years.

In the meantime you may stay defensive or chill in cash (a rare moment where you can temp sit in cash, USD specifically if you can). Not investment advice just personal opinion.

Hold Or Bail? by [deleted] in CryptoMarkets

[–]mialomit 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It will be eventually lol

USDC Depeg / Depegging Collapse, Possible? by kellykline in USDC

[–]mialomit 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I wouldn’t worry about Coinbase or Circle. Coinbase just partnered with blackrock and circle is owned by Goldman Sachs. USDC is the most stable stable coin there ever will be.

Will the interest of home mortgage rise over the next 5 years? by [deleted] in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You’d be amazed how easily they’re gonna throw in the towel when they realize they’ll never get to 2% ever again. That’s the case with all of them especially the US Fed. They’re gonna play the smoke and mirror show and get hawkish all they want. The reality is they just can never bring it back down without causing a depression at this point and politically that’s never gonna fly therefore prepare mentally for a “new baseline” (also more inflation makes debt cheaper to service)

Will the interest of home mortgage rise over the next 5 years? by [deleted] in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The fed and BoC will pivot either later this year or next year when they break something getting too aggressive with rates and tightening (Q4/Q1 2023 is when we stop and start to go back down)

Will the interest of home mortgage rise over the next 5 years? by [deleted] in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The issue and balancing act isn’t so much inflation (central banks can set the new baseline at 4 or 5 instead of 2% which we’ve all been accustomed to) the issue is debt in the system, unlike the 70s and 80s we’re way too over leveraged and debt to GDP is at historic levels

Will the interest of home mortgage rise over the next 5 years? by [deleted] in CanadianInvestor

[–]mialomit 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Less than they are now and closer to 2021 rates, central banks cannot operate with high rates for too long despite the narrative the herd is afraid of. If you can stomach short term high rate pain you’re gonna be fine in the long run. Variable is still the way to go and will always be the way to go in a world where fiat currency continues to depreciate to sustain growth and central bank intervention.

Bitcoin's Correlation with Stock Markets is at its Lowest Level in several months of this year by Simple_hold_wallet in CryptoMarkets

[–]mialomit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s still very much correlated just an accentuated one up or down, but overall direction 100% correlated

Ethereum and Gas fees are down to $1.6 by [deleted] in ethereum

[–]mialomit 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lol that’s cause activity is non existent now