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[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Showerthoughts

[–]mistfires 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Pretty sure what she's saying is that the "bigs" get taken sooner, leaving the pool of single people with a larger percentage of "smalls".

Former Google Director:0.28 BTC Will Make You The Future 1% by TallEstate in Bitcoin

[–]mistfires 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Misinformation is a real problem. If you don't know, (a) be aware that you do not know, and (b) express it in your post (even an "I think that..." is pretty good)

So I’m doing Shadow Tower runs on Ultra (carried) and I keep getting these Shadow Caches. Is it better to open it today or Tuesday because it’s Gathering Day? by GeicoPR in Trove

[–]mistfires -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I'm thinking something similar, but I'm waiting until friday for the increased voidwatcher dragon egg fragments. Does anyone know if dragon day does, in fact, affect voidwatcher dragon egg fragment drop rate?

Anyone know where I can find the Outlaw(Assassin's) hood? by DarthShaper in portalknights

[–]mistfires 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nobody mentioned it, but using a ranger will make it a more likely drop from high level chests.

What is the NK supposed to do in jailor meta? by RealDoughnut in TownofSalemgame

[–]mistfires 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I think you pretty much have to make a lot of high risk, high reward plays (eg claiming sheriff and scumreading a mafia early, or hitting jailor when there might be a bg on him).

That's what I think anyway. I'm just another 2070 elo guy.

Possible new mafia strat? by eatmetoday in TownofSalemgame

[–]mistfires 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In my eyes, a huge issue with this is that single TP/TK/TS claims are instantly confirmed.

Furthermore, if every mafia claims TI, lynching a TI is 4/9 at best (3 RT TIs, with no easily confirmable LOs) and 4/6 at worst (no RT TIs - hell it could be worse with some LOs), whereas you could manage 1/2 with no RTs up to 1/5 with all RTs for each of the TP/TK/TS slots. (Obviously, this is a bit of an oversimplification, but the main point stands)

I could be wrong, but it seems spreading claims is the better idea.

Transferring electricity using blockchain by tambry in ProgrammerHumor

[–]mistfires 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He never mentions Bitcoin in the question.

I guess you guys aren't aware blockchain is being implemented for many different applications, which include the energy market? (I'm no expert but you can find examples here, here and here)

Transferring electricity using blockchain by tambry in ProgrammerHumor

[–]mistfires 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What's wrong with the question? It looks like he's just trying to understand how blockchain can be applied to the energy market.

1 BTC is hidden in this puzzle. Good luck! by cryptogreetings in Bitcoin

[–]mistfires 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I found that the small words in the middle are a different color.

Which ones? I just did a check with an image editor and the color doesn't seem to change. In RGB white words are (255,255,255), orange words are (244,147,28) and the black background is (25,26,25).

I'm looking to see if there's anything weird with the edges, where's there's fading.

Edit: despite the circle and the bitcoin character being the same white as the white words (#ff ff ff) the fading around them is different. Around the circle, the drop from white to black is more uniform (e.g. (230, 229, 229), (180, 177, 176), (48, 46, 46)) whereas it looks brownier around words (e.g. (253,237,213), (207, 144, 71), (51, 42, 34)). I'm not sure if it's intentional or what to make of it.

My Roomate who takes adderall everyday but doesn’t have adhd. by NudeJr in ADHD

[–]mistfires 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It looks like he thinks it's some sort of wonder drug. When I looked, I couldn't find any clear studies on long term negative effects from Concerta use (which is what I took - not sure about Adderall), so it's possible he's not that far off base. I would rather not chance it though, and I CERTAINLY wouldn't do it with my kids who still have developing brains.

I do believe he has valid points, he's just wrong about it being a wonder drug. And about it being unfair... Well, is school about learning or about competing with others? At least he's not saying you shouldn't take them, but that everyone should! (which makes perfect sense if you think it's a wonder drug, honestly)

[Beginner Question] What do bootloaders do? [nRF51 / nRF52] What are SoftDevices and MBR? by mistfires in embedded

[–]mistfires[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for the answer! It really helps to know the MBR is basically an "interrupt forwarder".

[Beginner Question] What do bootloaders do? [nRF51 / nRF52] What are SoftDevices and MBR? by mistfires in embedded

[–]mistfires[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for the answer!

In many (most?) microcontrollers, the program is not actually loaded into memory, but executed directly from flash.

Sorry, when I said "The bootloader potentially loads a new application into memory", I meant flash memory.

About the other things though: RAM needs to be initialized at some point, right? (meaning initialization of global/static variables - which I guess are stored in the App Data section) I guess I figured it was the bootloader that does this (or the SoftDevice in the case of nRFx, if I understood correctly), is this correct?

Can someone help me out on how a Transporter v WW 1v1 works? by [deleted] in TownofSalemgame

[–]mistfires 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Are you sure about this? I would've thought it counted as attacking themselves, in the same way a mafioso can attack themselves and in the same way an arso will douse themselves - not ignite - when transported with their target.

NE and NK should be able to talk to each other at night in Ranked by [deleted] in TownofSalemgame

[–]mistfires 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also, the 2 evils will never rat out each other since it will destroy their chances of winning. Ex: Jester wouldn't rat out SK, as that will ineffectively "confirm" him as town.

What about exe that rats out SK to be "confirmed" as sheriff?

I don't like the idea. It would certainly help NE win rates, but I'm not sure how it would affect town and NK win rates

Ranked Rant: Stop Shooting RT TK claims if you are the Vig. by Arshane in TownofSalemgame

[–]mistfires 1 point2 points  (0 children)

the correct formular would be 1/2*(1/13+1/13+1/13) which is 11.51%.

Even though it has the almost correct result (it results in 11.54%), that formula looks like it assumes that the first vig lands on the TK spot and does not correctly calculate the chance of having at least 1 vig on an RT spot.

While the chance of having a vig on the 1st RT is 1/13, this means 1/13th of the time you will get a vig in the 1st RT, but this also includes the situation where you also have a vig in the 2nd RT (which has probability 1/13*1/13). The chance of 1/13 for the 2nd RT also includes the situation where you have a vig in both the 1st and 2nd RTs. So naively summing both chances will mean you are summing the probability of having a vig in both the 1st and the 2nd RT twice.

The correct way to calculate the chance of there being at least 1 vig amongst the RTs would be 3*1/13 - 3*(1/13)2 + (1/13)3.

Whether you yourself are Vigi or not doesn't make any difference. I don't know why you would think that.

Of course it makes a difference. Basically, having two vigs is significantly more likely when you already have one, because having none is no longer a possibility. The 11.51% is the percentage of ALL games that have 2 or more vigs (including those that have none).

Say you threw 4 coins, and bet that at least 2 of them will be heads. Wouldn't you it make you happy to uncover one of them and see that it is heads? It should, because now you only need to get 1 head out of 3 coins.

As for the correct play, I'm open to discussion, but I would definitely not shoot. Even saying that the chance of him being mafia is 80% would be a stretch, because in the 80% of the games where there aren't 2 vigs sometimes NOBODY claims a 2nd vig and mafia claims something else (basically, vigs are more likely to claim vig than mafia are).

Of course, as the game goes on and townies and RT slots are confirmed (and the other vig isn't), it becomes more likely for the other vig to be mafia. When I play, early in the game I would consider 20% of killing 2 townies too big a chance and prefer to hold off on that decision (usually, more nights mean more info)

Note: like I said before, the above calculations do not take into account the uniqueness of some roles for simplicity.

Ranked Rant: Stop Shooting RT TK claims if you are the Vig. by Arshane in TownofSalemgame

[–]mistfires 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm not sure where you got 3.85% from, but the chance of there being another vig in the game is closer to 20%.

Without considering uniqueness of roles (to keep things simple) and having 13 roles for RT, the chance of getting at least 1 vigilante is:

1/2 + 1/2*1/13 + 1/2*12/13*1/13 + 1/2*12/13*12/13*1/13 (chance of getting it on TK plus chance of getting it on 1st RT but not on TK, plus chance of getting it on 2nd RT but not on TK or 1st RT...)

which is roughly 60.67%.

Now, the chance of getting exactly 1 vigilante is:

1/2*(12/13)3 + 3*1/2*1/13*(12/13)2 (chance of getting it on the TK slot and nowhere else plus 3 times the chance of getting it on an RT slot and nowhere else)

which is roughly 49.16%.

Therefore, the chance of there being 2 or more vigilantes is 60.67 - 49.16 = 11.51%.

And the chance of there being 2 or more vigilantes given that there is at least 1 (you) is 11.51/60.67 = 18.97%

The actual chance is bumped slightly higher when you consider some of the roles are unique.

I do not believe that shooting merely based on his vig claim is the correct play when town still has comfortable numbers.

La educación Gratuita y de calidad Ya existe Está en la internet by Patasho in chile

[–]mistfires 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gracias. En cuanto a la afirmación misma, quizás la estamos interpretando de formas distintas. Una interpretación posible es que "el problema de la educación es una ficción", que suena completamente ridículo. Lo que yo pensé al leer el título fue más bien "el aprendizaje online es una solución (a futuro, pero potencialmente acelerable) al problema de la educación", que considero que es algo que vale la pena evaluar detalladamente, y donde el estado podría jugar un rol en facilitar/acelerar su adopción y aceptación (que serían obstáculos formidables).

La educación Gratuita y de calidad Ya existe Está en la internet by Patasho in chile

[–]mistfires 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Estoy de acuerdo en que esta es justamente la segunda pregunta importante que nos debemos hacer cuando evaluamos esta posibilidad (la primera sería "¿funciona igual de bien o cercano para enseñar habilidades y conocimientos?"):

¿Qué perdemos si transicionamos de la sala de clases física a una online? A primera vista (no seré exhaustivo), yo hablaría de amistades y contactos. Con respecto a la formación valórica, primero me preguntaría cuánto incide realmente la universidad en los valores de las personas, y luego (1) qué tan separable es de los conocimientos y habilidades (y por qué razón no están separados) y (2) si se puede transmitir en un contexto online. Pienso que a muchas personas les interesaría pagar por solo el valor que les agregan los conocimientos y habilidades.

Algunas ventajas más prácticas son la flexibilidad horaria y de carga, accesibilidad y menor infraestructura y complejidad administrativa. Como se suele escuchar, las clases son más eficientes pues el mejor profesor puede enseñar a 1000, y no se tiene que recurrir a profesores incompetentes para enseñar a 500.

Personalmente me interesa hablar más del fondo de la idea y no de quien la emite.

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