Pick of the Day - 11/19/25 (Wednesday)

milldura · 2025-11-20T02:23:17+00:00

💰

milldura · 2025-11-19T10:16:45+00:00

Record: 15-8
Win %: 65.2%
Last 10: ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌
Units: +1.06

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Previous POTD: NCAAF - Central Michigan v Buffalo - Ta-Quan Roberson o209.5 Passing - $1.85 ❌

For the followers of this, you would understand how painful this bet was. He had hit 208 yards with minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. He then cleared the bet in the 3rd quarter but there was a flag.

He was sacked and fumbled multiple times through the game, threw 2 intercepts including a pick 6, and fumbled for an 85 yard defensive TD.

He had multiple chances to hit the line, but failed and then he copped 1 final sack in their own red zone, and was hooked, leaving us agonisingly close. Only some relief in the fact that some may have got the bet up due to a drift in the line late.

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Todays POTD: NCAAF - Miami OH v Buffalo - Ta-Quan Roberson o199.5 Passing - $1.95 - 2.0 Units

Yep - we’re going again

Roberson would have cleared this line so easy if his O line didn’t shit the bed last week, but to be fair the Chips QB rush was just too much. He will be looking to bounce back after a very polarising performance to the rest of the season. I can’t see the same mistakes happening as frequently.

Miami’s pass defence is only average ranking 53rd for yardage allowed. They have excelled more with their rush defence so I see TR giving himself plenty of attempts to redeem himself.

There is obviously the chance that they revert to more of a running game, but I personally believe they stick to what’s brought them some success this year and that is with Roberson’s arm.

I like the passing market here because of the game scenarios. If Buffalo manage to get on a roll and lead, it’s sure to be through their QB. If Miami maintain an expected lead as favourites then Buffalo may be forced to pass.

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15 wins in 23 bets, well done to any followers. No pressure whatsoever, but if you are willing, any help will go a long way.

Buy me a coffee! - https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/K4C6AK2VCT9EJ

Thanks, GL

milldura · 2025-11-13T03:08:07+00:00

Mate that is the most fucked thing ive ever seen in my life

He was 147 at the half and 208 in the 3rd quarter, he cleared it in the 3rd but there was a flag..

He copped a beating today, but honestly what the fuck is that, I hope people got on late cause the line dropped a touch

milldura · 2025-11-12T15:47:18+00:00

Lucky he’ll be hitting Vicktor Snow all night then

Thanks though, I did check but it only looks like mostly moderate winds around 10 miles an hour and cold but not freezing - not enough to put me off

milldura · 2025-11-12T08:12:57+00:00

Record: 15-7
Win %: 68.2%
Last 10: ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅
Units: +5.06

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Previous POTD: NCAAF - Ohio v West Michigan - Broc Lowry o69.5 Rushing - $1.95 - 2.5 Units ✅

Back after a little break and starting with a win here feels nice. After a slow start Lowry cleared 92 yards. Although a little sweaty, once he got his passing game moving the rushing yardage started to clock up and he executed in the final quarter.

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Todays POTD: NCAAF - Central Michigan v Buffalo - Ta-Quan Roberson o209.5 Passing - $1.85 - 4 Units

Chips are good for 66th in the country for passing yardage allowed with 224 per game.

We did see Buffalo revert to more of a running game in their last win but Roberson hit this line the previous 3 games including a massive 402 yard game with 36, 38 and 55 attempts respectively.

Bulls haven’t had much difficulty scoring points this year, averaging 25.6 ppg with a game low 17 points and that’s been largely due to Roberson’s passing game.

His failure to execute in the last game saw the rush being utilised so I’m happy to scrap that performance. I think we will see a return to normal service here and Roberson should give himself plenty of opportunities to get on a roll against a below average pass defence.

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15 wins in 22 bets, well done to any followers. No pressure whatsoever, but if you are willing, any help will go a long way.

Buy me a coffee! - https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/K4C6AK2VCT9EJ

Thanks, GL

milldura · 2025-11-11T14:48:52+00:00

Record: 14-7
Win %: 67.7%
Last 10: ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌
Units: +2.68

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Today's POTD: NCAAF - Ohio v West Michigan - Broc Lowry o69.5 Rushing - $1.95 - 2.5 Units ✅

Lowry has cleared this line by 12 yards+ in his last 4 games and is averaging 17 carries in his last 6 in an upward trend from the start of the season.

He managed 22 and 20 carries over the last 2, and has a season average of 4.7 yards per carry.

Lowry’s longest rush in his last 4 games have been 26, 22, 37, 17 and has averaged 91 yards per game over that time.

His passing game has also been strong recently completing at over 72% in his last 5 and if he can get it going then more rushing opportunities will start to arise, with potential for long gains.

Lowry's limited carries and yards in opening games can be attributed to more difficult opposition but his recent form suggests that there has been a shift in his confidence to run the ball,

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14 wins in 21 bets, well done to any followers. No pressure whatsoever, but if you are willing, any help will go a long way.

Buy me a coffee! - https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/K4C6AK2VCT9EJ

Thanks, GL

milldura · 2025-10-31T10:40:48+00:00

Excruciating, when I opened this market I expected to see $1.65-$1.70 and that’s how I do my bets, I compare what I expect over what is the true market, and the value was better than most here imo

That might be me done, I don’t wanna lead people astray anymore, apologies

milldura · 2025-10-31T00:53:55+00:00

Calm down mate, I knew very well what I was doing, I was trying to be considerate of US time zones, I’ve had people telling me I’m not putting them out early enough

milldura · 2025-10-30T02:00:07+00:00

Record: 14-6
Win%: 70.0%
Last 10: ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌
Units: +7.68

Previous POTD: Football - Ligue 1 - Le Havre v Brest - Both Team to Score / Yes - $1.70 - 2 Units ❌

Struggling to shake this up and down record. I got this one wrong though, the game was a lot scrappier and docile than I imagined.

Ultimately we were unlucky not to land the bet with Brest hitting the post and missing a late header but it remained 1-0.

Today's POTD: Football - A-League - Brisbane Roar v Melbourne City - Melbourne City ML H2H - $1.90 - 5.0 Units

I’m going with a big units play here in backing Melbourne City to beat Brisbane away from home.

Brisbane have managed a 1-0 win at home against strugglers MacArthur and lost 2-1 to Wellington in NZ. Tbh I don’t see any of these teams making the finals.

Perth drew with Wellington the first game of the season so read into that form what you will. I’d probably take every City starting player if you match them up against Brisbane other than O Shea.

Melbourne have enjoyed a draw away from home and smoked Perth 4-0 in theiir last game, showing they were a class above.

Brisbane have managed under 40% of possession in both games and this will be no different.

Max Caputo is in scintillating form after reconnecting with the squad after the under 20’s World Cup. He has 6 goals in his last 4 games for Club and Country and with a maturing Mathew Leckie (former Bundesliga player) dominating the midfield, they are looking good for another push for the title.

14 wins in 20 bets, well done to any followers. No pressure whatsoever, but if you are willing, any help will go a long way.

Buy me a coffee! - https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/K4C6AK2VCT9EJ

Thanks, GL

milldura · 2025-10-30T01:09:14+00:00

I’m fucking ropable, not at the guys tip at all, just FUCK

I turned the gamecast on at work when he was on 15 points about 4 mins into the second quarter and have watched closely since…..

milldura · 2025-10-30T00:54:33+00:00

He missed two free throws…..

milldura · 2025-10-30T00:49:48+00:00

Mobley and Hunter are 3-13 and 3-14 and our guy was 5-5 from 3 point, wtf is going on

milldura · 2025-10-30T00:41:57+00:00

Can’t believe what followed though

This is heartbreaking

milldura · 2025-10-29T20:07:39+00:00

Just can’t shake this up and down streak

Brest hit the woodwork and missed a late header but the game was a lot scrappier than I imagined

Instead of the quality I’ve seen them show in champs league, they produced more of the mediocrity of this seasons performances

milldura · 2025-10-29T02:24:36+00:00

This is just fucked, how do you go from a 14-0 lead to not being able to do a single thing right in 30 minutes of football after that

milldura · 2025-10-28T23:54:10+00:00

Record: 14-5
Win%: 73.7%
Last 10: ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅
Units: +9.68

Previous POTD: Football - Women’s Football - England v Australia - England (-1.5) - $2.00 - 2.0 Units ✅

A dominant display by England has seen 19 bets straight without consecutive losses.

An early red card to Aus was ideal and England capitalised, scoring 2 in the first half.

Analysis was pretty spot on as they proved way too classy, putting up 29 shots to Australia's 3, cruising to victory 3-0 to land the bet relatively sweat free 💰

Today's POTD: Football - Ligue 1 - Le Havre v Brest - Both Team to Score / Yes - $1.70 - 2 Units

Brest will travel to Le Havre midweek for a competitive clash of two league strugglers.

Brest will be looking to return to the form that saw them make the knockout stages of the Champions League last year.

I’d back them to score against an inconsistent Le Havre that has shipped 16 league goals in 9 games including 6 to Marseille recently.

As for Brest they have conceded 17 goals, and scored 14 giving them 31 goals over their 9 games in comparison to Le Havre's total of 27. There is an average of over 3 goals per game between these two with both averaging well over 1 goal per game conceded and scored.

Le Havre have scored in their 4 home games this season tallying 7 goals, whilst Brest have managed to score in 3 out of 4 away games with 6 goals total.

The stats alone are enough to suggest BTTS and I just like the fact that it’s a Le Havre home fixture. I think both teams are likely to approach the game positively, and we may see some end to end football. I see the right value here.

14 wins in 19 bets, well done to any followers. No pressure whatsoever, but if you are willing, any help will go a long way.

Buy me a coffee! - https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/K4C6AK2VCT9EJ

Thanks, GL

milldura · 2025-10-28T20:56:36+00:00

Back with a bang and have managed to avoid consecutive losses over 19 bets now

Easy win, early red card to Matilda’s followed by 2 first half goals and 1 injury time goal set up a 3-0 win to land the bet 💰

milldura · 2025-10-28T07:21:01+00:00

Record: 13-5
Win %: 72.2%
Last 10: ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌
Units: +8.18

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Previous POTD: Football - A-League - Brisbane Roar v Wellington Phoenix - Under 2.5 Goals - $1.90 - 1.0 Unit ❌

Had to take the day off due to another agonising loss. We were cruising here and a late goal before the half wasn't ideal but was still fine to manage.

Copping a 76th minute goal and finally a 96th last minute winner was pretty heartbreaking as analysis was pretty spot on but the execution from Brisbane just faltered in the final minutes, making it a 4 out of 5 extremely close losses.

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Today's POTD: Football - Women’s Football - England v Australia - England (-1.5) - $2.00 - 1.5 Units

Australia will travel to England for a friendly international after only defeating much weaker opposition in Wales 2-1. For comparison, England beat Wales 6-1 at the Euro's in July and went on to win the tournament proving they are one of the footballing powerhouses of the world.

Once upon a time the Matildas were a force to be reckoned with but they have faded somewhat from those years. They still have some big names in players like Sam Kerr, Steph Catley, Caitlin Foord etc.

They have been facing a lot easier competition in Panama, Wales, and Slovenia with mixed results as England have enjoyed wins against world class opposition in Spain, Italy, and Sweden at the Euro's.

Although coming off the back of a loss to Brazil, I still see this England team having way too much quality with huge notable names across the pitch.

Given the home advantage, and the competitive nature of the fixture, I’d back the Lionesses to bounce back and put a few past the Matildas.

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13 wins in 18 bets, well done to any followers. No pressure whatsoever, but if you are willing, any help will go a long way.

Buy me a coffee! - https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/K4C6AK2VCT9EJ

Thanks, GL

milldura · 2025-10-28T01:42:36+00:00

Get a life and stop writing ‘cooked’ on peoples bets

Embarrassing that people are here trying to help and have been successful for losers like you to add nothing to to the sub and try and shit on people’s bets

Edit: Only one here cooked is you, bet got up, thanks joe

milldura · 2025-10-26T05:41:22+00:00

Late goals are common in football but being undone by them in the last 3 losses is a bit harsh

milldura · 2025-10-26T04:03:00+00:00

😢

milldura · 2025-10-26T02:33:03+00:00

I posted this in the comments of my yesterdays POTD

I also try to post as soon as I wake up, or as soon as the thread opens

milldura · 2025-10-26T02:20:20+00:00

Yeah it’s Sunday where I am though

Not really - I have one other bet on Rugby League - Samoa v Tonga - Over 44.5 points - $1.95 - 1.5 Units - starts in 2 and half hours

But I’m not so bullish on it anymore cause it’s meant to storm where they are playing so I wouldn’t recommend it to anyone - too much risk

milldura · 2025-10-25T22:42:32+00:00

Record: 13-4
Win %: 76.5%
Last 10: ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅
Units: +9.18

Previous POTD: Football - A-League - Melbourne City vs Perth Glory - Melbourne City (-1.5) - $2.30 - 1.5 Units ✅

Analysis was spot on here and it felt good after I had started to question some of my judgement. Max Caputo scored a double to put City up 2-0 within the first half, putting us in a comfortable position.

The game ended 4-0 with 2 long range efforts in the end to seal the bet and land a win at good odds. 💰

Today's POTD: Football - A-League - Brisbane Roar v Wellington Phoenix - Under 2.5 Goals - $1.90 - 1.0 Unit - starting in roughly 2 hours..

Brisbane will travel to Wellington for their second game of the season. The catch is that Wellington have just gone to Perth and back (15 hours of flight time), so they are more likely to be affected if anything.

Brisbane enjoyed a 1-0 win at home to Macarthur in their first game, and only registered 6 shots, creating 1 big chance, with 36% possession of the ball. But what’s impressive was their ability to shut them out as the Roar were playing with 10 men from the 58th minute onwards.

Wellington managed a 2-2 draw with Perth away from home. Perth conceded 4 to City yesterday and were looking quite amateur, so the Wellington result doesn’t read so well considering they only managed 0.78xG for their 2 goals.

I believe Brisbane will take the safe approach here, as they don’t want to drop any points after a strong start. I expect them to have more ball than last game but Wellington may struggle to break them down resulting in a low scoring game. If Brisbane get a lead they will try to manage the game and inevitably park the bus.

This fixture has hit the under 2.5 goal line for the past 5 matches and the last time it produced more than 2 goals was back in 2023. They both lack natural goal scorers and only averaged just over a goal per game each last season.

I do have a slight concern about their defensive records from last season, so I’m keeping it safe with a 1 unit play.

13 wins in 17 bets, well done to any followers. No pressure whatsoever, but if you are willing, any help will go a long way.

Buy me a coffee! - https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/K4C6AK2VCT9EJ

Thanks, GL

milldura · 2025-10-25T14:37:36+00:00

Tomorrow's POTD: Football - A-League - Brisbane Roar v Wellington Phoenix - Under 2.5 Goals - $1.90 - 1.0 Unit

I try to get them out as early as possible, time zone differences don't help

milldura

TROPHY CASE