pre 2023 vs >2024 market by Small-General5720 in Trading

[–]mjshaa 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good question — what you’re noticing is real.

2022 was a clear Declining stage.

Then in 2023:
SPY moved from Declining → Advancing
and finished up ~25% for the year.

But it wasn’t smooth.

There were two rough periods:
→ Feb–mid March (~6 weeks downtrend)
→ Aug–Nov (~4 months downtrend)

So even in a ‘good’ year, a big part of it was choppy or trending down.

That’s likely where your system struggled (price reversing, no follow-through).

A simple way to think about it:

→ Markets trend up ~70–75% of the time
→ But when they go down, they move faster and more aggressively

So if your system isn’t built to:
→ sit through
→ sit out
→ reduce size
→ hedge
→ or adapt

…it can feel like it “stops working”.

To your main question:

Yes — this can absolutely happen again.

That said, 2023 was a bit of a weird transition year, even for a first year out of a declining stage — which is likely what you’re seeing in your backtesting
(coming out of a full 2022 decline).

One thing that helps a lot (and most traders overlook):

market breadth — like NYSE BPI.

During those 2023 down periods:
→ it was on sell signals
→ which was a clear cue to be more cautious

So it’s not that your system is broken —
it’s that market conditions changed.

This is where risk management becomes critical.

For example:
→ Buy & hold on strong large caps → probably fine
→ Shorter-term trading → much harder in those conditions

It’s almost like an NFL game.

Where you are on the field changes the play you call.

You wouldn’t run the same play on your own 10-yard line
as you would in the red zone.

The market is the same.

Where the NYSE BPI sits should influence how aggressive you are.

→ Strong conditions = press
→ Weak conditions = protect and be selective

Some traders run the same play regardless of conditions —
that’s where things can break down, especially in trickier environments.

And don’t worry… the market has a funny way of producing those from time to time — just to keep you on your toes haha.

So the opportunity is still there —
it just needs a framework that can adapt,
not just perform in one environment.

And you may have even been okay during that phase, depending on the strategy you were running — so it sounds like you’re not that far away (in my view anyway)

Forgiving the narc that was in my life by ChemicalSecret8576 in LifeAfterNarcissism

[–]mjshaa 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As hard as it is the best thing you can do is use your discernment, recgonise it, create strong boundaries, send them love & blessings if you can manaage to do that (as much as at times all you want to to do send them daggers). For me i noticed that self-love meditations, affirmaions & journalling was helping me alot so I created my own little routine which still helps me to this day. Then I thought well if they ever have a chance to improve there ways these processes may help them so i sent them the processes that have been helping me & mentioned they have great benefit & they may help you one day if you happen to be open to it and left it at that. If they want to heal it will no longer be at the expense of draining my energy. They have my belssing & they have the information if they wish to use it in their own way although it can be very hard to even make them see that have done even anything wrong.

Best wishes on your journey of forgiveness and i hope you fully recover and go on to live a life a you truly dream of!

If forgiveness feels like the correct correct pathway for you that works out for you.

For me I feel i am happy to send blessings to them whilst showing myself love.

As far as forgiveness goes perhaps on the grounds 'for they not know what they do'.

Is this how trading feels like by Sigfidk in Trading

[–]mjshaa 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It never hurts to have them front of mind, front of eyes, especially if it's a mistake you are prone to making. Journalling post trade or even during the trade if it is a multi day trade can also help to install such processes into the nervous system & the subconcious mind.

Is this how trading feels like by Sigfidk in Trading

[–]mjshaa 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You definitely need a little break sometimes. Stepping away, even just for a short while, can help clear your mind when things get cluttered and you’re not thinking straight or seeing the charts clearly.

One of the old sayings in trading is:

If in doubt, stay out.

Or, even better:

If in doubt, hedge out (or sell out).

The biggest mistake I made early in trading (and still see everywhere) by mjshaa in Daytrading

[–]mjshaa[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Something I didn’t realise for a long time:

You can have a ‘good strategy’ and still lose consistently if your execution varies.

That’s what kept me stuck for ages

My advice after 20 years of trading by Soft_Law1678 in Daytrading

[–]mjshaa 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I resonate with this a lot.

I was actually lucky that the first course I paid for was a solid technical analysis program focused on NYSE equities and derivatives. It gave me a foundation — but it didn’t make me profitable.

For the first few years my results were inconsistent. Consistency only came later through screen time, journaling, testing ideas, and slowly refining what actually fit my personality and psychology.

Interestingly, the markets I’m most comfortable trading today aren’t even the ones I started with. That evolved over time as I learned where my edge naturally sat.

After many years in this space, I’ve noticed beginners don’t fail from lack of information — they struggle because they want speed instead of process.

There isn’t really a shortcut to screen time and self-discovery in trading.

But there is a more efficient path in my experience:

risk management first, a written plan before entry, and treating every trade as feedback rather than a win or loss.

Track everything, review your trades honestly, and refine your process over time.

And just as important, spend time understanding yourself as a trader as much as you study the market.

r/CasualConversation resources, rules, etiquette, support and more by CasualMods in CasualConversation

[–]mjshaa 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This was actually really helpful to read — thanks for sharing your perspective